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Atlas crestAtlas
v
CF Pachuca crestCF Pachuca

Liga MX | Sat 07 Nov, 23:00

Atlas v CF Pachuca Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 07:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Liga MX clash features Atlas, currently fourth in the standings, hosting CF Pachuca, who sit twelfth. Atlas has shown solid form with 10 points from recent matches but a modest goal output, while Pachuca's attack has been more prolific despite fewer points. Both teams have offensive strengths and defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting an open game with scoring opportunities at both ends. The tactical setup and recent scoring trends indicate a lively encounter with a strong chance of multiple goals.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Atlas ranks 4th with 27 points, showing competitive form.
  • CF Pachuca has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, indicating high-scoring games.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.2 per match over last 10 meetings.
  • Atlas averages 13.6 shots per game; Pachuca averages 16, showing attacking intent.
  • Key players like S. Monzón contribute significantly to goal threats.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 66.6% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting both teams' attacking tendencies and defensive lapses. Pachuca's perfect recent Over 2.5 record and Atlas's offensive pressure support this view. The average 3.2 goals in their last 10 encounters further underline the likelihood of multiple goals. The at 1.7 offer positive value against the implied 58.8% chance, making this a statistically and tactically sound selection.

Model Probability66.6% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+7.8 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 RatePachuca 100%, Atlas 40%
Positive
H2H Average Goals3.2 goals per match in last 10
Positive
Shots per GameAtlas 13.6, Pachuca 16
Positive
Price vs Model66.6% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+7.8 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game given Pachuca's strong scoring form and Atlas's home advantage. The attacking prowess of both sides, combined with their defensive vulnerabilities, suggests a match likely to produce three or more goals. This aligns well with the Over 2.5 Goals selection, supported by recent form and head-to-head scoring patterns.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal scoring potential

“With Pachuca's consistent goal-scoring and Atlas's offensive pressure, this fixture is primed for multiple goals. The attacking roles and shot volumes from key players make Over 2.5 Goals a compelling angle.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Atlas ranks 4th with 27 points, showing competitive form.

CF Pachuca has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, indicating high-scoring games.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.2 per match over last 10 meetings.

Atlas averages 13.6 shots per game; Pachuca averages 16, showing attacking intent.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 3.2, indicating a trend towards higher scoring matches.
  • This sample suggests a tempo and tactical openness conducive to Over 2.5 Goals, with both sides historically contributing to the goal tally in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Atlas2
Avg goals scored
CF Pachuca2
Atlas1.8
Avg goals conceded
CF Pachuca1.6
Atlas60%
BTTS rate
CF Pachuca80%
Atlas40%
Over 2.5 goals
CF Pachuca100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 59% · edge +7.8 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 85%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams have shown attacking intent with Pachuca boasting a 100% Over 2.5 rate and Atlas a 60% BTTS rate recently. Their matches often feature goals at both ends, supported by an average of 3.2 goals in their last 10 meetings, indicating a strong route to Over 2.5 through open play and defensive gaps.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 59% · edge +7.8 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Atlas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Atlas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
CF Pachuca Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
CF Pachuca to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The 66.6% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+7.8 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Atlas and 100% for CF Pachuca, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Atlas

WWLWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
31 Oct 2026A Atletico San Luis1-0
25 Oct 2026H Puebla4-3
22 Oct 2026H Club America2-5
17 Oct 2026A Necaxa2-0
11 Oct 2026H Guadalajara Chivas1-1

CF Pachuca

WWLLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
31 Oct 2026H Tigres UANL3-0
26 Oct 2026A Club America2-1
22 Oct 2026H Cruz Azul1-2
19 Oct 2026A Monterrey1-2
12 Oct 2026H Necaxa3-3
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 81% vs implied 74% · edge +7.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Atlas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Atlas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
CF Pachuca Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
CF Pachuca to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Recent form shows Atlas with 10 points and 2 goals scored in their last matches, while Pachuca has 7 points and 2 goals scored. Pachuca's perfect Over 2.5 record contrasts with Atlas's more moderate 40%, indicating Pachuca's games tend to be higher scoring, which could influence the match tempo and goal count.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Atlas Over 2.5
100%CF Pachuca Over 2.5
3.2H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 3.2, indicating a trend towards higher scoring matches. This sample suggests a tempo and tactical openness conducive to Over 2.5 Goals, with both sides historically contributing to the goal tally in this fixture.

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