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New York Red Bulls crestNew York Red Bulls
v
Atlanta United FC crestAtlanta United FC

Major League Soccer | Sat 07 Nov, 21:00

New York Red Bulls v Atlanta United FC Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 07:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atlanta United FC return to Mercedes-Benz Stadium aiming to end an eight-match winless streak, buoyed by their home form where two of their three victories this season have come. They average 13.1 attempts and 4.2 shots on target per game recently, facing a New York Red Bulls defense that has conceded 39 goals this season, the highest among Eastern Conference playoff teams. New York, despite sitting eighth, have defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 2.0 goals per match over their last 10 games. Atlanta's challenge lies in maintaining leads, having dropped nine points from winning positions this season, but their attacking volume against a porous defense sets the stage for a home win with goals at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Atlanta United FC to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Atlanta United averages 13.1 attempts and 4.2 shots on target per game over last 10 matches.
  • New York Red Bulls have conceded 39 goals this season, the highest among playoff teams in the Eastern Conference.
  • New York allows 14.4 attempts and 5.5 shots on target per game in recent matches.
  • Atlanta United has lost three matches after scoring first, dropping nine points from winning positions.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model sees strong value in Atlanta United FC to Win & Both Teams to Score at 3.1 , reflecting a 42.7% chance versus a 32.3% implied probability. Atlanta's sustained attacking pressure, averaging 13.1 shots per game, aligns with New York's defensive frailties, conceding 2.0 goals per match recently. Both teams have shown goal-scoring ability, with New York averaging 1.7 goals per game, supporting the BTTS angle. The model is solid at 60%, and no price warnings apply, making this a compelling pick based on attacking and defensive profiles.

Model Chance43.6% model chance vs 32.3% implied (+11.3 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Probability43.6% model chance vs 32.3% implied (+11.3 pts)
Positive
Value Edge43.6% model chance vs 32.3% implied (+11.3 pts)
Strong positive
Confidence Level60%
Positive
Price Warning43.6% model chance vs 32.3% implied (+11.3 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Atlanta United's home advantage and attacking volume create a tactical edge against New York's vulnerable defense, which concedes frequently despite playoff positioning. The data shows both teams have scoring potential, making a home win with goals at both ends a logical outcome. Atlanta's challenge is maintaining leads, but their offensive pressure and New York's defensive lapses support this selection.

Main risk

Their recent scoring suggests they can trouble a vulnerable visiting defence, but getting ahead has hardly been a solution so far.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and goal-scoring dynamics

“Atlanta United's sustained attacking threat combined with New York's porous defense makes a home win with both teams scoring a well-founded prediction. The match hinges on Atlanta's ability to convert chances and New York's resilience to respond offensively.”

Key Data Signals

Atlanta United FC to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Atlanta United averages 13.1 attempts and 4.2 shots on target per game over last 10 matches.

New York Red Bulls have conceded 39 goals this season, the highest among playoff teams in the Eastern Conference.

New York allows 14.4 attempts and 5.5 shots on target per game in recent matches.

Atlanta United has lost three matches after scoring first, dropping nine points from winning positions.

What To Watch In The Data

Atlanta United FC to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 2.8, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend.
  • Both teams' recent matches show high over 2.5 goals rates—100% for Atlanta and 60% for New York—suggesting an open game with multiple scoring opportunities and a fast tempo.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

New York Red Bulls1.4
Avg goals scored
Atlanta United FC2
New York Red Bulls2
Avg goals conceded
Atlanta United FC1.8
New York Red Bulls60%
BTTS rate
Atlanta United FC80%
New York Red Bulls60%
Over 2.5 goals
Atlanta United FC100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 74% · edge +2.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 87%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 69%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
3
Check odds @ 3
Both teams have shown consistent scoring recently, with Atlanta averaging 1.3 goals and New York 1.7 per match over their last 10 games. New York's defense concedes 2.0 goals per game, making a BTTS outcome plausible. Atlanta's offensive volume and New York's ability to score support a game with goals at both ends.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAtlanta United FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Atlanta United FC to WinBetfred guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 69%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 43.6% for Atlanta United FC to Win & Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 32.3% implied by the current price (+11.3 pts). Atlanta United FC need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show New York Red Bulls on 3 and Atlanta United FC on 6. New York’s average 1.7 goals scored per match and Atlanta’s difficulty keeping clean sheets underpin the likelihood of this exact scoreline.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

New York Red Bulls

LLWLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 6L
01 Nov 2026A Nashville SC2-3
28 Oct 2026A New England Revolution2-3
24 Oct 2026H Inter Miami2-0
18 Oct 2026H Toronto FC0-2
15 Oct 2026A DC United1-2

Atlanta United FC

WLLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
01 Nov 2026H Toronto FC3-1
28 Oct 2026A New York City FC1-2
25 Oct 2026H Chicago Fire2-3
18 Oct 2026H Inter Miami1-3
15 Oct 2026A CF Montreal3-0
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Atlanta United FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Atlanta United FC to WinBetfred guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Atlanta United has earned 6 points in recent matches, scoring 2 goals per game but conceding 1.8, showing offensive strength but defensive vulnerability. New York has collected 3 points, scoring 1.4 goals and conceding 2, reflecting defensive struggles despite some attacking output. This form supports a competitive match with goals from both sides.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%New York Red Bulls Over 2.5
100%Atlanta United FC Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 2.8, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend. Both teams' recent matches show high over 2.5 goals rates—100% for Atlanta and 60% for New York—suggesting an open game with multiple scoring opportunities and a fast tempo.

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