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Monza crestMonza
v
Atalanta crestAtalanta

Serie A | Sun 08 Nov, 14:00

Monza v Atalanta Stats

Data last updated: Sun 08 Nov 2026, 03:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Monza and Atalanta face off in a Serie A clash where both teams have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Monza, struggling near the relegation zone, have conceded heavily but maintain an aggressive style, while Atalanta, mid-table with more points, also favor open play. Both sides have recorded 100% Over 2.5 Goals rates recently, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter with tactical openness and offensive emphasis likely to produce multiple goals.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both Monza and Atalanta have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches.
  • Monza concedes an average of 2.4 goals per game, Atalanta 2.6, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Atalanta averages 17.2 shots per game, Monza 10.8, supporting attacking volume.
  • H2H meetings average 3.5 goals per game, reflecting historically open contests.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a strong value bet with a 58% chance against a 43.5% implied probability from , yielding a 14.5% . Both teams have consistently high scoring and conceding rates, with Monza and Atalanta each recording 100% Over 2.5 Goals in recent form and averaging over 2 goals conceded per match. The attacking output, combined with historical head-to-head averages of 3.5 goals, supports expectations of a high-scoring game. No data limitations reduce in this selection.

Model Chance58% model chance vs 43.5% implied (+14.5 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 Goals Rate100% both teams
Strong positive
Goals Conceded per GameMonza 2.4, Atalanta 2.6
Strong positive
H2H Average Goals3.5 goals per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively match with both Monza and Atalanta pushing forward aggressively, given their recent goal-scoring and conceding patterns. The attacking tendencies and historical goal averages suggest a game that will likely exceed three goals, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling pick based on tactical openness and recent form.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive openness

“This fixture's attacking profiles and defensive vulnerabilities strongly hint at a high-scoring encounter, with both sides prone to conceding and eager to press forward, making Over 3.5 Goals a logical expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both Monza and Atalanta have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches.

Monza concedes an average of 2.4 goals per game, Atalanta 2.6, indicating defensive frailty.

Atalanta averages 17.2 shots per game, Monza 10.8, supporting attacking volume.

H2H meetings average 3.5 goals per game, reflecting historically open contests.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • The last six head-to-head matches average 3.5 goals, confirming a trend of open, attacking contests between these teams.
  • This recent sample supports expectations for a fast tempo and multiple goal chances, aligning well with Over 2.5 Goals trends and reinforcing the high-scoring outlook.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Monza1.8
Avg goals scored
Atalanta2.2
Monza2.4
Avg goals conceded
Atalanta2.6
Monza80%
BTTS rate
Atalanta80%
Monza100%
Over 2.5 goals
Atalanta100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 44% · edge +14.5 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have strong recent trends for high-scoring games and BTTS, with Monza and Atalanta each showing 80% BTTS rates and perfect Over 2.5 Goals records. Their offensive openness and defensive fragility suggest multiple goal events, supporting a high total goals expectation.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 64% · edge +14.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Atalanta Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 56%
2
Check odds @ 2
Atalanta to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Monza to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Monza Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 43.5% implied by the current price (+14.5 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Monza and 100% for Atalanta, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Monza

LLLWL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 7L
31 Oct 2026A Bologna1-2
28 Oct 2026H Napoli1-4
23 Oct 2026A Torino2-3
19 Oct 2026H Cagliari4-0
11 Oct 2026A Lazio1-3

Atalanta

LDDLW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
02 Nov 2026H Parma0-3
29 Oct 2026A Fiorentina2-2
25 Oct 2026H Frosinone4-4
18 Oct 2026A AC Milan2-3
12 Oct 2026H Venezia3-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 78% · edge +0.1 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
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Atalanta Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Atalanta to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Monza to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Monza Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Recent form strongly favors Over 3.5 Goals as both teams have consistently participated in high-scoring matches. Monza and Atalanta maintain perfect Over 2.5 Goals rates, with average goals for above 1.8 and goals conceded above 2.4, reflecting open games with frequent scoring opportunities.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Monza Over 2.5
100%Atalanta Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
The last six head-to-head matches average 3.5 goals, confirming a trend of open, attacking contests between these teams. This recent sample supports expectations for a fast tempo and multiple goal chances, aligning well with Over 2.5 Goals trends and reinforcing the high-scoring outlook.

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