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Sturm Graz crestSturm Graz
v
Red Bull Salzburg crestRed Bull Salzburg

Bundesliga | Sun 08 Nov, 16:00

Sturm Graz v Red Bull Salzburg Stats

Data last updated: Sun 08 Nov 2026, 03:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Bundesliga clash features second-placed Red Bull Salzburg visiting fourth-placed Sturm Graz, both teams in strong form. Salzburg boasts a potent attack averaging 2.8 goals per game and a rock-solid defense conceding just 0.4 goals on average, while Sturm Graz has been competitive but less consistent, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.4 per match. Salzburg's clinical finishing and defensive resilience set a tactical challenge for Sturm Graz, who will need to break down a disciplined away side. The stakes are high as Salzburg aims to consolidate their title challenge, making this an intense and tactical encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Red Bull Salzburg to Win

  • Red Bull Salzburg ranks 2nd with 27 points, showing strong league form.
  • Salzburg averages 2.8 goals per game, indicating attacking potency.
  • Sturm Graz concedes 1.4 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerability.
  • Salzburg's defense is tight, conceding only 0.4 goals per game.
  • Recent form favors Salzburg with 13 points versus Sturm Graz's 8 in last matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Red Bull Salzburg's of 70% reflects their superior attacking output and defensive solidity compared to Sturm Graz. Salzburg's ability to convert chances, supported by key attackers like Konaté and Tabaković, combined with their low goals conceded, underpins in an away win. The of 23.5% at of 2.15 indicates a strong price-quality balance, making this a compelling selection. No price warnings apply, and data quality is solid for both teams, reinforcing the reliability of this pick.

Model chance61.5% model chance vs 46.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value edge61.5% model chance vs 46.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Attacking strength2.8 goals per game for Salzburg
Strong positive
Defensive solidity0.4 goals conceded per game by Salzburg
Strong positive
Recent form13 points for Salzburg vs 8 for Sturm Graz
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Red Bull Salzburg's clinical finishing and defensive discipline make them the clear favorite to win this fixture. Their superior recent form and goal-scoring consistency provide a strong foundation for victory, while Sturm Graz's defensive frailties and lower point accumulation suggest they may struggle to contain Salzburg's attack.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage for Salzburg

“Salzburg's blend of attacking firepower and defensive resilience positions them well to secure all three points, especially given Sturm Graz's defensive lapses and inconsistent form.”

Key Data Signals

Red Bull Salzburg to Win evidence

Red Bull Salzburg ranks 2nd with 27 points, showing strong league form.

Salzburg averages 2.8 goals per game, indicating attacking potency.

Sturm Graz concedes 1.4 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerability.

Salzburg's defense is tight, conceding only 0.4 goals per game.

What To Watch In The Data

Red Bull Salzburg to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.3, indicating a relatively open fixture with multiple scoring opportunities.
  • Salzburg's higher over 2.5 goals rate (80%) compared to Sturm Graz's (60%) suggests a tempo favoring attacking play, with Salzburg likely to contribute significantly to the goal tally.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sturm Graz2.2
Avg goals scored
Red Bull Salzburg2.8
Sturm Graz1.4
Avg goals conceded
Red Bull Salzburg0.4
Sturm Graz60%
BTTS rate
Red Bull Salzburg40%
Sturm Graz60%
Over 2.5 goals
Red Bull Salzburg80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 85% vs implied 90% · edge -4.8 pts
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
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BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Both teams show contrasting BTTS rates: Sturm Graz at 60% and Salzburg at 40%, indicating Salzburg's matches often feature tighter defenses. With an average of 3.3 goals in their last 10 meetings, the fixture tends to produce multiple goals, supporting an expectation of Salzburg scoring and potentially a competitive scoreline.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickRed Bull Salzburg to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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Red Bull Salzburg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
The 61.5% for Red Bull Salzburg to Win sits against roughly 46.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Red Bull Salzburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 8 for Sturm Graz.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sturm Graz

DDWWL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
01 Nov 2026A Wolfsberger AC1-1
25 Oct 2026H Ried2-2
18 Oct 2026H Grazer AK6-1
10 Oct 2026A Austria Vienna2-0
20 Sep 2026A Red Bull Salzburg0-3

Red Bull Salzburg

WWWDW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 3D 0L
01 Nov 2026H Austria Lustenau5-1
25 Oct 2026A Lask Linz3-1
18 Oct 2026H SCR Altach3-0
10 Oct 2026A Grazer AK0-0
20 Sep 2026H Sturm Graz3-0
Market aligned with main pickRed Bull Salzburg to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Red Bull Salzburg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Red Bull Salzburg's recent form is superior, accumulating 13 points compared to Sturm Graz's 8 in their last matches. Salzburg's consistent goal scoring and defensive stability underpin this momentum, while Sturm Graz's form shows vulnerability in defense and less offensive efficiency, making Salzburg the form favorite.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Sturm Graz Over 2.5
80%Red Bull Salzburg Over 2.5
3.3H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.3, indicating a relatively open fixture with multiple scoring opportunities. Salzburg's higher over 2.5 goals rate (80%) compared to Sturm Graz's (60%) suggests a tempo favoring attacking play, with Salzburg likely to contribute significantly to the goal tally.

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