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Minnesota United FC crestMinnesota United FC
v
San Jose Earthquakes crestSan Jose Earthquakes

Major League Soccer | Sun 08 Nov, 00:00

Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 04:38 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Minnesota United FC face San Jose Earthquakes in a crucial Major League Soccer clash where Minnesota's recent form and attacking potency set the stage for a competitive encounter. Minnesota has accumulated 11 points recently, showcasing a strong offensive output averaging 2.2 goals per game, while San Jose has struggled to match that intensity, scoring 1.2 goals on average. The match carries significant weight as Minnesota seeks to capitalize on home advantage and maintain momentum, while San Jose aims to leverage their higher league standing and tighten defensive lapses. Tactical discipline and finishing efficiency will be key in this tightly poised contest.

BT4Y best bet

Minnesota United FC to Win

  • Minnesota United FC has earned 11 points recently, outpacing San Jose's 6 points.
  • Minnesota averages 2.2 goals per game compared to San Jose's 1.2, indicating stronger attack.
  • Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, suggesting goal-scoring chances at both ends.
  • Minnesota's average shots on target (5.8) exceed San Jose's (3.6), showing offensive pressure.
  • San Jose ranks 3rd in the league, but Minnesota's recent form and home edge are compelling.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 73.6% chance for Minnesota United FC to win, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking metrics. Minnesota's higher goal-scoring rate and shot volume underpin their offensive control, while San Jose's defensive vulnerabilities and lower scoring output reduce their chances. The 14.8% indicates the current underestimate Minnesota's probability, making this a positive value bet. No data limitations affect , and the model's 73% level supports a standard stake recommendation.

Recent FormMinnesota's 11 points vs San Jose's 6
Strong positive
Goal Scoring2.2 goals/game for Minnesota vs 1.2 for San Jose
Strong positive
Shots on Target5.8 SOT/game Minnesota vs 3.6 San Jose
Positive
League PositionSan Jose 3rd vs Minnesota 12th
Neutral
Value Edge73.6% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+14.8 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Minnesota United FC's recent attacking form and shot control position them well to secure victory despite San Jose's higher league standing. The home side's ability to convert chances and maintain pressure should be decisive, supported by their consistent point accumulation and offensive metrics.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Minnesota's offensive momentum and superior shot creation give them a tactical edge that could unsettle San Jose's defense, making a home win the most plausible outcome in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Minnesota United FC to Win evidence

Minnesota United FC has earned 11 points recently, outpacing San Jose's 6 points.

Minnesota averages 2.2 goals per game compared to San Jose's 1.2, indicating stronger attack.

Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, suggesting goal-scoring chances at both ends.

Minnesota's average shots on target (5.8) exceed San Jose's (3.6), showing offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Minnesota United FC to Win notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.4, indicating a tendency for open, goal-rich games.
  • Minnesota's 80% over 2.5 goals rate recently aligns with this trend, suggesting a fast-paced match with multiple scoring chances and a high likelihood of surpassing 2.5 goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Minnesota United FC2.2
Avg goals scored
San Jose Earthquakes1.2
Minnesota United FC1.2
Avg goals conceded
San Jose Earthquakes1.6
Minnesota United FC80%
BTTS rate
San Jose Earthquakes80%
Minnesota United FC80%
Over 2.5 goals
San Jose Earthquakes60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 69% · edge +6.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 31%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate recently, indicating frequent goals at both ends. Minnesota's higher scoring average (2.2) combined with San Jose's 1.2 goals per game suggests an open game with goal-scoring opportunities. The data supports expectations for goals from both sides, aligning with the attacking tendencies observed.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Major League Soccer hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMinnesota United FC to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +14.8 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Minnesota United FC Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 64%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The 73.6% for Minnesota United FC to Win sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+14.8 pts). Minnesota United FC have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 6 for San Jose Earthquakes.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Minnesota United FC

WWDWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
02 Nov 2026A Los Angeles FC3-1
29 Oct 2026H Sporting Kansas City3-1
25 Oct 2026A Houston Dynamo0-0
17 Oct 2026H St. Louis City3-2
15 Oct 2026A Colorado Rapids2-2

San Jose Earthquakes

WDLDD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 5D 1L
31 Oct 2026H Real Salt Lake2-1
29 Oct 2026H Colorado Rapids2-2
25 Oct 2026A FC Dallas0-3
18 Oct 2026H Nashville SC1-1
15 Oct 2026A Real Salt Lake1-1
Market aligned with main pickMinnesota United FC to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +14.8 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Minnesota United FC Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Minnesota United FC's recent form is robust, securing 11 points with an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, reflecting attacking efficiency and match control. San Jose's 6 points and lower goal output indicate struggles to maintain consistency. Minnesota's momentum and scoring form provide a strong foundation for a home win in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Minnesota United FC Over 2.5
60%San Jose Earthquakes Over 2.5
3.4H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.4, indicating a tendency for open, goal-rich games. Minnesota's 80% over 2.5 goals rate recently aligns with this trend, suggesting a fast-paced match with multiple scoring chances and a high likelihood of surpassing 2.5 goals.

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