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Antwerp crestAntwerp
v
Lommel United crestLommel United

Jupiler Pro League | Sat 07 Nov, 19:45

Antwerp v Lommel United Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 18:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lommel United visit Antwerp in a Jupiler Pro League clash where recent form and tactical dynamics suggest an intriguing contest. Lommel United have been more consistent recently, accumulating 15 points and sitting 7th in the table, while Antwerp are 12th with 10 points. Lommel's slightly better defensive record and ability to create quality chances on the road contrast with Antwerp's struggles to keep clean sheets. This match offers Lommel United a chance to capitalize on their momentum and tactical discipline against a home side that has conceded heavily in recent fixtures.

BT4Y best bet

Lommel United to Win

  • Lommel United hold a 67.5% to win, with strong value at 3.7 .
  • Lommel United have conceded fewer goals per game (1.6) compared to Antwerp (2.4).
  • Antwerp's recent form shows only 3 points from last matches, while Lommel United have 8 points.
  • Lommel United average more shots on target (4.4) than Antwerp (3.4), indicating better attacking threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Lommel United to win based on their superior recent form, better defensive record, and higher attacking efficiency. Lommel United's 67.5% win probability significantly exceeds the implied 27% chance from the , presenting a strong value opportunity. Their ability to limit goals conceded and create more shots on target underpins this . Antwerp's defensive vulnerabilities and lower recent points tally further support Lommel United's chances. No price warnings apply, and the data quality is solid for both teams.

Model Win Probability67.5%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance42% model chance vs 27% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsLommel 8 vs Antwerp 3
Positive
Goals Against Per GameLommel 1.6 vs Antwerp 2.4
Positive
Shots on Target Per GameLommel 4.4 vs Antwerp 3.4
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Lommel United's recent form and defensive solidity make them a compelling pick to win at Antwerp. Their ability to generate more shots on target and maintain a tighter defense contrasts with Antwerp's struggles at the back, suggesting Lommel United can secure a valuable away victory in this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and tactical advantage

“Lommel United's efficiency in front of goal combined with their defensive resilience provides a tactical edge against Antwerp's leaky defense. Their recent momentum and shot volume underline a strong chance to claim all three points.”

Key Data Signals

Lommel United to Win evidence

Lommel United hold a 67.5% to win, with strong value at 3.7 .

Lommel United have conceded fewer goals per game (1.6) compared to Antwerp (2.4).

Antwerp's recent form shows only 3 points from last matches, while Lommel United have 8 points.

Lommel United average more shots on target (4.4) than Antwerp (3.4), indicating better attacking threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Lommel United to Win notes

  • In the last four head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.5 per game, suggesting a moderately open game.
  • Lommel United's recent matches show a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, while Antwerp's is higher at 80%, indicating potential for an open contest but with Lommel likely to manage the tempo and defensive transitions effectively.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Antwerp1.2
Avg goals scored
Lommel United1.4
Antwerp2.4
Avg goals conceded
Lommel United1.6
Antwerp60%
BTTS rate
Lommel United40%
Antwerp80%
Over 2.5 goals
Lommel United60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 80% vs implied 86% · edge -5.5 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both teams have shown contrasting goal trends; Antwerp averages 1.2 goals scored but concedes 2.4 per game, while Lommel United scores 1.4 and concedes 1.6. Antwerp's 60% BTTS rate versus Lommel's 40% suggests a tighter defensive approach from Lommel, potentially limiting Antwerp's scoring chances and favoring a lower-scoring game with Lommel's win.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLommel United to WinBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
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Lommel United Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 42% for Lommel United to Win sits against roughly 27% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Lommel United have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 3 for Antwerp.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Antwerp

LWLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
01 Nov 2026A Cercle Brugge1-2
24 Oct 2026H Charleroi3-0
11 Oct 2026A KVC Westerlo1-5
20 Sep 2026H Union St. Gilloise0-2
13 Sep 2026A Club Brugge KV1-3

Lommel United

WDWDL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
01 Nov 2026H Gent2-0
24 Oct 2026A OH Leuven2-2
09 Oct 2026A SK Beveren3-1
19 Sep 2026H KV Mechelen0-0
12 Sep 2026A Union St. Gilloise0-5
Market aligned with main pickLommel United to WinBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Lommel United Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Lommel United's recent form is superior, earning 8 points compared to Antwerp's 3 in recent matches. Lommel's more consistent performances and better defensive record underpin their , while Antwerp's struggles to keep clean sheets and limited goal scoring reduce their chances of securing points in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Antwerp Over 2.5
60%Lommel United Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last four head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.5 per game, suggesting a moderately open game. Lommel United's recent matches show a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, while Antwerp's is higher at 80%, indicating potential for an open contest but with Lommel likely to manage the tempo and defensive transitions effectively.

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