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Austin crestAustin
v
Portland Timbers crestPortland Timbers

Major League Soccer | Sun 08 Nov, 00:00

Austin v Portland Timbers Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 04:38 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Major League Soccer clash features Portland Timbers aiming to extend their recent strong form against Austin, who have struggled defensively. Portland sits comfortably higher in the standings and boasts a more potent attack, averaging 1.8 goals per game compared to Austin's 1.2. Portland's ability to control tempo and create quality chances, combined with Austin's defensive vulnerabilities conceding 2.4 goals per match, sets the stage for a competitive encounter with Portland favored to secure victory.

BT4Y best bet

Portland Timbers to Win

  • Portland Timbers have a 70% to win, with positive value at 1.7 .
  • Austin concedes 2.4 goals per match, indicating defensive weakness.
  • Portland averages 16 shots and 6.4 shots on target per game, showing attacking pressure.
  • Austin's recent form yields only 3 points versus Portland's 10 in the same period.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.1, suggesting moderate scoring potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Portland Timbers to win due to their superior recent form, higher league standing, and stronger offensive metrics. Portland's average of 1.8 goals per game and better shot volume (16 shots, 6.4 on target) contrast with Austin's defensive struggles, conceding 2.4 goals per match. The implied value at 1.7 reflects a solid chance, supported by Portland's ability to exploit Austin's defensive gaps. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Recent formPortland 10 points vs Austin 3 points
Strong positive
Goals scored per gamePortland 1.8 vs Austin 1.2
Positive
Goals conceded per gameAustin 2.4 vs Portland 1.4
Strong positive
Shots per gamePortland 16 vs Austin 13
Positive
Model chance vs Implied chance70% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+11.2 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Portland Timbers' superior attacking output and recent form make them the likely winners in this matchup. Their ability to generate more shots and convert chances contrasts with Austin's defensive frailties, suggesting Portland will capitalize on opportunities to secure the win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Portland's consistent offensive pressure and higher league position give them a clear edge over Austin, whose defensive record leaves them vulnerable. Expect Portland to control the game and take advantage of Austin's weaknesses.”

Key Data Signals

Portland Timbers to Win evidence

Portland Timbers have a 70% to win, with positive value at 1.7 .

Austin concedes 2.4 goals per match, indicating defensive weakness.

Portland averages 16 shots and 6.4 shots on target per game, showing attacking pressure.

Austin's recent form yields only 3 points versus Portland's 10 in the same period.

What To Watch In The Data

Portland Timbers to Win notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals tally is 2.1, with Austin showing a 100% over 2.5 goals rate recently, suggesting open games with scoring opportunities.
  • Portland's 60% over 2.5 rate indicates a moderate scoring tempo, supporting expectations of a match with multiple goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Austin1.2
Avg goals scored
Portland Timbers1.8
Austin2.4
Avg goals conceded
Portland Timbers1.4
Austin100%
BTTS rate
Portland Timbers60%
Austin100%
Over 2.5 goals
Portland Timbers60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 71% · edge +4.6 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Austin's 100% over 2.5 goals and BTTS rates contrast with Portland's 60% rates, indicating a likelihood of goals from both sides. The average of 2.1 goals in their last 10 meetings supports a moderately open game with scoring chances for both teams, aligning with the attacking tendencies observed.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPortland Timbers to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 59% · edge +11.2 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Portland Timbers Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The 70% for Portland Timbers to Win sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+11.2 pts). Portland Timbers have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 3 for Austin.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Austin

LLWLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
31 Oct 2026A Los Angeles Galaxy1-4
29 Oct 2026H Real Salt Lake1-2
25 Oct 2026A Sporting Kansas City2-1
18 Oct 2026H Vancouver Whitecaps1-2
15 Oct 2026A Los Angeles FC1-3

Portland Timbers

WWWDL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
02 Nov 2026H Houston Dynamo3-1
29 Oct 2026A St. Louis City3-2
25 Oct 2026H Charlotte3-2
18 Oct 2026H Colorado Rapids0-0
15 Oct 2026A Los Angeles Galaxy0-2
Market aligned with main pickPortland Timbers to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 59% · edge +11.2 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Portland Timbers Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Portland Timbers have accumulated 10 points recently, showcasing strong momentum and , whereas Austin's 3 points reflect struggles in converting chances and defensive lapses. This form disparity favors Portland's ability to impose their game plan and secure the win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Austin Over 2.5
60%Portland Timbers Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals tally is 2.1, with Austin showing a 100% over 2.5 goals rate recently, suggesting open games with scoring opportunities. Portland's 60% over 2.5 rate indicates a moderate scoring tempo, supporting expectations of a match with multiple goals.

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