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Universitario crestUniversitario
v
Deportes Tolima crestDeportes Tolima

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Wed 27 May, 01:30

Universitario v Deportes Tolima Stats

Data last updated: Wed 10 Jun 2026, 10:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Universitario face Deportes Tolima in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Wed 27 May, 01:30. Visitors Deportes Tolima travel poorly, suffering four defeats in five away fixtures, alongside an active run of three consecutive losses overall. Universitario are robust at home with seven victories in ten matches.

BT4Y lean · price warning

If it changes the score from your prediction

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 83%, above the 61% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 1.2, BTTS No implies roughly 83%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 61%.
  • A damaging week has resulted in three consecutive defeats, highlighted by a collapse where they conceded three second-half goals against Atletico Nacional, followed by.
  • Universitario show a 40% BTTS rate and Deportes Tolima show a 20% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Universitario average 1 goals scored and Deportes Tolima average 1.4, so both attacking contributions need separating.
Price warning

If it changes the score from your prediction is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 83% while the model sits nearer 61% (-22.6 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 8.5 Corners shows a +20.4 pts edge at 1.83.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 61% for BTTS No sits against roughly 83% implied by the current price. Universitario show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Deportes Tolima show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. A damaging week has resulted in three consecutive defeats, highlighted by a collapse where they conceded three second-half goals against Atletico Nacional, followed by.

Model chance vs price61% model chance against roughly 83% implied
Negative
Universitario show a 40% BTTS rate and Deportes Tolima show.Visible data support
Positive
Universitario average 1 goals scored and Deportes Tolima average 1.Visible data support
Positive
A damaging week has resulted in three consecutive defeats.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: BTTS No is the preferred angle because a damaging week has resulted in three consecutive defeats, highlighted by a collapse where they conceded three second-half goals against Atletico Nacional, followed by a heavy continental loss. Universitario show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Deportes Tolima show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. The concern for Hector Cuper’s side is obvious.

Main risk

The concern for Hector Cuper’s side is obvious.

Key Data Signals

BTTS No evidence

A damaging week has resulted in three consecutive defeats, highlighted by a collapse where they conceded three second-half.

Universitario show a 40% BTTS rate and Deportes Tolima show a 20% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Universitario average 1 goals scored and Deportes Tolima average 1.4, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

BTTS No notes

  • Compare both teams on scoring rate and clean-sheet record before trusting BTTS No.
  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Universitario1
Avg goals scored
Deportes Tolima1.4
Universitario1.2
Avg goals conceded
Deportes Tolima1.2
Universitario40%
BTTS rate
Deportes Tolima20%
Universitario40%
Over 2.5 goals
Deportes Tolima80%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 83% · edge -22.6 pts
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 43%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 61%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 25%
5
Check odds @ 5
BTTS No does not fully support the current price: Universitario concede 1.2 on average and Deportes Tolima score 1.4, so the clean-sheet route has a data base.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 75% vs implied 55% · edge +20.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 64%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Deportes Tolima to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 43%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Deportes Tolima Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Universitario Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 8.5 Corners is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Universitario5.4
Avg corners for
Deportes Tolima5.4
Universitario11
Avg total corners
Deportes Tolima9.6
Universitario2
Avg yellow cards
Deportes Tolima2
Universitario10.6
Avg shots
Deportes Tolima11.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 75% vs implied 55% · edge +20.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 64%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Universitario

DLWLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 2L
20 May 2026A Club Nacional0-0
08 May 2026A Coquimbo Unido1-2
30 Apr 2026H Club Nacional4-2
15 Apr 2026H Coquimbo Unido0-2
08 Apr 2026A Deportes Tolima0-0

Deportes Tolima

LWWLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 4L
19 May 2026A Coquimbo Unido0-3
07 May 2026H Club Nacional3-0
29 Apr 2026H Coquimbo Unido3-0
14 Apr 2026A Club Nacional1-3
08 Apr 2026H Universitario0-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 79% vs implied 68% · edge +10.9 pts
1.47
Check odds @ 1.47
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Deportes Tolima to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Deportes Tolima Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Universitario Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Universitario to WinBetMGM guide price · model 32%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3
Check odds @ 3
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Universitario wins
1Draws
0Deportes Tolima wins
08 Apr 2026Deportes Tolima v Universitario0-0
Best odds for this sectionDeportes Tolima to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 35% · edge +17.9 pts
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 43%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Universitario to WinBetMGM guide price · model 32%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3
Check odds @ 3
The head-to-head sample gives context for Deportes Tolima to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Universitario6
Played
Deportes Tolima10
Universitario0.8
Avg goals for
Deportes Tolima1.1
Universitario1
Avg goals against
Deportes Tolima0.8
Universitario3
Clean sheets
Deportes Tolima6
Best odds for this sectionDeportes Tolima to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 35% · edge +17.9 pts
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Load more odds for this section
Deportes Tolima Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Universitario Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Universitario to WinBetMGM guide price · model 32%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Season data supports Deportes Tolima to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Deportes Tolima862221
4Universitario66132-1
CONMEBOL Libertadores standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Universitario Over 2.5
80%Deportes Tolima Over 2.5
0H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Universitario sit at 40% and Deportes Tolima sit at 80% with the H2H average at 0 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Universitario v Deportes Tolima prediction

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Next step

Betting context

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