Football Stats Hub

AZ Alkmaar crestAZ Alkmaar
v
Groningen crestGroningen

Eredivisie | Sun 08 Nov, 15:45

AZ Alkmaar v Groningen Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 04:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Eredivisie clash sees Groningen travel to face AZ Alkmaar, with Groningen showing a surprising attacking edge recently. Groningen have scored 2.8 goals per game in their last outings, contrasting with AZ Alkmaar's modest 0.6 goals scored and a recent run of just four points. Groningen's offensive momentum and ability to create chances could unsettle AZ Alkmaar, who have conceded 1.4 goals per game. The match carries importance for both sides aiming to climb the table, with Groningen looking to capitalize on their recent form and goal threat away from home.

BT4Y best bet

Groningen to Win

  • Groningen have scored 2.8 goals per game recently, showing strong attacking form.
  • AZ Alkmaar have struggled offensively, scoring only 0.6 goals per game in recent matches.
  • Groningen's over 2.5 goals rate is 100%, indicating high-scoring games.
  • AZ Alkmaar's BTTS rate is low at 20%, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities may be exploited.
  • Groningen's key players like T. Willumsson contribute significantly to goal threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Groningen to win with a 66.2% chance, reflecting their superior recent attacking output and higher shot quality compared to AZ Alkmaar. Groningen's perfect over 2.5 goals rate and strong goal threat from players like T. van Bergen support this . The price at 5.5 offers excellent value given the implied chance is only 18.2%. This mismatch in form and offensive potency underpins the model's positive stance on Groningen's victory. No data limitations affect this assessment, making the pick a compelling choice based on current trends and player impact.

Model chance33.2% model chance vs 18.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied chance33.2% model chance vs 18.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Groningen recent goals per game2.8
Strong positive
AZ Alkmaar recent goals per game0.6
Negative
Over 2.5 goals rate (Groningen)100%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Groningen's recent offensive form and higher shot volume make them a tactically sound pick to win this match. Their ability to create and convert chances contrasts with AZ Alkmaar's struggles in attack, providing a clear data-driven reason to back Groningen for the victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Groningen's attacking momentum and clinical finishing set them apart in this fixture, making their win a plausible outcome despite the . Their key players' influence and shot quality underline their potential to capitalize on AZ Alkmaar's defensive lapses.”

Key Data Signals

Groningen to Win evidence

Groningen have scored 2.8 goals per game recently, showing strong attacking form.

AZ Alkmaar have struggled offensively, scoring only 0.6 goals per game in recent matches.

Groningen's over 2.5 goals rate is 100%, indicating high-scoring games.

AZ Alkmaar's BTTS rate is low at 20%, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities may be exploited.

What To Watch In The Data

Groningen to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.4, with Groningen's recent matches showing a 100% over 2.5 goals rate.
  • This trend indicates a high-tempo game with multiple scoring opportunities, supporting expectations for an open and attacking encounter favoring Groningen.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AZ Alkmaar0.6
Avg goals scored
Groningen2.8
AZ Alkmaar1.4
Avg goals conceded
Groningen2.2
AZ Alkmaar20%
BTTS rate
Groningen80%
AZ Alkmaar20%
Over 2.5 goals
Groningen100%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 44% vs implied 35% · edge +9.7 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2
Check odds @ 2
Groningen's perfect 100% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with AZ Alkmaar's low scoring and BTTS rates, suggesting this match is likely to feature multiple goals. Groningen's offensive style and AZ Alkmaar's defensive vulnerabilities create conditions conducive to goals and BTTS outcomes.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Eredivisie fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGroningen to WinBetfred guide price · Model 33% vs implied 18% · edge +15 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Load more odds for this section
Groningen Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 44%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The 33.2% for Groningen to Win sits against roughly 18.2% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Groningen have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for AZ Alkmaar.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AZ Alkmaar

LLDLW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
31 Oct 2026A Ajax0-1
25 Oct 2026H Twente0-2
18 Oct 2026A Cambuur2-2
10 Oct 2026A Feyenoord0-2
20 Sep 2026H Telstar1-0

Groningen

LDLWW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
01 Nov 2026H Sparta Rotterdam2-3
25 Oct 2026A NEC Nijmegen2-2
18 Oct 2026H Ajax2-5
11 Oct 2026A Excelsior5-1
18 Sep 2026H PEC Zwolle3-0
Market aligned with main pickGroningen to WinBetfred guide price · Model 33% vs implied 18% · edge +15 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Groningen Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 44%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Groningen's recent form shows a strong attacking output with 7 points and 2.8 goals per game, while AZ Alkmaar have managed only 4 points and 0.6 goals per game. This contrast in momentum favors Groningen and supports their chances of securing a win in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%AZ Alkmaar Over 2.5
100%Groningen Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.4, with Groningen's recent matches showing a 100% over 2.5 goals rate. This trend indicates a high-tempo game with multiple scoring opportunities, supporting expectations for an open and attacking encounter favoring Groningen.

Loading deeper match data…