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Novorizontino crestNovorizontino
v
Fortaleza EC crestFortaleza EC

Serie B | Sat 07 Nov, 19:10

Novorizontino v Fortaleza EC Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 07:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Novorizontino leads Serie B with a strong points tally and hosts Fortaleza EC, who are fifth but within striking distance. Novorizontino's recent form shows solid attacking output and defensive resilience, while Fortaleza EC have been less consistent scoring and conceding at similar rates. This fixture pits the league leaders' home strength and attacking against a competitive but slightly less potent Fortaleza side, setting up a tactical battle where Novorizontino's momentum and home advantage are key factors.

BT4Y best bet

Novorizontino to Win

  • Novorizontino tops the league with 67 points, five clear of Fortaleza EC.
  • Novorizontino averages 2.4 goals per game, significantly higher than Fortaleza's 1.4.
  • Fortaleza EC concedes 0.8 goals per game, matching Novorizontino's defensive record.
  • Novorizontino's recent form includes 13 points from last matches, showing strong momentum.
  • Novorizontino's average shots on target (5.8) outpace Fortaleza's 3.8, indicating better attacking pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Novorizontino to win with a 67.4% chance, reflecting their superior league position, higher scoring rate, and better recent form. Novorizontino's offensive efficiency, highlighted by 15.8 shots per game and a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, contrasts with Fortaleza's more modest attacking numbers. Defensive solidity on both sides suggests a competitive match, but Novorizontino's home advantage and attacking depth provide a clear edge. The data quality is robust, supporting in this selection.

League PositionNovorizontino 1st vs Fortaleza 5th
Strong positive
Goals Scored per Game2.4 (Novorizontino) vs 1.4 (Fortaleza)
Strong positive
Recent Points13 (Novorizontino) vs 9 (Fortaleza)
Positive
Shots on Target per Game5.8 (Novorizontino) vs 3.8 (Fortaleza)
Positive
Defensive Concession Rate0.8 goals per game both teams
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Novorizontino's home form and attacking firepower make them the tactical favorite to secure victory. Their higher league standing and recent momentum underpin the data-driven in this pick, suggesting they can capitalize on Fortaleza's less potent offense to claim three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Novorizontino's blend of attacking volume and defensive stability at home creates a compelling case for their win, especially against a Fortaleza side that struggles to match their offensive intensity.”

Key Data Signals

Novorizontino to Win evidence

Novorizontino tops the league with 67 points, five clear of Fortaleza EC.

Novorizontino averages 2.4 goals per game, significantly higher than Fortaleza's 1.4.

Fortaleza EC concedes 0.8 goals per game, matching Novorizontino's defensive record.

Novorizontino's recent form includes 13 points from last matches, showing strong momentum.

What To Watch In The Data

Novorizontino to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, Novorizontino has a 60% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, reflecting an attacking tempo conducive to scoring.
  • Fortaleza's 40% rate suggests a more cautious approach.
  • The average goals in their single head-to-head meeting was low (1), but current form favors a more open game with Novorizontino pressing for goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Novorizontino2.4
Avg goals scored
Fortaleza EC1.4
Novorizontino0.8
Avg goals conceded
Fortaleza EC0.8
Novorizontino60%
BTTS rate
Fortaleza EC40%
Novorizontino60%
Over 2.5 goals
Fortaleza EC40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 52% · edge +10.9 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 61%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The goal trends favor Novorizontino's attacking prowess, with a 60% over 2.5 goals rate and 60% BTTS rate, indicating open play and scoring opportunities. Fortaleza's lower 40% rates suggest they are less likely to contribute goals, supporting a Novorizontino win with goals scored but possibly limited reply.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Novorizontino

WWDWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
01 Nov 2026H Operario-PR2-1
24 Oct 2026A Atletico Goianiense1-0
18 Oct 2026A Vila Nova2-2
12 Oct 2026H Ponte Preta5-1
08 Oct 2026A Nautico Recife2-0

Fortaleza EC

DDWDW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 6D 0L
02 Nov 2026H Atletico Goianiense0-0
24 Oct 2026A Ponte Preta2-2
17 Oct 2026A Sport Recife2-0
12 Oct 2026H CRB2-2
08 Oct 2026A America Mineiro1-0
Market aligned with main pickNovorizontino to WinBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.8 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Novorizontino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Novorizontino's recent form is strong, accumulating 13 points with consistent goal scoring (2.4 per game) and solid defense (0.8 conceded). Fortaleza's 9 points and lower scoring rate reflect a less potent attack, suggesting Novorizontino's momentum and will be decisive in this fixture.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNovorizontino to WinBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.8 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Novorizontino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
The 67.4% for Novorizontino to Win sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (+11.8 pts). Novorizontino have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 9 for Fortaleza EC.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Novorizontino Over 2.5
40%Fortaleza EC Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, Novorizontino has a 60% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, reflecting an attacking tempo conducive to scoring. Fortaleza's 40% rate suggests a more cautious approach. The average goals in their single head-to-head meeting was low (1), but current form favors a more open game with Novorizontino pressing for goals.

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