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Philadelphia Union crestPhiladelphia Union
v
Toronto FC crestToronto FC

Major League Soccer | Sat 07 Nov, 21:00

Philadelphia Union v Toronto FC Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 07:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Philadelphia Union face Toronto FC in a crucial Major League Soccer clash where both teams have shown attacking intent recently. Philadelphia Union have averaged 1.2 goals per game but maintain a 60% rate for matches exceeding 2.5 goals, while Toronto FC have been more prolific with 2 goals per game and an 80% over 2.5 goals rate. Toronto FC’s leaky defense concedes 2.2 goals on average, suggesting an open game. Both sides have momentum from recent points gained, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter with tactical openness and offensive ambition.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC combined average 3.5 goals per match in their last 10 meetings.
  • Toronto FC have an 80% over 2.5 goals rate this season, indicating frequent high-scoring games.
  • Philadelphia Union average 17.2 shots per game, showing offensive pressure potential.
  • Top attackers like M. Morgan contribute significantly to shot volume and goal threat.
  • Recent form shows both teams involved in matches with multiple goals, supporting an over 3.5 goals angle.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 57.6% chance for over 3.5 goals, slightly above the implied 54.6% chance from , indicating a small positive . Both teams have strong attacking stats and recent form supporting high goal counts. Philadelphia Union’s 17.2 shots per game and Toronto FC’s 2 goals per game combined with defensive vulnerabilities suggest multiple scoring opportunities. The 3.5 goals threshold fits the pattern of their recent encounters and league trends, making this a well-supported selection with standard stake .

Model Chance57.6% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+3 pts)
Positive
Implied Chance57.6% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+3 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge57.6% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+3 pts)
Positive
Confidence61
Positive
Recent Over 2.5 RatesPhiladelphia 60%, Toronto 80%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC pushing forward aggressively. Toronto FC’s higher scoring rate and defensive frailties combined with Philadelphia’s shot volume create a strong case for a high-scoring match. The data and tactical outlook suggest over 3.5 goals is a plausible outcome in this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match scoring potential

“This matchup features two teams with attacking firepower but defensive vulnerabilities, making a high-scoring game likely. The balance of offensive pressure and defensive lapses points to multiple goals, aligning well with the over 3.5 goals selection.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC combined average 3.5 goals per match in their last 10 meetings.

Toronto FC have an 80% over 2.5 goals rate this season, indicating frequent high-scoring games.

Philadelphia Union average 17.2 shots per game, showing offensive pressure potential.

Top attackers like M. Morgan contribute significantly to shot volume and goal threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 3.5 goals, indicating a trend toward high-scoring encounters.
  • This sample suggests a tempo and style conducive to multiple goals, supporting the over 2.5 goals trend and reinforcing the over 3.5 goals selection for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Philadelphia Union1.2
Avg goals scored
Toronto FC2
Philadelphia Union1.2
Avg goals conceded
Toronto FC2.2
Philadelphia Union60%
BTTS rate
Toronto FC80%
Philadelphia Union60%
Over 2.5 goals
Toronto FC80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 55% · edge +3 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 88%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC have high over 2.5 goals rates, 60% and 80% respectively, and their last 10 meetings average 3.5 goals per game. Toronto FC’s defensive record concedes over two goals per match, supporting the likelihood of multiple goals and BTTS scenarios.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Major League Soccer analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Toronto FC Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 43%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Toronto FC to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Philadelphia Union Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
The 57.6% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+3 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Philadelphia Union and 80% for Toronto FC, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Philadelphia Union

LDLDW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
31 Oct 2026A FC Cincinnati0-1
29 Oct 2026A Nashville SC0-0
25 Oct 2026H New England Revolution1-2
17 Oct 2026H Charlotte2-2
15 Oct 2026A Chicago Fire3-1

Toronto FC

LWLWD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
01 Nov 2026A Atlanta United FC1-3
28 Oct 2026H DC United2-1
24 Oct 2026A Columbus Crew2-4
18 Oct 2026A New York Red Bulls2-0
15 Oct 2026H Orlando City SC3-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Toronto FC Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 43%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Toronto FC to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Philadelphia Union Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Philadelphia Union to WinBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Recent form shows Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC involved in matches with frequent goals, with Philadelphia’s over 2.5 goals rate at 60% and Toronto’s at 80%. Both teams have earned points recently, indicating motivation to attack and secure a positive result, which supports a high-scoring game.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Philadelphia Union Over 2.5
80%Toronto FC Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 3.5 goals, indicating a trend toward high-scoring encounters. This sample suggests a tempo and style conducive to multiple goals, supporting the over 2.5 goals trend and reinforcing the over 3.5 goals selection for this fixture.

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