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Ham-Kam crestHam-Kam
v
Sarpsborg 08 FF crestSarpsborg 08 FF

Eliteserien | Sun 08 Nov, 16:00

Ham-Kam v Sarpsborg 08 FF Stats

Data last updated: Mon 09 Nov 2026, 04:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF meet in this Eliteserien clash with both sides showing attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Ham-Kam, ranked 13th, have conceded heavily with 2.4 goals against per game, while Sarpsborg 08 FF, sitting 9th, allow 2.6 goals per match. Both teams have strong recent over 2.5 goals rates, 80% and 100% respectively, indicating open games. Sarpsborg's higher league position and slightly better recent form add intrigue, but defensive frailties on both sides suggest a high-scoring encounter is likely.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Ham-Kam concede 2.4 goals per game, Sarpsborg 08 FF concede 2.6
  • Both teams have recent over 2.5 goals rates of 80% (Ham-Kam) and 100% (Sarpsborg)
  • Sarpsborg averages 21.2 shots per game with 6.4 on target, indicating offensive pressure
  • Ofkir averages 1.22 shots on target and 1.22 goals per 90 minutes
  • H2H average goals over last 10 matches is 3.3, supporting a high-scoring trend

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 3.5 Goals at a 58% chance, well above the 44.4% implied by current , offering a 13.6% . Both teams have shown a propensity for high-scoring games recently, with Sarpsborg 08 FF especially prolific in attack and weak in defense. The average goals in their last 10 meetings is 3.3, reinforcing the likelihood of a goal-rich match. The high volume of shots and shots on target from both sides supports the expectation of multiple scoring opportunities. This combination of attacking firepower and defensive frailty underpins the strong model .

Model Chance58% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+13.6 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance58% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+13.6 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge58% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+13.6 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 Goals Rate (Ham-Kam)80%
Positive
Recent Over 2.5 Goals Rate (Sarpsborg 08 FF)100%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF have struggled defensively this season. The high volume of shots and recent scoring trends suggest multiple goals will be scored, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice. The attacking roles of key players like M. Ofkir and Camil Mmaee Nwameben will be crucial in breaking down defenses.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive weaknesses

“This fixture features two teams with leaky defenses but strong attacking intent, setting the stage for a high-scoring match. The statistical trends and player shot volumes strongly support betting on Over 3.5 Goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Ham-Kam concede 2.4 goals per game, Sarpsborg 08 FF concede 2.6

Both teams have recent over 2.5 goals rates of 80% (Ham-Kam) and 100% (Sarpsborg)

Sarpsborg averages 21.2 shots per game with 6.4 on target, indicating offensive pressure

Ofkir averages 1.22 shots on target and 1.22 goals per 90 minutes

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • The last 10 meetings between these teams have averaged 3.3 goals per game, indicating a historical trend of high-scoring encounters.
  • This sample, combined with recent over 2.5 goals rates and attacking styles, suggests a fast tempo and open game with multiple goal chances, reinforcing the likelihood of exceeding 2.5 goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ham-Kam1.6
Avg goals scored
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.8
Ham-Kam2.4
Avg goals conceded
Sarpsborg 08 FF2.6
Ham-Kam60%
BTTS rate
Sarpsborg 08 FF80%
Ham-Kam80%
Over 2.5 goals
Sarpsborg 08 FF100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 44% · edge +13.6 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Both teams have shown a strong tendency for high-scoring matches, with Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF boasting over 2.5 goals rates of 80% and 100% respectively in recent games. The average goals in their last 10 head-to-head matches is 3.3, indicating a consistent pattern of open, goal-rich encounters likely to continue.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 65% · edge +12.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Sarpsborg 08 FF Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Sarpsborg 08 FF to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Ham-Kam Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Ham-Kam to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 44.4% implied by the current price (+13.6 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Ham-Kam and 100% for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ham-Kam

DLLWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
01 Nov 2026A KFUM Oslo2-2
24 Oct 2026H Rosenborg0-3
17 Oct 2026H Bodo/Glimt0-2
11 Oct 2026A Start4-2
20 Sep 2026A Tromso2-3

Sarpsborg 08 FF

LWLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
01 Nov 2026H Kristiansund BK2-4
25 Oct 2026H Aalesund2-1
18 Oct 2026H Rosenborg0-3
11 Oct 2026A Aalesund4-2
18 Sep 2026H KFUM Oslo1-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 77% vs implied 71% · edge +5.7 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Sarpsborg 08 FF Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Sarpsborg 08 FF to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Ham-Kam Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Ham-Kam to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
DrawBetUK guide price · model 27%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Recent form data highlights both teams' inclination towards high-scoring matches. Ham-Kam has an 80% over 2.5 goals rate, while Sarpsborg 08 FF has a perfect 100% in recent games. Both teams have conceded over two goals per match on average, indicating defensive vulnerabilities that contribute to frequent goal exchanges and support the Over 3.5 Goals pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Ham-Kam Over 2.5
100%Sarpsborg 08 FF Over 2.5
3.3H2H avg goals
The last 10 meetings between these teams have averaged 3.3 goals per game, indicating a historical trend of high-scoring encounters. This sample, combined with recent over 2.5 goals rates and attacking styles, suggests a fast tempo and open game with multiple goal chances, reinforcing the likelihood of exceeding 2.5 goals in this fixture.

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