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FC Dallas crestFC Dallas
v
Colorado Rapids crestColorado Rapids

Major League Soccer | Sun 08 Nov, 00:00

FC Dallas v Colorado Rapids Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 04:38 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

FC Dallas and Colorado Rapids meet in a crucial Major League Soccer clash with playoff implications. FC Dallas sits second in the standings, showing solid defensive form, while Colorado Rapids, ranked ninth, have struggled defensively but maintain a competitive attack. Both teams average over one goal per game, suggesting an open contest. The match promises intensity and physicality, with both sides needing points to secure postseason positions. Tactical setups hint at aggressive pressing and midfield battles, likely increasing fouls and disciplinary actions in a high-stakes environment.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

  • Both teams average over 2 yellow cards combined per game, with Colorado Rapids at 3.2 and FC Dallas at 2.2 yellows per match.
  • Recent form shows both sides involved in competitive, physical games, increasing card likelihood.
  • Key players like J. Atencio and Samuel Sarver have high card risk indexes, indicating individual discipline challenges.
  • The model estimates a 73.1% chance for over 3.5 cards, offering positive value against the implied .
  • The fixture stakes and rivalry intensity typically drive up fouls and cautions in MLS matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a strong probability (73.1%) for over 3.5 cards, supported by both teams' aggressive defensive styles and recent disciplinary records. Colorado Rapids' higher average yellows (3.2) and FC Dallas' solid but physical approach contribute to this. Key players with elevated card risk, such as J. Atencio and Samuel Sarver, increase the likelihood of multiple cautions. The match's competitive stakes and tactical intensity further elevate foul counts, making the over 3.5 cards a compelling pick with a positive of 11.4%.

Model Probability73.1% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+11.4 pts)
Strong positive
Colorado Rapids Yellow Cards3.2 average per game
Strong positive
FC Dallas Yellow Cards2.2 average per game
Positive
Key Players Card RiskJ. Atencio and Samuel Sarver high card risk indexes
Positive
Match Stakes and IntensityHigh playoff relevance increases physicality
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The over 3.5 cards bet fits the match context where both FC Dallas and Colorado Rapids play with physical intensity and have players prone to cautions. Colorado's higher yellow card average and FC Dallas' aggressive defending suggest a game with multiple fouls and disciplinary actions. The data supports a lively contest where referees are likely to issue several cards, making this a tactically and statistically sound selection.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“This fixture’s competitive nature and player discipline profiles point to a high card count. With key players on both sides carrying card risks and the playoff stakes elevating intensity, over 3.5 cards is a well-founded expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Both teams average over 2 yellow cards combined per game, with Colorado Rapids at 3.2 and FC Dallas at 2.2 yellows per match.

Recent form shows both sides involved in competitive, physical games, increasing card likelihood.

Key players like J. Atencio and Samuel Sarver have high card risk indexes, indicating individual discipline challenges.

The model estimates a 73.1% chance for over 3.5 cards, offering positive value against the implied .

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.3, indicating open games with attacking intent.
  • While this panel focuses on over 2.5 goals trends, the tempo and openness also suggest frequent challenges and fouls, indirectly supporting a higher card count in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FC Dallas1.4
Avg goals scored
Colorado Rapids1.4
FC Dallas1
Avg goals conceded
Colorado Rapids1.6
FC Dallas40%
BTTS rate
Colorado Rapids60%
FC Dallas40%
Over 2.5 goals
Colorado Rapids60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 64% · edge -0.4 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams average 1.4 goals per game, with Colorado Rapids having a 60% BTTS rate and FC Dallas 40%. While goals are moderate, the physical nature of MLS matches and this fixture’s stakes imply that fouls and cards may be more decisive than scoring trends in this game.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FC Dallas

DLWDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
31 Oct 2026A Sporting Kansas City1-1
29 Oct 2026H Columbus Crew0-2
25 Oct 2026H San Jose Earthquakes3-0
18 Oct 2026A Houston Dynamo2-2
15 Oct 2026H Seattle Sounders1-0

Colorado Rapids

LDWDD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 6D 2L
01 Nov 2026H Chicago Fire2-4
29 Oct 2026A San Jose Earthquakes2-2
25 Oct 2026H Vancouver Whitecaps1-0
18 Oct 2026A Portland Timbers0-0
15 Oct 2026H Minnesota United FC2-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 81% vs implied 75% · edge +5.7 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
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FC Dallas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
FC Dallas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Colorado Rapids Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Colorado Rapids to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Recent form data shows FC Dallas earning 8 points and Colorado Rapids 6 in their last matches, with both teams involved in competitive, physical games. The elevated yellow card averages and aggressive play styles in recent fixtures support the likelihood of surpassing 3.5 cards in this encounter.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 62% · edge +11.4 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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FC Dallas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
FC Dallas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Colorado Rapids Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Colorado Rapids to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
The 73.1% for Over 3.5 Cards sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (+11.4 pts). Colorado Rapids have the higher yellow-card average at 3.2, while FC Dallas sit at 2.2.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%FC Dallas Over 2.5
60%Colorado Rapids Over 2.5
3.3H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.3, indicating open games with attacking intent. While this panel focuses on over 2.5 goals trends, the tempo and openness also suggest frequent challenges and fouls, indirectly supporting a higher card count in this fixture.

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