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Jagiellonia crestJagiellonia
v
GKS Katowice crestGKS Katowice

Ekstraklasa | Sun 08 Nov, 13:45

Jagiellonia v GKS Katowice Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 04:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Jagiellonia and GKS Katowice meet in an Ekstraklasa clash where both teams have shown attacking intent but also defensive vulnerabilities this season. Jagiellonia, sitting 10th, have struggled to keep clean sheets, conceding 1.6 goals per game, while GKS Katowice, 7th in the table, have a slightly better defensive record but remain prone to conceding. Both sides have averaged 60% of their matches going over 2.5 goals, reflecting open games with goal-scoring opportunities. This fixture promises an attacking battle with potential for multiple goals given recent form and offensive tendencies.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both teams have a 60% rate of matches over 2.5 goals this season.
  • Jagiellonia concedes 1.6 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
  • GKS Katowice averages 1.8 goals scored per game, showing strong attacking output.
  • Recent head-to-head matches average 3.2 goals, suggesting high-scoring encounters.
  • Jagiellonia averages 17 shots per game, indicating sustained offensive pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 48.6% chance for over 3.5 goals, slightly above the implied market chance of 47.6%, indicating a small positive . Both teams have shown attacking prowess and defensive lapses, with Jagiellonia conceding heavily and GKS Katowice scoring frequently. The recent head-to-head average of 3.2 goals supports the likelihood of a high-scoring game. The presence of prolific shooters like Jakub Kokosinski and O. Sow further strengthens the case for multiple goals. The data quality is solid, with no limitations on team stats.

Model Chance48.6% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+1 pts)
Positive
Implied Market Chance48.6% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+1 pts)
Neutral
Jagiellonia Goals Against1.6 per game
Positive
GKS Katowice Goals For1.8 per game
Positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.2 goals
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both Jagiellonia and GKS Katowice have shown tendencies to concede and score frequently this season. The attacking talents on both sides, combined with defensive vulnerabilities, suggest a match ripe for multiple goals, making the over 3.5 goals bet a compelling choice based on form and player profiles.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking and defensive balance shaping goal potential

“This fixture features two teams with offensive strengths and defensive weaknesses, creating fertile ground for a high-scoring encounter. The presence of key attackers like Kokosinski and Sow, who consistently generate shots and chances, supports the expectation of a goal-laden match.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have a 60% rate of matches over 2.5 goals this season.

Jagiellonia concedes 1.6 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

GKS Katowice averages 1.8 goals scored per game, showing strong attacking output.

Recent head-to-head matches average 3.2 goals, suggesting high-scoring encounters.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the last five head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.2, indicating a trend towards high-scoring games between these teams.
  • This trend, combined with both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rates of 60%, suggests a match tempo favoring multiple goal opportunities and an open style of play.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Jagiellonia1.2
Avg goals scored
GKS Katowice1.8
Jagiellonia1.6
Avg goals conceded
GKS Katowice1.2
Jagiellonia60%
BTTS rate
GKS Katowice60%
Jagiellonia60%
Over 2.5 goals
GKS Katowice60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 48% · edge +1 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 85%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals and a similar rate for both teams scoring, indicating open games with goal-scoring from both sides. Jagiellonia's 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, combined with GKS Katowice's 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, point to a fixture likely to see multiple goals and BTTS scenarios.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionGKS Katowice Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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GKS Katowice to WinBetfred guide price · model 51%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
DrawBetUK guide price · model 24%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Jagiellonia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Jagiellonia to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The 48.6% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+1 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Jagiellonia and 60% for GKS Katowice, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Jagiellonia

WWLLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 6L
31 Oct 2026A Wieczysta Kraków3-1
25 Oct 2026H Wisla Plock1-0
18 Oct 2026A Zaglebie Lubin0-1
10 Oct 2026H Gornik Zabrze1-3
20 Sep 2026H Legia Warszawa1-3

GKS Katowice

WLLWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 0D 4L
31 Oct 2026H Widzew Łódź3-2
24 Oct 2026A Korona Kielce0-1
17 Oct 2026H Pogon Szczecin0-1
12 Oct 2026H Wieczysta Kraków2-1
09 Oct 2026A Raków Częstochowa4-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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GKS Katowice Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
GKS Katowice to WinBetfred guide price · model 51%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
DrawBetUK guide price · model 24%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Jagiellonia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Jagiellonia to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Recent form shows both teams averaging 60% of their matches over 2.5 goals, with Jagiellonia scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.6 goals per game, and GKS Katowice scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2. This balance of offensive output and defensive vulnerability suggests a continuation of high-scoring encounters in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Jagiellonia Over 2.5
60%GKS Katowice Over 2.5
3.2H2H avg goals
In the last five head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.2, indicating a trend towards high-scoring games between these teams. This trend, combined with both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rates of 60%, suggests a match tempo favoring multiple goal opportunities and an open style of play.

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