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Vila Nova crestVila Nova
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Criciuma crestCriciuma

Serie B | Sat 07 Nov, 23:00

Vila Nova v Criciuma Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 07:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash features Vila Nova hosting Criciuma in a tightly contested battle near the top of the table. Vila Nova currently holds third place with 63 points, just a point ahead of fourth-placed Criciuma on 62 points, making this match pivotal for promotion ambitions. Vila Nova has shown a tendency for higher-scoring games with a 60% Over 2.5 rate, while Criciuma’s defensive solidity is notable, conceding only 0.6 goals per game. Criciuma’s recent form includes 9 points from their last matches, suggesting growing momentum as they aim to upset the home side.

BT4Y best bet

Criciuma to Win

  • Criciuma has a model-implied win chance of 53.1%, with offering strong value at 3.4.
  • Vila Nova concedes more goals on average (1.4) compared to Criciuma (0.6), indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Criciuma’s recent form shows 9 points gained, outpacing Vila Nova’s 6 points in recent matches.
  • Vila Nova averages more shots per game (14) but Criciuma’s defense limits quality chances effectively.
  • Head-to-head average goals are low at 1.6 per game, favoring a tight contest with Criciuma’s defensive edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Criciuma to win due to their strong defensive record conceding just 0.6 goals per game, combined with recent form momentum earning 9 points compared to Vila Nova's 6. Despite Vila Nova’s higher shot volume, Criciuma’s ability to limit shots on target and maintain discipline suggests they can capitalize on counter opportunities. The pricing reflects significant value as the imply only a 29.4% chance, well below the model’s 53.1% win probability. This mismatch between price and probability makes Criciuma an attractive underdog pick with solid football reasoning.

Defensive strength0.6 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Recent form9 points in recent matches
Positive
Price value44.4% model chance vs 29.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Shot volume vs qualityVila Nova shoots more but Criciuma limits shots on target
Positive
Head-to-head goalsLow average goals (1.6) favoring tight match
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Criciuma’s solid defensive record and recent form momentum make them a compelling choice to upset Vila Nova in this crucial Serie B fixture. Their ability to absorb pressure and exploit counterattacks aligns well with the tactical demands of this tight contest. The data supports Criciuma’s chances of securing a valuable away win despite Vila Nova’s home standing and offensive efforts.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form-based edge for Criciuma

“Criciuma’s disciplined defensive setup combined with their recent points surge positions them well to challenge Vila Nova’s home advantage. Their capacity to frustrate opponents and strike on the break is a key tactical edge in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Criciuma to Win evidence

Criciuma has a model-implied win chance of 53.1%, with offering strong value at 3.4.

Vila Nova concedes more goals on average (1.4) compared to Criciuma (0.6), indicating defensive vulnerability.

Criciuma’s recent form shows 9 points gained, outpacing Vila Nova’s 6 points in recent matches.

Vila Nova averages more shots per game (14) but Criciuma’s defense limits quality chances effectively.

What To Watch In The Data

Criciuma to Win notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is low at 1.6 per game, indicating tight defensive contests.
  • Vila Nova’s 60% Over 2.5 rate contrasts with Criciuma’s 20%, suggesting this match may lean towards a lower-scoring affair driven by Criciuma’s defensive approach and tactical discipline, limiting open-play chances and goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vila Nova1.6
Avg goals scored
Criciuma1
Vila Nova1.4
Avg goals conceded
Criciuma0.6
Vila Nova60%
BTTS rate
Criciuma20%
Vila Nova60%
Over 2.5 goals
Criciuma20%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 62% · edge +4.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Goals and BTTS trends show Vila Nova favors higher-scoring games with a 60% Over 2.5 and BTTS rate, while Criciuma’s matches tend to be lower scoring with only 20% Over 2.5 and BTTS rates. This contrast indicates a tactical battle between Vila Nova’s attacking intent and Criciuma’s defensive discipline, likely resulting in a tight scoreline with limited goal exchanges.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCriciuma to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
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Criciuma Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The 44.4% for Criciuma to Win sits against roughly 29.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Criciuma have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 6 for Vila Nova.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vila Nova

DLDWD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
31 Oct 2026H Juventude2-2
24 Oct 2026A São Bernardo2-3
18 Oct 2026H Novorizontino2-2
11 Oct 2026A Nautico Recife2-0
08 Oct 2026H Cuiaba0-0

Criciuma

WLWWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 0D 5L
30 Oct 2026H Ponte Preta2-0
24 Oct 2026A Sport Recife1-2
18 Oct 2026A São Bernardo1-0
12 Oct 2026H America Mineiro1-0
08 Oct 2026A Ceara0-1
Market aligned with main pickCriciuma to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Criciuma Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Recent form favors Criciuma, who have collected 9 points in their latest matches compared to Vila Nova’s 6 points. Criciuma’s improved momentum and defensive consistency underpin their , while Vila Nova’s form shows vulnerability in defense despite decent attacking output, suggesting Criciuma can exploit recent weaknesses.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Vila Nova Over 2.5
20%Criciuma Over 2.5
1.6H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is low at 1.6 per game, indicating tight defensive contests. Vila Nova’s 60% Over 2.5 rate contrasts with Criciuma’s 20%, suggesting this match may lean towards a lower-scoring affair driven by Criciuma’s defensive approach and tactical discipline, limiting open-play chances and goals.

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