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Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace
v
Shakhtar Donetsk crestShakhtar Donetsk

UEFA Europa Conference League | Thu 07 May, 20:00

Crystal Palace v Shakhtar Donetsk Stats

Data last updated: Wed 24 Jun 2026, 09:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Crystal Palace face Shakhtar Donetsk in UEFA Europa Conference League on Thu 07 May, 20:00. Ismaila Sarr has scored eight Conference League goals this season and remains Palace's most clinical transition threat tonight.

BT4Y best bet

Crystal Palace to Win & Under 2

  • At 13/5, Crystal Palace Win implies roughly 28%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 58%.
  • Crystal Palace have been incredibly disciplined at home, conceding only once in their last seven Selhurst Park fixtures.
  • Crystal Palace have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Shakhtar Donetsk.
  • Crystal Palace have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Crystal Palace Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 58% for Crystal Palace Win sits against roughly 28% implied by the current price. Crystal Palace have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Shakhtar Donetsk. Crystal Palace have been incredibly disciplined at home, conceding only once in their last seven Selhurst Park fixtures.

Model chance vs price58% model chance against roughly 28% implied
Strong positive
Crystal Palace have the stronger recent points return, taking 10.Visible data support
Positive
Crystal Palace have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Crystal Palace have been incredibly disciplined at home, conceding.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Crystal Palace Win is the preferred angle because crystal Palace have been incredibly disciplined at home, conceding only once in their last seven Selhurst Park fixtures. Crystal Palace have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Shakhtar Donetsk. Managers hate hearing that excuse, but footballers are human.

Main risk

Managers hate hearing that excuse, but footballers are human.

Key Data Signals

Crystal Palace Win evidence

Crystal Palace have been incredibly disciplined at home, conceding only once in their last seven Selhurst Park fixtures.

Crystal Palace have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Shakhtar Donetsk.

Crystal Palace have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Crystal Palace Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Crystal Palace Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Crystal Palace4.2
    Avg corners for
    Shakhtar Donetsk5
    Crystal Palace9
    Avg total corners
    Shakhtar Donetsk8.2
    Crystal Palace2
    Avg yellow cards
    Shakhtar Donetsk2.8
    Crystal Palace15.6
    Avg shots
    Shakhtar Donetsk13.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 60% · edge +9.3 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
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    Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 62%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 54%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    UEFA Europa Conference League hubfull betting preview for Crystal Palace v Shakhtar Donetskcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Crystal Palace1.8
    Avg goals scored
    Shakhtar Donetsk2
    Crystal Palace0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Shakhtar Donetsk1.6
    Crystal Palace60%
    BTTS rate
    Shakhtar Donetsk80%
    Crystal Palace80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Shakhtar Donetsk100%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 56% · edge +20.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickCrystal Palace to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 64% · edge -5.6 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 69%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Crystal Palace Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Crystal Palace to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Crystal Palace

    WLWWD
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 3D 2L
    30 Apr 2026A Shakhtar Donetsk3-1
    16 Apr 2026A Fiorentina1-2
    09 Apr 2026H Fiorentina3-0
    19 Mar 2026A AEK Larnaca2-1
    12 Mar 2026H AEK Larnaca0-0

    Shakhtar Donetsk

    LDWLW
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 2D 3L
    30 Apr 2026H Crystal Palace1-3
    16 Apr 2026A AZ Alkmaar2-2
    09 Apr 2026H AZ Alkmaar3-0
    19 Mar 2026H Lech Poznan1-2
    12 Mar 2026A Lech Poznan3-1
    Market aligned with main pickCrystal Palace to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 64% · edge -5.6 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 83%
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
    Crystal Palace Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Crystal Palace wins
    0Draws
    0Shakhtar Donetsk wins
    30 Apr 2026Shakhtar Donetsk v Crystal Palace1-3
    Market aligned with main pickCrystal Palace to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 64% · edge -5.6 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Crystal Palace to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    UEFA Europa Conference League

    Crystal Palace17
    Played
    Shakhtar Donetsk14
    Crystal Palace1.6
    Avg goals for
    Shakhtar Donetsk1.7
    Crystal Palace0.7
    Avg goals against
    Shakhtar Donetsk1.2
    Crystal Palace8
    Clean sheets
    Shakhtar Donetsk4
    Market aligned with main pickCrystal Palace to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 64% · edge -5.6 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Crystal Palace Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Season data supports Crystal Palace to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    6Shakhtar Donetsk1364115
    10Crystal Palace1063125
    UEFA Europa Conference League standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Crystal Palace Over 2.5
    100%Shakhtar Donetsk Over 2.5
    4H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Crystal Palace sit at 80% and Shakhtar Donetsk sit at 100% with the H2H average at 4 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Crystal Palace v Shakhtar Donetsk prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    UEFA Europa Conference League hubUEFA Europa Conference League hubfull betting preview for Crystal Palace v Shakhtar Donetskcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hub

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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