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Ekstraklasa | Sat 07 Nov, 19:15

Widzew Łódź v Pogon Szczecin Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 07:38 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Pogon Szczecin arrives in strong form, sitting 4th in the Ekstraklasa with 24 points, double the tally of 14th-placed Widzew Łódź. Pogon's attack has been productive, averaging 2 goals per game recently, while Widzew has struggled to convert chances, scoring 1.2 goals per match. Pogon’s defensive solidity and higher league standing suggest they will control the tempo and look to exploit Widzew’s defensive vulnerabilities. This fixture presents a clear opportunity for Pogon to extend their winning run against a side under pressure near the relegation zone.

BT4Y best bet

Pogon Szczecin to Win

  • Pogon Szczecin holds a strong 4th place with 24 points, compared to Widzew Łódź’s 14th with 11 points.
  • Pogon averages 2 goals per game recently, showing sharp attacking form.
  • Widzew concedes 1.6 goals per game, indicating defensive frailties.
  • Pogon’s recent form includes 12 points gained, highlighting momentum advantage.
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating an open game likely.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 70% chance for Pogon Szczecin to win, reflecting their superior recent form, league position, and attacking efficiency. Pogon’s ability to create quality chances, led by key players like Kamil Grosicki and Jacek Nsame, underpins this . Widzew’s defensive record and lower point accumulation further tilt the balance. The at 3.0 offer positive value given the implied 33.3% chance, making this a well-supported selection. No data limitations affect in this prediction.

Recent formPogon’s 12 points vs Widzew’s 3 points in last matches
Strong positive
League standingPogon 4th vs Widzew 14th
Strong positive
Goal scoringPogon 2.0 goals/game vs Widzew 1.2
Positive
Defensive recordWidzew concedes 1.6 goals/game
Positive
Value edge48.3% model chance vs 33.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Pogon Szczecin’s tactical discipline and attacking firepower, led by Grosicki and Nsame, position them well to secure victory. Their recent form and league standing demonstrate clear superiority over Widzew Łódź, who have struggled defensively and lack momentum. This combination of tactical strength and data-backed form makes Pogon the favored side to win this encounter.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Pogon Szczecin’s blend of experienced attackers and solid midfield control gives them a decisive edge in this matchup. Their ability to convert chances efficiently should prove too much for Widzew Łódź’s vulnerable defense.”

Key Data Signals

Pogon Szczecin to Win evidence

Pogon Szczecin holds a strong 4th place with 24 points, compared to Widzew Łódź’s 14th with 11 points.

Pogon averages 2 goals per game recently, showing sharp attacking form.

Widzew concedes 1.6 goals per game, indicating defensive frailties.

Pogon’s recent form includes 12 points gained, highlighting momentum advantage.

What To Watch In The Data

Pogon Szczecin to Win notes

  • In the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.89, supporting an expectation of a lively match with multiple goals.
  • Both teams’ recent over 2.5 goals rate of 60% further confirms the trend towards open, attacking football in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Widzew Łódź1.2
Avg goals scored
Pogon Szczecin2
Widzew Łódź1.6
Avg goals conceded
Pogon Szczecin1.4
Widzew Łódź80%
BTTS rate
Pogon Szczecin60%
Widzew Łódź60%
Over 2.5 goals
Pogon Szczecin60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, with Widzew showing an 80% BTTS rate and Pogon 60%. This indicates a likelihood of open play and goal-scoring opportunities from both sides, supporting expectations of an entertaining, goal-rich fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPogon Szczecin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Pogon Szczecin Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The 48.3% for Pogon Szczecin to Win sits against roughly 33.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Pogon Szczecin have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 3 for Widzew Łódź.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Widzew Łódź

LDDLD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 6D 4L
31 Oct 2026A GKS Katowice2-3
23 Oct 2026H Gornik Zabrze1-1
16 Oct 2026H Wisla Krakow0-0
11 Oct 2026A Piast Gliwice1-2
18 Sep 2026H Wieczysta Kraków2-2

Pogon Szczecin

LWWWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
02 Nov 2026A Raków Częstochowa1-3
24 Oct 2026H Radomiak Radom4-3
17 Oct 2026A GKS Katowice1-0
11 Oct 2026H Korona Kielce2-0
20 Sep 2026A Piast Gliwice2-1
Market aligned with main pickPogon Szczecin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 77%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Pogon Szczecin Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Pogon Szczecin’s recent form is strong, securing 12 points in their last matches, while Widzew has managed only 3 points. Pogon’s consistent goal scoring and defensive resilience underpin their momentum advantage, making them the form side heading into this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Widzew Łódź Over 2.5
60%Pogon Szczecin Over 2.5
2.89H2H avg goals
In the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.89, supporting an expectation of a lively match with multiple goals. Both teams’ recent over 2.5 goals rate of 60% further confirms the trend towards open, attacking football in this fixture.

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