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PAU crestPAU
v
Nantes crestNantes

Ligue 2 | Sat 07 Nov, 19:00

PAU v Nantes Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 07:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

PAU hosts Nantes in a Ligue 2 clash where PAU's recent form and league standing provide a strong foundation for . PAU ranks 5th with 20 points, showing solid defensive and offensive balance, while Nantes sits 15th with 9 points and inconsistent performances. PAU's ability to score and defend effectively at home contrasts with Nantes' struggles to find rhythm and goals on the road, setting the stage for a competitive match with PAU favored to capitalize on their momentum and home advantage.

BT4Y best bet

PAU to Win

  • PAU holds a strong 5th place in Ligue 2 with 20 points, contrasting Nantes' 15th with 9 points.
  • PAU averages 2.4 goals scored per game and concedes just 1, showing offensive efficiency and defensive solidity.
  • Nantes has a lower scoring rate of 1 goal per game and concedes slightly more at 1.2 goals per game.
  • PAU's recent form includes 15 points from last matches, indicating momentum and .
  • PAU averages more shots (14.2) and shots on target (6.2) than Nantes, reflecting attacking pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 74% chance for PAU to win, supported by their superior recent form, higher league position, and stronger attacking and defensive stats. PAU's ability to create more shots and shots on target per game than Nantes underpins their offensive threat. Nantes' struggles in scoring and lower recent points tally further bolster PAU's advantage. The price at 2.9 offers positive value given the model's and PAU's consistent performance indicators. No data limitations affect this assessment.

Recent FormPAU with 15 points vs Nantes 5 points
Strong positive
League StandingPAU 5th vs Nantes 15th
Strong positive
Goals For/AgainstPAU 2.4/1.0 vs Nantes 1.0/1.2
Strong positive
Shots and Shots on TargetPAU 14.2/6.2 vs Nantes 12.6/3.4
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

PAU's strong home form and higher league standing make them the logical choice to win this fixture. Their superior attacking output and defensive discipline provide a tactical edge over Nantes, who have struggled for consistency and goals. This combination of form and data supports backing PAU to secure victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“PAU's blend of attacking pressure and defensive resilience, combined with Nantes' inconsistency, makes PAU the clear favorite in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

PAU to Win evidence

PAU holds a strong 5th place in Ligue 2 with 20 points, contrasting Nantes' 15th with 9 points.

PAU averages 2.4 goals scored per game and concedes just 1, showing offensive efficiency and defensive solidity.

Nantes has a lower scoring rate of 1 goal per game and concedes slightly more at 1.2 goals per game.

PAU's recent form includes 15 points from last matches, indicating momentum and .

What To Watch In The Data

PAU to Win notes

  • In the last meeting between these teams, the match featured an average of 5 goals, indicating potential for an open and attacking game.
  • PAU's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) in recent matches suggests a trend towards higher scoring games, while Nantes' lower rate (40%) may temper expectations.
  • The trend panel points to a likely dynamic match with goal-scoring opportunities, particularly favoring PAU's offensive style.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

PAU2.4
Avg goals scored
Nantes1
PAU1
Avg goals conceded
Nantes1.2
PAU80%
BTTS rate
Nantes60%
PAU80%
Over 2.5 goals
Nantes40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
PAU's matches have a high over 2.5 goals rate at 80%, while Nantes' games see 40% over 2.5. Both teams have relatively high BTTS rates, with PAU at 80% and Nantes at 60%, indicating a likelihood of goals from both sides. This suggests an open game with scoring opportunities, especially favoring PAU's offensive capabilities.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPAU to WinBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
PAU Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 49.5% for PAU to Win sits against roughly 34.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). PAU have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 5 for Nantes.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

PAU

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
30 Oct 2026A Metz3-1
23 Oct 2026H Grenoble2-1
16 Oct 2026A Guingamp2-1
09 Oct 2026H Laval3-2
18 Sep 2026H Dunkerque2-0

Nantes

DLLDW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
30 Oct 2026H Clermont Foot1-1
24 Oct 2026A Saint Etienne0-1
17 Oct 2026H Dunkerque2-3
10 Oct 2026H Reims0-0
19 Sep 2026A Boulogne2-1
Market aligned with main pickPAU to WinBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 79%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
PAU Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
PAU's recent form is strong, accumulating 15 points with an average of 2.4 goals scored and only 1 conceded per game, reflecting both attacking potency and defensive stability. Nantes' form is weaker, with just 5 points and lower goal output, indicating struggles to maintain consistency. This recent momentum favors PAU's and likelihood to control the match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%PAU Over 2.5
40%Nantes Over 2.5
5H2H avg goals
In the last meeting between these teams, the match featured an average of 5 goals, indicating potential for an open and attacking game. PAU's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) in recent matches suggests a trend towards higher scoring games, while Nantes' lower rate (40%) may temper expectations. The trend panel points to a likely dynamic match with goal-scoring opportunities, particularly favoring PAU's offensive style.

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