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Virtus Entella crestVirtus Entella
v
Modena crestModena

Serie B | Sun 08 Nov, 14:00

Virtus Entella v Modena Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 04:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Modena arrives at this Serie B fixture in strong form, ranked third with 20 points, double the tally of 14th-placed Virtus Entella. Modena's attacking prowess is evident, averaging 2 goals per game recently, while Virtus Entella struggles to find the net, scoring just 0.8 goals per match. The away side's offensive efficiency and higher league standing set the stage for a competitive encounter, with Modena expected to assert control and capitalize on their momentum. Virtus Entella's defensive vulnerabilities and limited scoring threaten their chances against a confident Modena attack.

BT4Y best bet

Modena to Win

  • Modena holds a 70% to win, with strong value at 2.5 .
  • Modena averages 2 goals per game, significantly higher than Virtus Entella's 0.8.
  • Virtus Entella has a low Over 2.5 Goals rate of 20%, while Modena's is 80%.
  • Modena ranks 3rd in Serie B with 20 points; Virtus Entella is 14th with 10 points.
  • Top Modena attackers like A. Montevago show high goal threat and shot volume.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Modena to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, attacking output, and league position. Modena's average of 2 goals per game and 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate contrast sharply with Virtus Entella's lower scoring and form. Player data highlights key Modena attackers like A. Montevago, who consistently generate shots and goals, underpinning the in Modena's offensive threat. The price offers positive value given the implied chance of 40%, making this a strong tactical and statistical pick.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Modena Goals per Game2.0
Strong positive
Virtus Entella Goals per Game0.8
Negative
Over 2.5 Goals Rate (Modena)80%
Strong positive
League PositionModena 3rd vs Virtus Entella 14th
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Modena's superior attacking form and higher league standing make them the clear favorite to win this match. Their ability to create and convert chances, supported by key players like Belotti and Montevago, provides a solid foundation for victory. Virtus Entella's struggles in front of goal and lower recent points tally suggest they will face a tough challenge overcoming Modena's momentum.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Modena's attacking and tactical advantage

“Modena's attacking efficiency and league position give them a tactical edge, especially with prolific forwards driving their offense. Their consistent shot volume and goal threat make them a compelling choice to secure the win in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Modena to Win evidence

Modena holds a 70% to win, with strong value at 2.5 .

Modena averages 2 goals per game, significantly higher than Virtus Entella's 0.8.

Virtus Entella has a low Over 2.5 Goals rate of 20%, while Modena's is 80%.

Modena ranks 3rd in Serie B with 20 points; Virtus Entella is 14th with 10 points.

What To Watch In The Data

Modena to Win notes

  • In the last four head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.5, aligning with Modena's high Over 2.5 Goals rate of 80%.
  • This trend suggests a match with open play and goal-scoring opportunities, driven by Modena's attacking tempo and Virtus Entella's defensive gaps.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Virtus Entella0.8
Avg goals scored
Modena2
Virtus Entella1.2
Avg goals conceded
Modena1.2
Virtus Entella60%
BTTS rate
Modena80%
Virtus Entella20%
Over 2.5 goals
Modena80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Modena's high Over 2.5 Goals rate of 80% and Virtus Entella's lower 20% suggest a match leaning towards multiple goals, driven by Modena's potent attack and Virtus Entella's defensive vulnerabilities. Both teams have shown tendencies for BTTS, with Modena at 80% and Virtus Entella at 60%, indicating goal-scoring chances on both sides.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickModena to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Modena Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The 55% for Modena to Win sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Modena have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Virtus Entella.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Virtus Entella

LDLWD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
31 Oct 2026A Sampdoria0-2
27 Oct 2026H Avellino1-1
24 Oct 2026H Mantova0-1
17 Oct 2026A Padova2-1
10 Oct 2026H Juve Stabia1-1

Modena

DWWLW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
31 Oct 2026H Mantova1-1
27 Oct 2026A Vicenza Virtus2-1
24 Oct 2026H Cesena3-0
17 Oct 2026A Carrarese1-2
11 Oct 2026H Hellas Verona3-2
Market aligned with main pickModena to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Modena Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Modena's recent form is strong, accumulating 10 points and averaging 2 goals per game, contrasting with Virtus Entella's 5 points and 0.8 goals per game. This form disparity underscores Modena's momentum and , which should translate into sustained pressure and scoring opportunities in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Virtus Entella Over 2.5
80%Modena Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last four head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.5, aligning with Modena's high Over 2.5 Goals rate of 80%. This trend suggests a match with open play and goal-scoring opportunities, driven by Modena's attacking tempo and Virtus Entella's defensive gaps.

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