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Grosseto crestGrosseto
v
Pescara crestPescara

Serie C - Girone B | Sun 08 Nov, 11:30

Grosseto v Pescara Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 04:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie C - Girone B clash features Grosseto hosting Pescara in a contest between two top-five sides. Grosseto currently sits third with 23 points, while Pescara is fifth with 19 points, both seeking to climb the standings. Grosseto has shown attacking potency but defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 2.2 goals per game, whereas Pescara boasts a much tighter defense, allowing only 0.4 goals per match. Pescara's recent form and defensive solidity suggest they can exploit Grosseto's defensive lapses, making this a tactically intriguing encounter with promotion implications.

BT4Y best bet

Pescara to Win

  • Pescara has a strong defensive record, conceding just 0.4 goals per game.
  • Grosseto scores more but also concedes heavily, averaging 2.2 goals against.
  • Pescara's recent form yields 11 points versus Grosseto's 8 in the same period.
  • Grosseto's matches often feature over 2.5 goals (80% rate), Pescara's only 20%.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.67 over three matches, indicating moderate scoring.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Pescara to win due to their superior defensive record and recent form advantage despite Grosseto's higher league position. Pescara's ability to limit goals conceded to just 0.4 per game contrasts sharply with Grosseto's 2.2, suggesting Pescara can frustrate and capitalize on counterattacks. The 2.1 offer positive value given the model's 53.6% win probability. The limited data quality is sufficient to support this view, with no warnings on price sensitivity, making this a solid tactical and statistical pick.

Defensive strengthPescara concedes 0.4 goals per game
Strong positive
Recent form pointsPescara 11 vs Grosseto 8
Positive
Goal concession disparityGrosseto concedes 2.2 goals per game
Strong positive
Value edge53.6% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+6 pts)
Positive
Over 2.5 goals rateGrosseto 80%, Pescara 20%
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Pescara's disciplined defense and recent points accumulation make them the tactical choice to edge this match. While Grosseto's attack is potent, their defensive frailties provide Pescara with opportunities to control the game and secure a valuable away win. The data supports backing Pescara for a narrow victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage for Pescara

“Pescara's defensive solidity and recent momentum position them well to exploit Grosseto's defensive weaknesses in this key Serie C fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Pescara to Win evidence

Pescara has a strong defensive record, conceding just 0.4 goals per game.

Grosseto scores more but also concedes heavily, averaging 2.2 goals against.

Pescara's recent form yields 11 points versus Grosseto's 8 in the same period.

Grosseto's matches often feature over 2.5 goals (80% rate), Pescara's only 20%.

What To Watch In The Data

Pescara to Win notes

  • The last three head-to-head matches average 2.67 goals, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Grosseto's high over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Pescara's low rate, suggesting the match tempo may hinge on Grosseto's attacking intent versus Pescara's defensive discipline, shaping goal-scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Grosseto2.4
Avg goals scored
Pescara1.2
Grosseto2.2
Avg goals conceded
Pescara0.4
Grosseto80%
BTTS rate
Pescara40%
Grosseto80%
Over 2.5 goals
Pescara20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 64% · edge +6.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 33%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Grosseto's matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals with an 80% rate, driven by their attacking style and defensive lapses. In contrast, Pescara's games tend to be lower scoring, with only a 20% over 2.5 rate and stronger defensive discipline. This contrast suggests a tactical battle where Pescara aims to contain Grosseto's offense and limit scoring opportunities.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPescara to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 48% · edge +6 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Pescara Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The 53.6% for Pescara to Win sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+6 pts). Pescara have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 8 for Grosseto.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Grosseto

DWDWL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
31 Oct 2026A Vado2-2
25 Oct 2026H Reggiana2-0
16 Oct 2026A Livorno4-4
10 Oct 2026A Vis Pesaro3-2
03 Oct 2026H Sambenedettese1-3

Pescara

DWWDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
31 Oct 2026H Torres0-0
23 Oct 2026A Perugia2-1
18 Oct 2026H Ostia Mare2-0
12 Oct 2026H Guidonia Montecelio 19371-1
03 Oct 2026A Livorno1-0
Market aligned with main pickPescara to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 48% · edge +6 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Pescara Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Recent form favors Pescara, who have collected 11 points compared to Grosseto's 8 in the same timeframe. This reflects Pescara's growing and defensive improvements, which could be decisive against Grosseto's inconsistent recent results despite their higher league standing.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Grosseto Over 2.5
20%Pescara Over 2.5
2.67H2H avg goals
The last three head-to-head matches average 2.67 goals, indicating moderate scoring. Grosseto's high over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Pescara's low rate, suggesting the match tempo may hinge on Grosseto's attacking intent versus Pescara's defensive discipline, shaping goal-scoring opportunities.

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