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Paris Saint Germain crestParis Saint Germain
v
Estac Troyes crestEstac Troyes

Ligue 1 | Sat 07 Nov, 20:05

Paris Saint Germain v Estac Troyes Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 18:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Paris Saint Germain host Estac Troyes in a Ligue 1 clash where the home side leads the table with 20 points, while Troyes sit 16th with 8 points. PSG's attacking prowess contrasts with Troyes' defensive vulnerabilities, setting up a contest where both teams have incentives to find the net. PSG's recent form shows strong offensive output, while Troyes have struggled to score but remain capable of opportunistic goals. The tactical setup suggests an open game with chances for both sides, despite the difference in league standing and quality.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Paris Saint Germain average 20.6 shots and 9 shots on target per game, indicating strong attacking pressure.
  • Estac Troyes have a lower scoring rate but still manage 13.6 shots and 3.8 shots on target per game, showing attacking intent.
  • Both teams have contrasting BTTS rates: PSG at 80% and Troyes at 20%, suggesting a potential for both to score given PSG's control and Troyes' sporadic threat.
  • The head-to-head average goals stand at 4.1 over 10 matches, supporting a high-scoring encounter with goals from both sides.
  • PSG's defensive concession rate is 0.8 goals per game, while Troyes concede 1.4, indicating vulnerabilities that could be exploited offensively.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Both Teams to Score at a 63.3% probability, well above the implied market chance of 48.8%, indicating strong value. PSG's high shot volume and goal-scoring consistency combine with Troyes' ability to create chances despite their lower scoring rate. The head-to-head average of 4.1 goals per match further supports an open game with goals at both ends. This pick benefits from PSG's offensive firepower and Troyes' occasional goal threat, making BTTS a compelling selection with solid .

Model Probability63.3% model chance vs 48.8% implied (+14.5 pts)
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance63.3% model chance vs 48.8% implied (+14.5 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge63.3% model chance vs 48.8% implied (+14.5 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form BTTS RatePSG 80%, Troyes 20%
Positive
Head-to-Head Goals Average4.1 goals per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both Teams to Score is a tactically sound pick given PSG's offensive control and Troyes' sporadic goal threat. PSG's high shot and goal numbers suggest they will score, while Troyes' occasional attacking bursts and set-piece opportunities make a goal from them plausible. The data supports an open game with goals at both ends, making BTTS a logical choice for this fixture.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS tactical and data insight

“Paris Saint Germain's relentless attacking style combined with Estac Troyes' willingness to push forward creates a scenario ripe for goals from both sides. Despite Troyes' struggles, their capacity to test PSG's defense cannot be overlooked.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Paris Saint Germain average 20.6 shots and 9 shots on target per game, indicating strong attacking pressure.

Estac Troyes have a lower scoring rate but still manage 13.6 shots and 3.8 shots on target per game, showing attacking intent.

Both teams have contrasting BTTS rates: PSG at 80% and Troyes at 20%, suggesting a potential for both to score given PSG's control and Troyes' sporadic threat.

The head-to-head average goals stand at 4.1 over 10 matches, supporting a high-scoring encounter with goals from both sides.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 4.1, indicating a trend towards high-scoring games.
  • This trend reflects open play and attacking tempo from both sides, suggesting that Over 2.5 goals is a realistic outcome, which complements the BTTS market by highlighting goal opportunities for both teams.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Paris Saint Germain3
Avg goals scored
Estac Troyes0.6
Paris Saint Germain0.8
Avg goals conceded
Estac Troyes1.4
Paris Saint Germain80%
BTTS rate
Estac Troyes20%
Paris Saint Germain80%
Over 2.5 goals
Estac Troyes20%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 49% · edge +14.5 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Paris Saint Germain's high scoring rate and Troyes' lower but present goal threat create a mixed goals environment. PSG's 80% BTTS rate contrasts with Troyes' 20%, but the head-to-head average of 4.1 goals per game indicates open matches with goals from both sides, supporting the BTTS angle despite Troyes' modest scoring.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 49% · edge +14.5 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Estac Troyes to WinBetfred guide price · model 20%
21
Check odds @ 21
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
10
Check odds @ 10
Paris Saint Germain to WinBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
The 63.3% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 48.8% implied by the current price (+14.5 pts). Paris Saint Germain show a 80% BTTS rate and Estac Troyes show a 20% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Paris Saint Germain

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 1L
30 Oct 2026A Le Havre5-1
26 Oct 2026H Lyon2-0
17 Oct 2026A Strasbourg3-1
10 Oct 2026H Le Mans3-1
20 Sep 2026A Marseille2-1

Estac Troyes

WDLLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 5L
31 Oct 2026H Le Mans2-0
25 Oct 2026A Toulouse0-0
17 Oct 2026H Lens1-3
11 Oct 2026H Marseille0-2
19 Sep 2026A Angers0-2
Best odds for this sectionEstac Troyes to WinBetfred guide price · Model 20% vs implied 5% · edge +15 pts
21
Check odds @ 21
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.01
Check odds @ 1.01
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
10
Check odds @ 10
Paris Saint Germain to WinBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Recent form shows PSG with 15 points and 3 goals scored per game, maintaining an 80% BTTS rate, while Troyes have 4 points and 0.6 goals per game with a 20% BTTS rate. PSG's consistent scoring and Troyes' occasional goals suggest a match where both teams can find the net, aligning with the BTTS prediction.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Paris Saint Germain Over 2.5
20%Estac Troyes Over 2.5
4.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 4.1, indicating a trend towards high-scoring games. This trend reflects open play and attacking tempo from both sides, suggesting that Over 2.5 goals is a realistic outcome, which complements the BTTS market by highlighting goal opportunities for both teams.

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