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Aarhus crestAarhus
v
AC Horsens crestAC Horsens

Superliga | Sun 08 Nov, 13:00

Aarhus v AC Horsens Stats

Data last updated: Sun 08 Nov 2026, 20:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Danish Superliga clash features Aarhus hosting AC Horsens in a mid-table battle where Horsens hold a slight edge in recent form and league standing. Aarhus have scored 1.6 goals per game but conceded 1.2, while Horsens average 2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, indicating a potentially open contest. Both teams share similar BTTS and Over 2.5 rates at 60%, suggesting attacking intent. Horsens' recent momentum and slightly higher league position add intrigue to this fixture, with tactical discipline and finishing likely to be decisive factors under moderate pressure.

BT4Y best bet

AC Horsens or Draw

  • AC Horsens or Draw offers 18.2% with 62.6% versus 44.4% implied chance
  • Both teams average 60% BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals rates, indicating attacking openness
  • AC Horsens rank 7th with 16 points, slightly ahead of 9th-placed Aarhus on 12 points
  • AC Horsens average more shots (15.4) and shots on target (5.2) per game than Aarhus (13.2 shots, 3 SOT)

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors AC Horsens or Draw with a 62.6% chance, reflecting Horsens' stronger recent form and superior attacking output, averaging 2 goals per game and more shots on target. The 18.2% at 2.25 highlights a favorable price for backing Horsens to avoid defeat. Both teams have similar BTTS and Over 2.5 rates, but Horsens' higher shot volume and league position support the double chance. No data limitations affect , making this a solid value pick with standard staking recommended.

Model Chance70% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+8.3 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance70% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+8.3 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge70% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+8.3 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormAC Horsens better recent points and goal output
Positive
Shots & SOTHorsens averages 15.4 shots and 5.2 SOT vs Aarhus 13.2 and 3
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Backing AC Horsens or Draw is tactically sound given Horsens' superior attacking metrics and recent form. Their higher shot volume and league standing suggest they can avoid defeat, while Aarhus' defensive vulnerabilities increase the chance of goals. This double chance bet balances the risk of an open game with Horsens' momentum, making it a prudent choice for this Superliga fixture.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form-based rationale

“AC Horsens' greater shot threat and recent points haul make the double chance a compelling option, especially as Aarhus have shown defensive frailties that Horsens can exploit.”

Key Data Signals

AC Horsens or Draw evidence

AC Horsens or Draw offers 18.2% with 62.6% versus 44.4% implied chance

Both teams average 60% BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals rates, indicating attacking openness

AC Horsens rank 7th with 16 points, slightly ahead of 9th-placed Aarhus on 12 points

AC Horsens average more shots (15.4) and shots on target (5.2) per game than Aarhus (13.2 shots, 3 SOT)

What To Watch In The Data

AC Horsens or Draw notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, aligning with both teams' current Over 2.5 rates of 60%.
  • This trend indicates a match with a decent tempo and goal-scoring opportunities, supporting expectations for an open game with multiple goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Aarhus1.6
Avg goals scored
AC Horsens2
Aarhus1.2
Avg goals conceded
AC Horsens1.4
Aarhus60%
BTTS rate
AC Horsens60%
Aarhus60%
Over 2.5 goals
AC Horsens60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 62% · edge +8.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams maintain a 60% rate for BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals, signaling an open game with attacking intent from both sides. Horsens' higher average goals per game (2.0) compared to Aarhus (1.6) and similar defensive concessions suggest a match likely to feature multiple scoring opportunities and goals from both teams.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 62% · edge +8.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
AC Horsens Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
AC Horsens to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Aarhus Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
The 70% for AC Horsens or Draw sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (+8.3 pts).
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Aarhus

LWDWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
01 Nov 2026A Brondby0-2
25 Oct 2026H Viborg2-1
18 Oct 2026A FC Copenhagen1-1
12 Oct 2026H Sonderjyske3-0
20 Sep 2026A AC Horsens2-2

AC Horsens

LWDDD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
01 Nov 2026A Viborg0-1
25 Oct 2026H Sonderjyske5-1
16 Oct 2026H Randers FC0-0
11 Oct 2026A Silkeborg3-3
20 Sep 2026H Aarhus2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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AC Horsens Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
AC Horsens to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
5
Check odds @ 5
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 77%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Aarhus Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Aarhus to WinBetUK guide price · model 49%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Recent form favors AC Horsens, who have accumulated 6 points in their last matches compared to Aarhus' 8 points but with a higher goal scoring rate (2.0 vs 1.6). Horsens' ability to create more shots and shots on target reflects growing attacking , supporting the double chance pick to avoid defeat.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Aarhus Over 2.5
60%AC Horsens Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, aligning with both teams' current Over 2.5 rates of 60%. This trend indicates a match with a decent tempo and goal-scoring opportunities, supporting expectations for an open game with multiple goals.

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