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SS Monopoli crestSS Monopoli
v
Cosenza crestCosenza

Serie C - Girone C | Sun 08 Nov, 13:30

SS Monopoli v Cosenza Stats

Data last updated: Sun 08 Nov 2026, 21:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

SS Monopoli and Cosenza meet in Serie C - Girone C with contrasting league positions and recent form. Monopoli sits comfortably in 6th place with 19 points, showing a balanced attack and defense, while Cosenza struggles near the bottom at 19th with 9 points. Both teams have modest scoring rates and a tendency towards low-scoring matches, reflecting cautious tactical setups. This fixture is likely to be a tactical battle with limited goal-scoring opportunities, as both sides prioritize defensive solidity to avoid costly mistakes in a competitive league phase.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams average around 1 goal per game, indicating low scoring potential.
  • Recent form shows Monopoli with 8 points and Cosenza with 7 points, reflecting tight contests.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, suggesting under 2.5 is more common.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.2 across five matches, supporting a low-scoring trend.
  • League standings show a gap in quality, with Monopoli more stable defensively than Cosenza.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 63.2% chance to Under 2.5 Goals, reflecting the teams' defensive tendencies and modest scoring rates. Both sides average around one goal per game and have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating that low-scoring matches are more frequent. The head-to-head average of 2.2 goals further supports this trend. The price at 1.62 offers a small positive , making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible selection based on tactical caution and recent scoring data.

Model Chance63.2% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+1.5 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance63.2% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+1.5 pts)
Positive
Value Edge63.2% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+1.5 pts)
Positive
Recent Goals For (Monopoli)1.4 per game
Positive
Recent Goals For (Cosenza)1.0 per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a prudent choice given the tactical caution expected from both teams. Monopoli’s stronger league position and defensive discipline combined with Cosenza’s struggles suggest a match with limited clear-cut chances. The statistical trends and recent form data point towards a low-scoring encounter where defenses will likely dominate.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical caution and scoring trends

“This fixture is set for a tactical midfield battle with limited goal-scoring opportunities, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical selection based on both teams' cautious approaches and recent scoring patterns.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average around 1 goal per game, indicating low scoring potential.

Recent form shows Monopoli with 8 points and Cosenza with 7 points, reflecting tight contests.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.2 across five matches, supporting a low-scoring trend.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last five head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.2, indicating a trend towards low to moderate scoring games.
  • Both teams have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate this season, suggesting that most encounters stay under this threshold.
  • The tempo and tactical caution in these fixtures typically limit goal-scoring chances, reinforcing the likelihood of an under 2.5 goals result in this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

SS Monopoli1.4
Avg goals scored
Cosenza1
SS Monopoli1
Avg goals conceded
Cosenza1.4
SS Monopoli40%
BTTS rate
Cosenza60%
SS Monopoli40%
Over 2.5 goals
Cosenza40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 62% · edge +1.5 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 60%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 23%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams average around one goal per game, and their over 2.5 goals rate stands at 40%, indicating that most matches end with fewer than three goals. The head-to-head average of 2.2 goals across five meetings further supports a low-scoring pattern. BTTS rates are mixed, with Cosenza at 60% and Monopoli at 40%, suggesting some chance of both teams scoring but not enough to push totals over 2.5 consistently.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

SS Monopoli

DWWLD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
31 Oct 2026A Barletta0-0
25 Oct 2026H Audace Cerignola2-0
17 Oct 2026A Inter U234-2
10 Oct 2026A Casertana1-3
03 Oct 2026H Savoia0-0

Cosenza

WDLWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
01 Nov 2026H Inter U231-0
24 Oct 2026A Savoia1-1
18 Oct 2026H Team Altamura1-3
12 Oct 2026A AZ Picerno2-1
04 Oct 2026H Foggia0-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 79% vs implied 85% · edge -5.3 pts
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Cosenza Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Cosenza to WinBetUK guide price · model 32%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
SS Monopoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
SS Monopoli Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Recent form data shows Monopoli earning 8 points with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, reflecting solid defensive performances. Cosenza has 7 points with a slightly lower scoring rate and higher goals conceded at 1.4 per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities but limited offensive threat. These trends support a cautious game with under 2.5 goals likely as both teams aim to avoid defeat.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 60% vs implied 50% · edge +10 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Cosenza Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Cosenza to WinBetUK guide price · model 32%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
SS Monopoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
SS Monopoli Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The 63.2% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (+1.5 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for SS Monopoli and 40% for Cosenza, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%SS Monopoli Over 2.5
40%Cosenza Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
In the last five head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.2, indicating a trend towards low to moderate scoring games. Both teams have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate this season, suggesting that most encounters stay under this threshold. The tempo and tactical caution in these fixtures typically limit goal-scoring chances, reinforcing the likelihood of an under 2.5 goals result in this match.

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