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Heerenveen crestHeerenveen
v
Feyenoord crestFeyenoord

Eredivisie | Sun 08 Nov, 11:15

Heerenveen v Feyenoord Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 04:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Heerenveen hosts Feyenoord in an Eredivisie clash where both teams show solid recent form, with Heerenveen earning 12 points and Feyenoord 11 from their last five matches. Heerenveen's strong defensive record, conceding just 0.8 goals per game, contrasts with Feyenoord's potent attack averaging 2.6 goals scored per match. The fixture promises tactical balance, with Heerenveen aiming to leverage home stability against Feyenoord's attacking prowess. The match carries significance for Heerenveen to maintain momentum and for Feyenoord to assert their top-table status, setting up a competitive encounter with tactical nuances and scoring potential.

BT4Y best bet

Heerenveen or Draw

  • Heerenveen concedes only 0.8 goals per game, showing defensive solidity.
  • Feyenoord leads the league but has a lower over 2.5 goals rate (40%) compared to Heerenveen (60%).
  • Heerenveen averages 14.6 shots per game with 5.6 on target, indicating attacking threat.
  • Feyenoord's higher shots on target (8.4) and corners (6.4) reflect offensive pressure.
  • Heerenveen or Draw has a strong of 75.6%, with positive value at 2.05 .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Heerenveen or Draw with a 75.6% chance, reflecting Heerenveen's robust defense and consistent form. Despite Feyenoord's attacking strength, Heerenveen's ability to limit goals and secure points at home provides a strong foundation. The offer positive value, as the implied chance is significantly lower than the model's estimate. This pick balances defensive resilience and home advantage against Feyenoord's offensive threat, making it a strategically sound choice. No data limitations affect in this assessment.

Heerenveen Defensive Strength0.8 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Recent FormHeerenveen 12 points, Feyenoord 11 points last 5 matches
Positive
Model Value Edge38.8% model chance vs 23.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Feyenoord Offensive PressureHigher shots and corners but lower over 2.5 rate
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Heerenveen's solid defensive record and recent form underpin in avoiding defeat against league leaders Feyenoord. The home side's ability to limit goals and accumulate points suggests a tactical setup focused on resilience. Feyenoord's offensive firepower is notable, but Heerenveen's consistency and home advantage make the double chance a prudent selection for this tightly contested Eredivisie fixture.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and tactical balance

“Heerenveen's defensive discipline and home form create a strong foundation to at least avoid defeat against a potent Feyenoord attack, making the double chance a compelling tactical choice.”

Key Data Signals

Heerenveen or Draw evidence

Heerenveen concedes only 0.8 goals per game, showing defensive solidity.

Feyenoord leads the league but has a lower over 2.5 goals rate (40%) compared to Heerenveen (60%).

Heerenveen averages 14.6 shots per game with 5.6 on target, indicating attacking threat.

Feyenoord's higher shots on target (8.4) and corners (6.4) reflect offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Heerenveen or Draw notes

  • The last ten meetings average 3.1 goals per game, indicating a history of open matches.
  • However, Heerenveen's higher recent over 2.5 goals rate (60%) compared to Feyenoord's 40% suggests a trend toward more goals when Heerenveen plays at home.
  • This trend points to a match with scoring chances but balanced by Heerenveen's defensive discipline, influencing the cautious double chance selection.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Heerenveen2.4
Avg goals scored
Feyenoord2.6
Heerenveen0.8
Avg goals conceded
Feyenoord1
Heerenveen20%
BTTS rate
Feyenoord60%
Heerenveen60%
Over 2.5 goals
Feyenoord40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 35% · edge +8.6 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 79%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Heerenveen's matches have a 60% over 2.5 goals rate but only 20% BTTS, indicating games often feature limited opposition scoring. Feyenoord shows a 40% over 2.5 rate with 60% BTTS, suggesting more open games. The contrasting profiles imply a match where Heerenveen may restrict Feyenoord's scoring chances, supporting a cautious goals and BTTS outlook.

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Useful next reads

more Eredivisie analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionHeerenveen Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Heerenveen to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
DrawBetUK guide price · model 29%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Feyenoord Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Feyenoord to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The 38.8% for Heerenveen or Draw sits against roughly 23.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts).
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Heerenveen

WWWLW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
31 Oct 2026H NEC Nijmegen1-0
24 Oct 2026A ADO Den Haag3-2
16 Oct 2026H Excelsior4-0
09 Oct 2026A PSV Eindhoven0-2
19 Sep 2026A Sparta Rotterdam4-0

Feyenoord

DDWWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 4D 0L
31 Oct 2026H Fortuna Sittard1-1
25 Oct 2026A PSV Eindhoven1-1
17 Oct 2026A Telstar4-3
10 Oct 2026H AZ Alkmaar2-0
20 Sep 2026H Utrecht5-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Heerenveen Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Heerenveen to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
DrawBetUK guide price · model 29%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Feyenoord Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Feyenoord to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Heerenveen's recent form is strong, securing 12 points in the last five matches with a tight defense conceding 0.8 goals per game. Feyenoord also shows good form with 11 points but concedes slightly more. This recent momentum favors Heerenveen's ability to avoid defeat at home, reinforcing the double chance pick as a reflection of current team performances.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Heerenveen Over 2.5
40%Feyenoord Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
The last ten meetings average 3.1 goals per game, indicating a history of open matches. However, Heerenveen's higher recent over 2.5 goals rate (60%) compared to Feyenoord's 40% suggests a trend toward more goals when Heerenveen plays at home. This trend points to a match with scoring chances but balanced by Heerenveen's defensive discipline, influencing the cautious double chance selection.

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