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Macarthur crestMacarthur
v
Brisbane Roar crestBrisbane Roar

A-League | Sun 08 Nov, 04:00

Macarthur v Brisbane Roar Stats

Data last updated: Sun 08 Nov 2026, 20:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Macarthur hosts Brisbane Roar in an A-League clash where both teams are closely matched in the standings, sitting fourth and fifth respectively. Macarthur has shown solid defensive resilience, conceding less than one goal per game, while Brisbane Roar boasts a slightly higher scoring rate but also concedes more. The match promises tactical discipline from Macarthur, aiming to leverage home advantage and recent form to secure a vital win. Brisbane Roar's attacking threat, led by key players, will test Macarthur's organized backline in a contest that could hinge on fine margins.

BT4Y match pick

Macarthur to Win

  • Macarthur holds a slight edge in recent form with 5 points versus Brisbane Roar's 4.
  • Brisbane Roar averages more shots (16.5) and shots on target (5) per game than Macarthur.
  • Macarthur concedes fewer goals per game (0.67) compared to Brisbane Roar (1.0).
  • Both teams have a history of goals in their matches, with a 3.5 average goals per game in head-to-head encounters.
  • Fraser contributes significantly with 2 assists and 6.55 key passes per 90 minutes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Macarthur to win with a 45.1% chance, slightly above the implied market chance of 40%, indicating a positive . Macarthur's defensive solidity, combined with effective attacking contributions from players like R. Toure, underpins this . Brisbane Roar's higher shot volume is offset by Macarthur's ability to limit goals conceded. The balanced form and tactical discipline suggest Macarthur can capitalize on home conditions to secure victory. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance37.8% model chance vs 39.2% implied (-1.4 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance37.8% model chance vs 39.2% implied (-1.4 pts)
Positive
Value Edge37.8% model chance vs 39.2% implied (-1.4 pts)
Positive
Defensive StrengthMacarthur concedes 0.67 goals per game
Strong positive
Attacking ThreatR. Fraser 2 assists and 6.55 key passes per 90
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Macarthur's disciplined defensive approach and effective creative play from R. Fraser provide a tactical edge in this closely matched fixture. Their ability to limit Brisbane Roar's scoring opportunities, combined with recent form, makes a home win the most plausible outcome. The data supports Macarthur's slight superiority in both defense and chance creation, justifying in their victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form-based advantage

“Macarthur's structured defense and creative midfield presence give them a tactical advantage in this tight A-League contest, making their home win a compelling prospect.”

Key Data Signals

Macarthur to Win evidence

Macarthur holds a slight edge in recent form with 5 points versus Brisbane Roar's 4.

Brisbane Roar averages more shots (16.5) and shots on target (5) per game than Macarthur.

Macarthur concedes fewer goals per game (0.67) compared to Brisbane Roar (1.0).

Both teams have a history of goals in their matches, with a 3.5 average goals per game in head-to-head encounters.

What To Watch In The Data

Macarthur to Win notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches between Macarthur and Brisbane Roar have averaged 3.5 goals per game, indicating a trend towards open, attacking encounters.
  • This suggests a likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals, driven by both teams' offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities.
  • The tempo and chance creation in these fixtures support expectations of multiple goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Macarthur1
Avg goals scored
Brisbane Roar1.5
Macarthur0.67
Avg goals conceded
Brisbane Roar1
Macarthur67%
BTTS rate
Brisbane Roar100%
Macarthur33%
Over 2.5 goals
Brisbane Roar50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams have shown tendencies for goals, with a 3.5 average in their last 10 head-to-head matches and a combined BTTS rate of 83.5%. Macarthur's 67% BTTS rate and Brisbane Roar's 100% BTTS rate indicate that both sides often find the net, suggesting an open game with scoring opportunities at both ends.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMacarthur to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 38% vs implied 39% · edge -1.4 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Macarthur Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 37.8% for Macarthur to Win sits against roughly 39.2% implied by the current price (-1.4 pts). Macarthur have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for Brisbane Roar.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Macarthur

DDW
Last 51W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 0L
31 Oct 2026H Western Sydney Wanderers0-0
24 Oct 2026A Newcastle Jets1-1
17 Oct 2026H Perth Glory2-1

Brisbane Roar

DW
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
30 Oct 2026H Auckland1-1
23 Oct 2026H Perth Glory2-1
Market aligned with main pickMacarthur to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 38% vs implied 39% · edge -1.4 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Macarthur Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Macarthur's recent form shows a slight edge with 5 points gained compared to Brisbane Roar's 4, reflecting a marginally better ability to convert chances and maintain defensive stability. Macarthur's lower goals conceded per game (0.67) versus Brisbane Roar's 1.0 supports their defensive reliability. Brisbane Roar's higher goals for (1.5) indicates offensive potency but also defensive vulnerability, suggesting Macarthur's form is more balanced for a win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Macarthur Over 2.5
50%Brisbane Roar Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches between Macarthur and Brisbane Roar have averaged 3.5 goals per game, indicating a trend towards open, attacking encounters. This suggests a likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals, driven by both teams' offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities. The tempo and chance creation in these fixtures support expectations of multiple goals.

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