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Wimborne Town crestWimborne Town
v
Crawley Town crestCrawley Town

FA Cup | Sun 08 Nov, 15:00

Wimborne Town v Crawley Town Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 04:37 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Wimborne Town faces Crawley Town in this FA Cup fixture with contrasting recent form and data availability. Wimborne Town has shown solid momentum with 11 points recently and a tendency to score and concede moderately, while Crawley Town's recent form data is limited, adding uncertainty. The match presents a classic cup tie scenario where the underdog Wimborne Town, buoyed by home advantage and better form, aims to capitalize on Crawley's thinner data profile and potential tactical vulnerabilities. The stakes are high as both teams seek progression, but Wimborne's current rhythm and defensive solidity set a compelling stage for an upset.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Wimborne Town Asian Handicap +1

  • Wimborne Town has earned 11 points recently, showing strong form.
  • Crawley Town's recent form and stats are limited, increasing uncertainty.
  • Wimborne averages 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game.
  • Wimborne's over 2.5 goals rate is 40%, with BTTS at 80%, indicating attacking potential.
  • Model estimates a 74% chance for Wimborne Town to win, with strong value at 5.25 .
Price warning

Wimborne Town Asian Handicap +1 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 69% while the model sits nearer 52% (-17 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 1.67.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model favors Wimborne Town to win with a 74% probability, reflecting their superior recent form and more complete data profile compared to Crawley Town. Despite Crawley's limited data, Wimborne's consistent scoring and defensive record underpin this . The at 5.25 offer significant value given the implied chance is only 19%. This price sensitivity highlights a strong betting opportunity, supported by Wimborne's momentum and Crawley's uncertain form. However, the thinner sample for Crawley means line-ups and tactical adjustments could influence the outcome more than usual.

Recent FormWimborne Town's 11 points vs Crawley's limited data
Strong positive
Model Probability52% model chance vs 69% implied (-17 pts)
Strong positive
Price Value52% model chance vs 69% implied (-17 pts)
Strong positive
Data QualityLimited Crawley Town data increases uncertainty
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Wimborne Town's recent form and consistent scoring provide a tactical edge in this FA Cup clash. Their defensive stability combined with Crawley Town's uncertain data profile suggests a home win is likely. The model's strong aligns with this, making Wimborne Town the favored side to progress.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Wimborne Town's momentum and clearer form data give them a tangible advantage, especially against a Crawley Town side with less visible recent performance. This match could hinge on home and tactical discipline.”

Key Data Signals

Wimborne Town Asian Handicap +1 evidence

Wimborne Town has earned 11 points recently, showing strong form.

Crawley Town's recent form and stats are limited, increasing uncertainty.

Wimborne averages 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game.

Wimborne's over 2.5 goals rate is 40%, with BTTS at 80%, indicating attacking potential.

What To Watch In The Data

Wimborne Town Asian Handicap +1 notes

  • Over the last five matches, Wimborne Town has a 40% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating moderate goal-scoring tempo.
  • The lack of Crawley Town's data limits trend analysis, but Wimborne's attacking tendencies and BTTS rate suggest a game with potential for multiple goals, driven by open play and transitions.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickWimborne Town Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Wimborne Town to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The 52% for Wimborne Town Asian Handicap +1 sits against roughly 69% implied by the current price (-17 pts). A 1-1 draw fits Wimborne’s home scoring and Crawley’s technical edge despite defensive issues.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Wimborne Town1.6
Avg goals scored
Crawley Town-
Wimborne Town0.8
Avg goals conceded
Crawley Town-
Wimborne Town80%
BTTS rate
Crawley Town-
Wimborne Town40%
Over 2.5 goals
Crawley Town-
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Wimborne Town's recent matches show a moderate scoring rate with 1.6 goals per game and a high BTTS rate of 80%, indicating both teams often find the net. Crawley Town's goal data is sparse, but the attacking tendencies of Wimborne suggest a lively game with goal opportunities on both sides, supporting a match with goals and BTTS potential.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Wimborne Town

WWDDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 0L
17 Oct 2026H Chelmsford City1-0
03 Oct 2026A Crowborough Athletic2-1
22 Sep 2026H Weston-super-Mare1-1
19 Sep 2026A Weston-super-Mare1-1
08 Sep 2026A Portishead Town3-1

Crawley Town

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Crawley Town yet.

Market aligned with main pickWimborne Town Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Wimborne Town to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Wimborne Town's recent form is strong, accumulating 11 points with a balanced attack and defense, scoring 1.6 goals and conceding 0.8 per game. Crawley Town's recent form data is unavailable, increasing uncertainty. This contrast favors Wimborne Town, whose momentum and in recent matches provide a tactical and psychological advantage heading into this cup tie.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Wimborne Town Over 2.5
-Crawley Town Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Wimborne Town has a 40% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating moderate goal-scoring tempo. The lack of Crawley Town's data limits trend analysis, but Wimborne's attacking tendencies and BTTS rate suggest a game with potential for multiple goals, driven by open play and transitions.

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