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Folgore Caratese crestFolgore Caratese
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Athletic Carpi crestAthletic Carpi

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 08 Nov, 16:30

Folgore Caratese v Athletic Carpi Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 04:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Athletic Carpi visits Folgore Caratese in a Serie C - Girone A clash where form and league position suggest a clear advantage for the away side. Athletic Carpi has collected 12 points, sitting 15th, while Folgore Caratese languishes at the bottom with just 7 points. Athletic Carpi’s recent momentum includes scoring at a rate double that of Folgore Caratese, and their defense, though leaky, matches the home side’s vulnerability. This fixture offers Athletic Carpi a chance to extend their positive run and climb further from the relegation zone, while Folgore Caratese must improve sharply to avoid deeper trouble.

BT4Y best bet

Athletic Carpi to Win

  • Athletic Carpi holds a 66.5% to win, indicating strong in an away victory.
  • Folgore Caratese has the league’s lowest points tally and ranks 20th, highlighting their struggles.
  • Athletic Carpi scores on average 1.2 goals per game, double Folgore Caratese’s 0.6, showing superior attacking output.
  • Both teams concede an average of 2.2 goals per game, suggesting defensive frailties that Athletic Carpi can exploit.
  • Recent form favors Athletic Carpi with 6 points gained compared to Folgore Caratese’s single point in recent matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Athletic Carpi to win due to their superior recent form, higher scoring rate, and better league standing compared to Folgore Caratese. Despite both teams conceding frequently, Athletic Carpi’s ability to score more goals and accumulate points positions them as clear favorites. The reflect strong value with a 33.2% edge, supporting a confident backing of the away win. No data limitations or price warnings affect this selection, making it a solid choice based on current performance metrics.

Model chance48.3% model chance vs 33.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value edge48.3% model chance vs 33.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent form pointsAthletic Carpi 6 vs Folgore Caratese 1
Positive
Goals per gameAthletic Carpi 1.2 vs Folgore Caratese 0.6
Positive
Defensive recordBoth concede 2.2 goals per game
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Athletic Carpi’s superior attacking form and higher league position make them the logical choice to secure victory. Their ability to convert chances contrasts with Folgore Caratese’s struggles to score and accumulate points, suggesting Athletic Carpi will control the match and claim the three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Athletic Carpi’s offensive edge and recent momentum create a compelling case for their win, especially against a bottom-ranked Folgore Caratese side that has yet to find consistent form.”

Key Data Signals

Athletic Carpi to Win evidence

Athletic Carpi holds a 66.5% to win, indicating strong in an away victory.

Folgore Caratese has the league’s lowest points tally and ranks 20th, highlighting their struggles.

Athletic Carpi scores on average 1.2 goals per game, double Folgore Caratese’s 0.6, showing superior attacking output.

Both teams concede an average of 2.2 goals per game, suggesting defensive frailties that Athletic Carpi can exploit.

What To Watch In The Data

Athletic Carpi to Win notes

  • Over the recent matches, Athletic Carpi’s 80% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals contrasts with Folgore Caratese’s 60%, indicating a tendency for open, high-scoring games.
  • This trend suggests a lively match with goal-scoring opportunities, especially favoring Athletic Carpi’s attack.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Folgore Caratese0.6
Avg goals scored
Athletic Carpi1.2
Folgore Caratese2.2
Avg goals conceded
Athletic Carpi2.2
Folgore Caratese40%
BTTS rate
Athletic Carpi60%
Folgore Caratese60%
Over 2.5 goals
Athletic Carpi80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 86% vs implied 78% · edge +7.4 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 37%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Both teams concede over two goals per game, and Athletic Carpi’s higher scoring rate suggests this match could see multiple goals. However, Folgore Caratese’s lower BTTS rate (40%) compared to Athletic Carpi’s (60%) indicates some uncertainty on both teams scoring, warranting cautious optimism for goal markets.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAthletic Carpi to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Athletic Carpi Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The 48.3% for Athletic Carpi to Win sits against roughly 33.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Athletic Carpi have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 1 for Folgore Caratese.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Folgore Caratese

LDLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
01 Nov 2026H Union Brescia0-4
25 Oct 2026A Lecco2-2
17 Oct 2026H Treviso0-2
11 Oct 2026A Trento0-1
03 Oct 2026H Desenzano Calvina1-2

Athletic Carpi

LWWLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
01 Nov 2026H Renate0-5
24 Oct 2026A Alcione2-1
17 Oct 2026H Lumezzane3-1
10 Oct 2026A Pergolettese1-2
03 Oct 2026A PRO Vercelli0-2
Market aligned with main pickAthletic Carpi to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Athletic Carpi Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Athletic Carpi’s recent form shows a clear upward trajectory with 6 points gained, contrasting with Folgore Caratese’s single point. This momentum difference reflects Athletic Carpi’s better and match sharpness heading into the fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Folgore Caratese Over 2.5
80%Athletic Carpi Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the recent matches, Athletic Carpi’s 80% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals contrasts with Folgore Caratese’s 60%, indicating a tendency for open, high-scoring games. This trend suggests a lively match with goal-scoring opportunities, especially favoring Athletic Carpi’s attack.

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