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DC United crestDC United
v
New York City FC crestNew York City FC

Major League Soccer | Sat 07 Nov, 21:00

DC United v New York City FC Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 07:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Major League Soccer clash features DC United hosting New York City FC in a crucial late-season fixture. DC United struggles with defensive frailties, conceding an average of 2.6 goals per game recently, while New York City FC has shown more attacking consistency, scoring 1.2 goals per game and securing six points in their last matches. The visitors' tactical approach emphasizes controlled possession and efficient finishing, contrasting with DC United's vulnerability at the back. With playoff implications and form favoring New York City FC, this match promises a tactical battle with the away side looking to capitalize on defensive lapses.

BT4Y best bet

New York City FC to Win

  • New York City FC holds a strong 70% to win with positive value at 2.25 .
  • DC United concedes 2.6 goals per game recently, indicating defensive weaknesses.
  • New York City FC averages 1.2 goals per game and has better recent form with 6 points.
  • DC United's over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, suggesting open games but defensive risk.
  • Key attackers like N. Fernández Mercau and A. Martínez provide goal and shot threats for New York City FC.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors New York City FC to win due to their superior recent form, better defensive record, and attacking efficiency. DC United's defensive struggles, conceding 2.6 goals per game, contrast with New York City FC's more balanced approach. The positive of 25.6% at 2.25 reflects a strong chance for the away side to exploit defensive gaps and secure victory. Player-level data highlights key attackers contributing to goal threat and shot volume, reinforcing the model's in New York City FC's winning potential.

Recent FormNew York City FC earned 6 points recently vs DC United's 0
Strong positive
Defensive RecordDC United concedes 2.6 goals per game, New York City FC 1.4
Strong positive
Attacking EfficiencyNew York City FC averages 1.2 goals per game
Positive
Market Value Edge59.4% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Player ThreatN. Martínez show high shot and goal involvement
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

New York City FC's tactical discipline and recent form make them the logical choice to win this match. Their ability to create quality chances and capitalize on DC United's defensive weaknesses provides a solid foundation for victory. The data supports their superiority in both attack and defense, making them the favored side in this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“New York City FC's balanced attack and improved defensive shape give them a clear edge over DC United, whose defensive vulnerabilities are likely to be exploited in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

New York City FC to Win evidence

New York City FC holds a strong 70% to win with positive value at 2.25 .

DC United concedes 2.6 goals per game recently, indicating defensive weaknesses.

New York City FC averages 1.2 goals per game and has better recent form with 6 points.

DC United's over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, suggesting open games but defensive risk.

What To Watch In The Data

New York City FC to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.7, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend.
  • DC United's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) suggests matches often feature multiple goals, while New York City FC's more moderate rate (40%) points to controlled attacking play.
  • This trend suggests a dynamic game with goal-scoring opportunities for both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

DC United0.6
Avg goals scored
New York City FC1.2
DC United2.6
Avg goals conceded
New York City FC1.4
DC United60%
BTTS rate
New York City FC80%
DC United80%
Over 2.5 goals
New York City FC40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 65% · edge +10.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 80%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have shown tendencies toward open games, with DC United's 80% over 2.5 goals rate indicating frequent high-scoring matches. New York City FC's 40% over 2.5 rate and 80% BTTS rate suggest they contribute consistently to goal action. This match is likely to feature goals from both sides, driven by DC United's defensive lapses and New York City FC's attacking threats.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Major League Soccer fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNew York City FC to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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New York City FC Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 59.4% for New York City FC to Win sits against roughly 44.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). New York City FC have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 0 for DC United.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

DC United

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 7L
31 Oct 2026A Columbus Crew0-3
28 Oct 2026A Toronto FC1-2
25 Oct 2026H FC Cincinnati0-2
22 Oct 2026A FC Cincinnati1-2
18 Oct 2026A Orlando City SC1-4

New York City FC

DWDDL
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
31 Oct 2026H CF Montreal1-1
28 Oct 2026H Atlanta United FC2-1
25 Oct 2026A Orlando City SC2-2
18 Oct 2026H Los Angeles FC1-1
15 Oct 2026A Inter Miami0-2
Market aligned with main pickNew York City FC to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
New York City FC Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
New York City FC's recent form shows six points gained with improved defensive organization, conceding only 1.4 goals per game. DC United has struggled, failing to earn points and conceding 2.6 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. This form disparity favors New York City FC's chances to control the match and secure a win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%DC United Over 2.5
40%New York City FC Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.7, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend. DC United's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) suggests matches often feature multiple goals, while New York City FC's more moderate rate (40%) points to controlled attacking play. This trend suggests a dynamic game with goal-scoring opportunities for both sides.

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