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Ekstraklasa | Sun 08 Nov, 16:30

Legia Warszawa v Raków Częstochowa Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 04:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Legia Warszawa hosts Raków Częstochowa in an Ekstraklasa clash where contrasting league positions set the stage for an intriguing encounter. Legia, sitting third, have shown solid defensive form conceding less than a goal per game recently, while Raków, struggling near the bottom, have a more open style that yields high-scoring matches. Raków's attacking approach and Legia's home ambition suggest a contest where both sides could find the net, despite Raków's defensive vulnerabilities. The match promises tactical battles with Legia aiming to control possession and Raków relying on quick transitions and attacking intent.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Legia Warszawa concedes under 1 goal per game recently, showing defensive resilience.
  • Raków Częstochowa scores frequently but concedes over 2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Both teams have a combined BTTS rate of 80%, supporting goal-scoring from both sides.
  • Raków's 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches suggests open, high-scoring games.
  • Legia averages 12 shots per game; Raków averages 18.2 shots, indicating attacking intent from both sides.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76% chance for both teams to score, reflecting the attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities of both sides. Raków's perfect recent BTTS and over 2.5 goals rates highlight their open playstyle, while Legia's consistent goal-scoring and moderate defensive concessions support a scenario where both teams find the net. The at 1.62 offer positive value against the implied 61.7% chance, making this a solid pick based on recent form and tactical outlook. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Model Chance76% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+14.3 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance vs Model76% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+14.3 pts)
Strong positive
Raków BTTS Rate100% recent matches
Strong positive
Legia Defensive Form0.8 goals conceded per game
Positive
Price Value Edge76% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+14.3 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown clear attacking intent and vulnerabilities that make a BTTS outcome likely. Raków's high shot volume and goal-scoring form combined with Legia's home motivation and offensive capabilities create a scenario where both sides can score. The data supports an open game with goals at both ends, making the BTTS pick a tactically and statistically sound choice.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS rationale

“Raków's aggressive attacking style paired with Legia's home offensive pressure sets up a classic BTTS scenario. Both teams create enough chances and have defensive gaps that should lead to goals from each side.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Legia Warszawa concedes under 1 goal per game recently, showing defensive resilience.

Raków Częstochowa scores frequently but concedes over 2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

Both teams have a combined BTTS rate of 80%, supporting goal-scoring from both sides.

Raków's 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches suggests open, high-scoring games.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.3 goals per game, indicating a moderately open scoring pattern.
  • Raków's recent 100% over 2.5 goals rate and Legia's 40% rate suggest a game tempo that can produce multiple goals.
  • The trend supports an Over 2.5 goals environment, which aligns with the BTTS pick as both teams have shown capability to score and concede in recent encounters.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Legia Warszawa1.4
Avg goals scored
Raków Częstochowa1.8
Legia Warszawa0.8
Avg goals conceded
Raków Częstochowa2.2
Legia Warszawa60%
BTTS rate
Raków Częstochowa100%
Legia Warszawa40%
Over 2.5 goals
Raków Częstochowa100%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 80%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Recent form shows Raków scoring in every match and conceding heavily, while Legia scores regularly and concedes less but still allows goals. Both teams have BTTS rates of 100% and 60% respectively, combining for a strong likelihood of goals at both ends. The attacking styles and defensive records suggest a match with multiple goals and both teams scoring is a realistic outcome.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Legia Warszawa Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Legia Warszawa to WinBetUK guide price · model 55%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Raków Częstochowa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Raków Częstochowa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The 76% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (+14.3 pts). Legia Warszawa show a 60% BTTS rate and Raków Częstochowa show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Legia Warszawa

DLDWW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 5D 1L
30 Oct 2026A Gornik Zabrze0-0
25 Oct 2026H Lech Poznan1-2
17 Oct 2026A Cracovia Krakow1-1
11 Oct 2026H Wisla Krakow2-0
20 Sep 2026A Jagiellonia3-1

Raków Częstochowa

WLWLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 7L
02 Nov 2026H Pogon Szczecin3-1
24 Oct 2026A Wisla Krakow1-2
16 Oct 2026A Wieczysta Kraków2-1
09 Oct 2026H GKS Katowice1-4
19 Sep 2026A Korona Kielce2-3
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 82% vs implied 78% · edge +3.5 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Legia Warszawa Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Legia Warszawa to WinBetUK guide price · model 55%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Raków Częstochowa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Raków Częstochowa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Legia has earned 8 points recently with a modest 1.4 goals per game and a solid defensive record, while Raków has collected 6 points but concedes over 2 goals per game and scores 1.8. Raków's perfect over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Legia's more conservative 40%, reflecting their differing tactical approaches but combined suggesting a match with goals from both sides.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Legia Warszawa Over 2.5
100%Raków Częstochowa Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.3 goals per game, indicating a moderately open scoring pattern. Raków's recent 100% over 2.5 goals rate and Legia's 40% rate suggest a game tempo that can produce multiple goals. The trend supports an Over 2.5 goals environment, which aligns with the BTTS pick as both teams have shown capability to score and concede in recent encounters.

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