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Kalmar FF crestKalmar FF
v
Sirius crestSirius

Allsvenskan | Sun 08 Nov, 15:30

Kalmar FF v Sirius Stats

Data last updated: Mon 09 Nov 2026, 04:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sirius approaches this Allsvenskan clash against Kalmar FF with strong momentum, sitting second in the league with 58 points compared to Kalmar's 13th place and 23 points. Sirius has shown a more potent attack recently, averaging 1.2 goals per game over their last five matches, while Kalmar has struggled to score, netting just 0.4 goals in the same period. The away side's tactical setup emphasizes quick transitions and effective pressing, which could exploit Kalmar's defensive vulnerabilities. This match carries importance for Sirius to maintain pressure on the league leaders, while Kalmar fights to climb out of the relegation zone, adding intensity to the encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Sirius to Win

  • Sirius ranks 2nd in the league with 58 points, Kalmar FF 13th with 23 points.
  • Sirius averages 1.2 goals per game recently; Kalmar FF averages 0.4 goals.
  • Sirius has a higher average of shots (14.8) and shots on target (4.2) than Kalmar FF (12.2 shots, 4.0 on target).
  • Kalmar FF's recent form includes only 4 points from last matches, Sirius has 7 points.
  • Sirius has a positive of 15.2% with model at 77%.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Sirius to win with a 59.6% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and league standing. Sirius's offensive metrics, including higher shots and shots on target per game, support their attacking threat. Kalmar FF's low scoring rate and defensive struggles increase Sirius's likelihood of victory. The price offers positive value with a 15.2% edge, making Sirius a strong pick without price warnings. is high at 77%, indicating a robust statistical backing for this selection.

Model Win Probability59.6%
Strong positive
Recent Goals ForSirius 1.2 vs Kalmar FF 0.4
Strong positive
Shots per GameSirius 14.8 vs Kalmar FF 12.2
Positive
League PositionSirius 2nd vs Kalmar FF 13th
Strong positive
Value Edge59.4% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Sirius's superior league position and recent attacking form make them the clear favorite to win this match. Their ability to generate more shots and maintain offensive pressure contrasts with Kalmar FF's scoring difficulties, suggesting Sirius can secure a valuable away victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Sirius's consistent offensive threat and higher league standing position them well to exploit Kalmar FF's defensive weaknesses, making their win a logical expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Sirius to Win evidence

Sirius ranks 2nd in the league with 58 points, Kalmar FF 13th with 23 points.

Sirius averages 1.2 goals per game recently; Kalmar FF averages 0.4 goals.

Sirius has a higher average of shots (14.8) and shots on target (4.2) than Kalmar FF (12.2 shots, 4.0 on target).

Kalmar FF's recent form includes only 4 points from last matches, Sirius has 7 points.

What To Watch In The Data

Sirius to Win notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.9, indicating a moderately open game.
  • Both teams have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate recently, suggesting that while goals are possible, the match may not be high scoring.
  • Sirius's offensive consistency and Kalmar FF's defensive issues suggest a tempo favoring Sirius's attack but not necessarily a goal-fest.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Kalmar FF0.4
Avg goals scored
Sirius1.2
Kalmar FF1.2
Avg goals conceded
Sirius1.2
Kalmar FF20%
BTTS rate
Sirius40%
Kalmar FF40%
Over 2.5 goals
Sirius40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 50% · edge +8.6 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 27%
3
Check odds @ 3
Both teams have a 40% rate for over 2.5 goals in recent matches, indicating moderate scoring potential. Sirius's higher goal average and Kalmar FF's low scoring suggest a game leaning towards fewer goals but with chances for Sirius to find the net. BTTS is less likely given Kalmar's low scoring rate, favoring a Sirius win with limited opposition goals.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Kalmar FF

DLLWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 7L
02 Nov 2026A Mjallby AIF0-0
29 Oct 2026H Gais0-1
24 Oct 2026H IF Brommapojkarna0-3
19 Oct 2026A Degerfors IF2-1
12 Oct 2026A Malmo FF0-1

Sirius

WLLDW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
03 Nov 2026H Halmstad2-0
29 Oct 2026A Hammarby FF0-2
24 Oct 2026H AIK Stockholm1-2
18 Oct 2026H IF Elfsborg2-2
10 Oct 2026A Gais1-0
Market aligned with main pickSirius to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Sirius Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Sirius has accumulated 7 points in recent matches, scoring 1.2 goals per game, demonstrating effective attacking form and consistency. Kalmar FF's 4 points and 0.4 goals per game highlight offensive struggles and less momentum. This contrast in form supports Sirius's chances to control the match and secure a win.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSirius to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Sirius Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 59.4% for Sirius to Win sits against roughly 44.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Sirius have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Kalmar FF.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Kalmar FF Over 2.5
40%Sirius Over 2.5
2.9H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.9, indicating a moderately open game. Both teams have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate recently, suggesting that while goals are possible, the match may not be high scoring. Sirius's offensive consistency and Kalmar FF's defensive issues suggest a tempo favoring Sirius's attack but not necessarily a goal-fest.

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