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Santa Clara crestSanta Clara
v
GIL Vicente crestGIL Vicente

Primeira Liga | Sun 08 Nov, 15:30

Santa Clara v GIL Vicente Stats

Data last updated: Sun 08 Nov 2026, 03:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Santa Clara hosts GIL Vicente in a Primeira Liga clash where both teams have shown contrasting recent form and tactical approaches. Santa Clara ranks 4th with 21 points, demonstrating solid defensive organization and efficient attacking output, while GIL Vicente sits 7th with 15 points, struggling to convert chances consistently. Santa Clara's home performances have been marked by disciplined structure and effective use of key attackers, making them slight favorites. GIL Vicente's lower goal-scoring rate and less consistent form add to the challenge they face in this away fixture, setting up a contest where Santa Clara's tactical control and recent momentum are key factors.

BT4Y best bet

Santa Clara to Win

  • Santa Clara holds a higher league position and points tally, reflecting stronger overall form.
  • Santa Clara averages more goals scored per game (1.2) compared to GIL Vicente's 0.8.
  • Both teams have similar defensive records, but Santa Clara's attack is more potent and efficient.
  • Santa Clara's average shots on target per game (3.8) surpass GIL Vicente's (2.8), indicating better chance creation.
  • Santa Clara's recent form includes 10 points from last matches, showing momentum advantage.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Santa Clara to win with a 54.4% chance, supported by their superior recent form, higher goal-scoring rate, and better shot accuracy. Santa Clara's home advantage and tactical discipline contribute to this edge. The at 2.25 offer positive value given the implied chance of 44.4%, making this a confident selection. Defensive solidity combined with efficient attacking players like Gonçalo Paciência enhances the likelihood of a home victory. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Recent FormSanta Clara has earned 10 points recently versus GIL Vicente's 8
Positive
Goal ScoringSanta Clara averages 1.2 goals per game, higher than GIL Vicente's 0.8
Positive
Shots on TargetSanta Clara averages 3.8 SOT per game compared to 2.8 for GIL Vicente
Positive
League PositionSanta Clara 4th vs GIL Vicente 7th in standings
Positive
Price Value54.4% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+10 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Santa Clara's tactical discipline and superior recent form make them the logical choice to secure victory. Their higher goal output and better chance creation underpin this pick, while GIL Vicente's struggles away from home reduce their threat level. Expect Santa Clara to control the match tempo and capitalize on key moments to claim three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Santa Clara's combination of home advantage, efficient attacking players like Gonçalo Paciência, and solid defensive structure creates a strong foundation for a win. GIL Vicente's lower scoring and less consistent form away suggest Santa Clara can impose their game effectively.”

Key Data Signals

Santa Clara to Win evidence

Santa Clara holds a higher league position and points tally, reflecting stronger overall form.

Santa Clara averages more goals scored per game (1.2) compared to GIL Vicente's 0.8.

Both teams have similar defensive records, but Santa Clara's attack is more potent and efficient.

Santa Clara's average shots on target per game (3.8) surpass GIL Vicente's (2.8), indicating better chance creation.

What To Watch In The Data

Santa Clara to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.3 per game, indicating moderately open matches.
  • Santa Clara's 40% over 2.5 goals rate compared to GIL Vicente's 20% suggests Santa Clara games tend to be more open and higher scoring.
  • This trend points to a match with potential for multiple goals, primarily driven by Santa Clara's attacking intent and tempo control.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Santa Clara1.2
Avg goals scored
GIL Vicente0.8
Santa Clara0.6
Avg goals conceded
GIL Vicente0.6
Santa Clara40%
BTTS rate
GIL Vicente40%
Santa Clara40%
Over 2.5 goals
GIL Vicente20%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 67% · edge -0.7 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
5
Check odds @ 5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Both teams have moderate goal-scoring rates, with Santa Clara averaging 1.2 goals and GIL Vicente 0.8 per game. Both teams to score rates are balanced at 40%, suggesting a cautious attacking approach. This points to a controlled goals environment where Santa Clara's defense can limit GIL Vicente's chances, supporting a likely low-scoring match with a single winner.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Santa Clara

WLWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
01 Nov 2026A Maritimo2-0
26 Oct 2026H Benfica1-2
10 Oct 2026A Casa Pia1-0
20 Sep 2026H SC Braga0-0
13 Sep 2026A Arouca2-1

GIL Vicente

DLWWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
02 Nov 2026H Vitória SC0-0
24 Oct 2026H FC Porto0-1
19 Oct 2026A SC Braga2-1
09 Oct 2026A Moreirense1-0
19 Sep 2026H Maritimo1-1
Market aligned with main pickSanta Clara to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 44% · edge +10 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 81%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Santa Clara Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Santa Clara's recent accumulation of 10 points highlights strong momentum, especially at home, contrasting with GIL Vicente's 8 points and less consistent performances. Santa Clara's ability to convert chances and maintain defensive solidity has been key, while GIL Vicente's struggles to score and secure wins away reduce their . This form disparity favors Santa Clara's winning prospects.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Primeira Liga hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSanta Clara to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 44% · edge +10 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Santa Clara Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
The 54.4% for Santa Clara to Win sits against roughly 44.4% implied by the current price (+10 pts). Santa Clara have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 8 for GIL Vicente.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Santa Clara Over 2.5
20%GIL Vicente Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.3 per game, indicating moderately open matches. Santa Clara's 40% over 2.5 goals rate compared to GIL Vicente's 20% suggests Santa Clara games tend to be more open and higher scoring. This trend points to a match with potential for multiple goals, primarily driven by Santa Clara's attacking intent and tempo control.

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