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SC Freiburg crestSC Freiburg
v
Union Berlin crestUnion Berlin

Bundesliga | Sun 08 Nov, 16:30

SC Freiburg v Union Berlin Stats

Data last updated: Sun 08 Nov 2026, 12:04 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

SC Freiburg hosts Union Berlin at Europa-Park Stadion, aiming to extend a remarkable 16-match unbeaten home streak. Freiburg's recent form shows attacking consistency, scoring in 22 consecutive home games, while Union Berlin arrive struggling with three straight away defeats and defensive frailties. Freiburg's superior possession and passing accuracy suggest they will control the tempo, exploiting Union's vulnerability on the flanks. Union's aerial strength and set-piece threat remain a concern, setting up a tactical battle between Freiburg's technical control and Union's physical directness. The fixture carries significant stakes as Freiburg push for European qualification and Union seek to halt their slide.

BT4Y lean · price warning

SC Freiburg to Win

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 68%, above the 55% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Freiburg unbeaten in last 16 home matches across all competitions
  • Union Berlin lost their last three Bundesliga away games
  • Freiburg scored in 22 consecutive home games, showing strong attacking form
  • Union Berlin rely on aerial duels and set-pieces but struggle defensively on the flanks
Price warning

SC Freiburg to Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 68% while the model sits nearer 55% (-12.8 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 1.75.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model favors SC Freiburg to win based on their dominant home form and technical superiority. Freiburg's 16-match unbeaten home run and consistent scoring underline their strength at Europa-Park Stadion. Union Berlin's recent poor away form and defensive struggles, especially against wide attacks, enhance Freiburg's chances. The model's 54.8% win probability exceeds the implied market chance of 47.6%, indicating positive value. The matchup of Freiburg's possession-based style against Union's direct aerial approach supports a home victory, though set-piece risks remain. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Home unbeaten streak16 matches
Strong positive
Freiburg scoring consistency22 consecutive home games
Strong positive
Union Berlin away form3 consecutive losses
Negative
Passing accuracy advantage81.1% vs 71.5%
Positive
Model vs market edge7.2% positive value
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

SC Freiburg's home control and superior technical play make them the clear favorite to secure victory. Their ability to control possession and create chances contrasts with Union Berlin's recent away struggles and defensive weaknesses. This combination of form and tactical advantage underpins the in a Freiburg win.

Main risk

However, their defensive record remains a significant concern.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Freiburg's fortress at Europa-Park Stadion, combined with their precise passing and attacking consistency, sets a strong foundation for victory against a Union Berlin side struggling on the road and reliant on aerial duels.”

Key Data Signals

SC Freiburg to Win evidence

Freiburg unbeaten in last 16 home matches across all competitions

Union Berlin lost their last three Bundesliga away games

Freiburg scored in 22 consecutive home games, showing strong attacking form

Union Berlin rely on aerial duels and set-pieces but struggle defensively on the flanks

What To Watch In The Data

SC Freiburg to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.3, with Freiburg's home matches featuring a 100% over 2.5 goals rate recently.
  • This trend indicates an open game with multiple scoring opportunities, driven by Freiburg's attacking intent and Union's defensive vulnerabilities, supporting expectations of a lively, goal-filled encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

SC Freiburg1.6
Avg goals scored
Union Berlin0.6
SC Freiburg1.8
Avg goals conceded
Union Berlin1.8
SC Freiburg100%
BTTS rate
Union Berlin40%
SC Freiburg100%
Over 2.5 goals
Union Berlin20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have scoring potential, with Freiburg scoring in 100% of recent home matches and Union Berlin scoring less frequently but posing a threat through set-pieces and aerial duels. This suggests a likelihood of goals at both ends, aligning with the competitive 2-1 scoreline prediction and supporting a BTTS outcome.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSC Freiburg to WinBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 68% · edge -12.8 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
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Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
SC Freiburg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
The 54.8% for SC Freiburg to Win sits against roughly 67.6% implied by the current price (-12.8 pts). SC Freiburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Union Berlin. The visitors' need to score to avoid relegation adds to the likelihood of goals at both ends.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Bundesliga fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for SC Freiburg v Union Berlincorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

SC Freiburg

WLLWD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 2L
31 Oct 2026A FC Augsburg2-1
25 Oct 2026H Bayern München1-3
18 Oct 2026A Bayer Leverkusen1-2
11 Oct 2026H FC Schalke 042-1
19 Sep 2026A Eintracht Frankfurt2-2

Union Berlin

DDDWL
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 3L
01 Nov 2026H 1. FC Köln1-1
24 Oct 2026A FC Augsburg1-1
17 Oct 2026H Borussia Dortmund0-0
10 Oct 2026H SV Elversberg1-0
18 Sep 2026A Bayern München0-7
Market aligned with main pickSC Freiburg to WinBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 68% · edge -12.8 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 81%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
SC Freiburg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Freiburg's recent form includes 7 points from their last matches with a high goal-scoring rate (1.6 goals per game), showcasing attacking efficiency at home. Union Berlin's 6 points and lower scoring rate (0.6 goals per game) on the road highlight their struggles. This form disparity favors Freiburg's ability to control and win the match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%SC Freiburg Over 2.5
20%Union Berlin Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.3, with Freiburg's home matches featuring a 100% over 2.5 goals rate recently. This trend indicates an open game with multiple scoring opportunities, driven by Freiburg's attacking intent and Union's defensive vulnerabilities, supporting expectations of a lively, goal-filled encounter.

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