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Rizespor crestRizespor
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Erzurumspor FK crestErzurumspor FK

Süper Lig | Sun 08 Nov, 10:30

Rizespor v Erzurumspor FK Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 04:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Erzurumspor FK visits Rizespor in a Süper Lig clash where Erzurumspor FK holds a slight edge in recent form and league standing, sitting 11th with 14 points compared to Rizespor's 13th place and 11 points. Erzurumspor FK's defense has been notably tighter, conceding only 0.8 goals per game versus Rizespor's 2.2, suggesting a more disciplined backline. While Rizespor shows a higher rate of matches with over 2.5 goals, Erzurumspor FK's more balanced attack and solid defensive record set the stage for a competitive encounter with Erzurumspor FK favored to capitalize on their recent momentum.

BT4Y best bet

Erzurumspor FK to Win

  • Erzurumspor FK has a 70% to win, with at 3.9 offering strong value.
  • Erzurumspor FK concedes just 0.8 goals per game, indicating defensive solidity.
  • Rizespor averages more shots and corners but concedes over twice as many goals per game.
  • Erzurumspor FK's Miguel Cardoso is a key attacking threat with 3 goals and 1.13 shots on target per 90 minutes.
  • Recent form favors Erzurumspor FK, who have collected 10 points recently compared to Rizespor's 2.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Erzurumspor FK to win due to their superior defensive record and efficient attack, conceding only 0.8 goals per game while maintaining a decent scoring rate. Despite Rizespor's higher shot and corner averages, their defensive vulnerabilities and poor recent form undermine their chances. Erzurumspor FK's key attacker Miguel Cardoso's goal threat adds to their winning potential. The of 3.9 imply a 25.6% chance, significantly undervaluing Erzurumspor FK's 70% , making this a strong value bet with standard stake guidance.

Defensive strength0.8 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Recent form10 points vs 2 points for Rizespor
Strong positive
Attacking threatMiguel Cardoso 3 goals, 1.13 SOT/90
Positive
Price value40.6% model chance vs 25.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Rizespor defensive weakness2.2 goals conceded per game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Erzurumspor FK's disciplined defense and effective attacking players, notably Miguel Cardoso, provide a tactical edge over Rizespor, whose defensive frailties and poor recent form undermine their chances. This combination of tactical solidity and form data supports backing Erzurumspor FK to secure the win in this Süper Lig fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage

“Erzurumspor FK's defensive resilience combined with Miguel Cardoso's goal threat makes them a compelling pick against a defensively vulnerable Rizespor side struggling for form.”

Key Data Signals

Erzurumspor FK to Win evidence

Erzurumspor FK has a 70% to win, with at 3.9 offering strong value.

Erzurumspor FK concedes just 0.8 goals per game, indicating defensive solidity.

Rizespor averages more shots and corners but concedes over twice as many goals per game.

Erzurumspor FK's Miguel Cardoso is a key attacking threat with 3 goals and 1.13 shots on target per 90 minutes.

What To Watch In The Data

Erzurumspor FK to Win notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.1 per game, indicating moderately open matches.
  • Rizespor's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Erzurumspor FK's more conservative 40%, suggesting a tempo where Erzurumspor FK may control the game pace and limit scoring chances.
  • This trend supports a match with some goals but controlled by Erzurumspor FK's defensive discipline.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Rizespor1.2
Avg goals scored
Erzurumspor FK1.4
Rizespor2.2
Avg goals conceded
Erzurumspor FK0.8
Rizespor60%
BTTS rate
Erzurumspor FK40%
Rizespor80%
Over 2.5 goals
Erzurumspor FK40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +2.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
Rizespor's matches feature a high 80% rate of over 2.5 goals and 60% BTTS, reflecting their open style and defensive vulnerabilities. In contrast, Erzurumspor FK's games have a lower 40% over 2.5 and BTTS rate, indicating a more controlled approach. This suggests the match could see goals but with a defensive edge favoring Erzurumspor FK, aligning with the away win pick.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickErzurumspor FK to WinBetfred guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
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Erzurumspor FK Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 38%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
The 40.6% for Erzurumspor FK to Win sits against roughly 25.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Erzurumspor FK have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 2 for Rizespor.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Rizespor

DLLLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
31 Oct 2026A Kocaelispor0-0
26 Oct 2026H Trabzonspor3-4
16 Oct 2026A Çorum FK1-2
10 Oct 2026H Fenerbahçe0-3
20 Sep 2026A Göztepe2-2

Erzurumspor FK

LWWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
31 Oct 2026H Çorum FK1-3
24 Oct 2026A Gaziantep FK3-1
17 Oct 2026H Eyüpspor2-0
10 Oct 2026A Alanyaspor0-0
20 Sep 2026H Samsunspor1-0
Market aligned with main pickErzurumspor FK to WinBetfred guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Erzurumspor FK Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Erzurumspor FK's recent form is markedly stronger, having secured 10 points compared to Rizespor's 2 in their last matches. This momentum is underpinned by a solid defense conceding only 0.8 goals per game, contrasting with Rizespor's 2.2. Erzurumspor FK's ability to convert chances efficiently while maintaining defensive discipline gives them a clear edge heading into this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Rizespor Over 2.5
40%Erzurumspor FK Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.1 per game, indicating moderately open matches. Rizespor's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Erzurumspor FK's more conservative 40%, suggesting a tempo where Erzurumspor FK may control the game pace and limit scoring chances. This trend supports a match with some goals but controlled by Erzurumspor FK's defensive discipline.

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