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FC Thun crestFC Thun
v
FC Basel 1893 crestFC Basel 1893

Super League | Sun 08 Nov, 15:30

FC Thun v FC Basel 1893 Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 04:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 meet in a Super League clash where attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities shape expectations. FC Thun's recent matches have been high-scoring affairs, conceding over three goals per game on average, while FC Basel 1893 also shows a tendency for open play despite a slightly more conservative defensive record. Both sides have offensive players capable of creating chances, and the fixture promises an open, end-to-end contest with multiple goal opportunities. The stakes are mid-table positioning, adding competitive edge without extreme pressure, suggesting a lively encounter with goal-scoring potential.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • FC Thun concedes an average of 3.2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
  • FC Basel 1893 has an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals this season.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.3 over the last 10 meetings, supporting a high-scoring trend.
  • FC Thun averages 16.4 shots per game with 6 on target, showing offensive volume.
  • Key attackers like R. Sow contribute significantly to shot and goal threat metrics.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a value pick with a 58% chance against an implied market chance of 52.4%, reflecting the attacking profiles and defensive weaknesses of both teams. FC Thun's high goals conceded and FC Basel's openness in attack create a fertile environment for multiple goals. The strong shot volumes and recent form data underline the likelihood of an open game with several scoring opportunities. No data limitations affect , making this a well-supported selection based on current team dynamics and match context.

Model Chance58% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+5.6 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance58% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+5.6 pts)
Neutral
FC Thun Defensive Record3.2 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
FC Basel Over 2.5 Rate80%
Positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.3 goals per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a dynamic encounter with both teams pushing forward, driven by FC Thun's defensive vulnerabilities and FC Basel's attacking intent. The data supports a match featuring multiple goals, as both sides generate significant shot volumes and have key players capable of influencing the scoreline. This match is likely to deliver an entertaining, high-scoring contest.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and match tempo

“The combination of FC Thun's porous defense and FC Basel's offensive creativity sets the stage for a goal-rich game. Both teams' recent matches show a pattern of open play and scoring, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling angle for this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

FC Thun concedes an average of 3.2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

FC Basel 1893 has an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals this season.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.3 over the last 10 meetings, supporting a high-scoring trend.

FC Thun averages 16.4 shots per game with 6 on target, showing offensive volume.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head meetings average 3.3 goals per game, indicating a historical trend toward high-scoring encounters between these teams.
  • This sample, combined with recent form and season data, suggests a tempo and tactical openness conducive to multiple goals.
  • The trend supports the likelihood of an over 2.5 goals outcome, reinforcing the case for Over 3.5 Goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FC Thun2.6
Avg goals scored
FC Basel 18931.2
FC Thun3.2
Avg goals conceded
FC Basel 18932
FC Thun100%
BTTS rate
FC Basel 189360%
FC Thun100%
Over 2.5 goals
FC Basel 189380%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 52% · edge +5.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Both teams have shown a propensity for matches with multiple goals and BTTS occurrences, with FC Thun at 100% BTTS rate and FC Basel at 60%. Their attacking output combined with defensive lapses creates a scenario ripe for goals from both sides, supporting an over 3.5 goals outcome through open play and transitional chances.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 78% vs implied 71% · edge +6.6 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
FC Thun Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
FC Thun to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
FC Basel 1893 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
DrawBetUK guide price · model 26%
4
Check odds @ 4
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 52.4% implied by the current price (+5.6 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for FC Thun and 80% for FC Basel 1893, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FC Thun

WLLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
01 Nov 2026A Lausanne5-4
25 Oct 2026H FC Lugano2-3
10 Oct 2026A FC Zurich2-4
20 Sep 2026A FC Vaduz2-1
16 Sep 2026H Servette FC2-4

FC Basel 1893

LDLLW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
01 Nov 2026A FC Lugano1-2
25 Oct 2026H Grasshoppers0-0
11 Oct 2026A FC Vaduz0-3
20 Sep 2026H FC ST. Gallen1-3
13 Sep 2026A FC Luzern4-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 82% vs implied 74% · edge +8.4 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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FC Thun Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
FC Thun to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
FC Basel 1893 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
DrawBetUK guide price · model 26%
4
Check odds @ 4
FC Basel 1893 to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
3
Check odds @ 3
Recent form data highlights FC Thun's matches consistently exceeding 2.5 goals at a 100% rate, underscoring their open defensive style and attacking willingness. FC Basel also shows a strong trend with 80% of games over 2.5 goals, reflecting a pattern of matches with multiple scoring events. These trends suggest both teams are accustomed to high-tempo games with goal-scoring opportunities, reinforcing the Over 3.5 Goals selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%FC Thun Over 2.5
80%FC Basel 1893 Over 2.5
3.3H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head meetings average 3.3 goals per game, indicating a historical trend toward high-scoring encounters between these teams. This sample, combined with recent form and season data, suggests a tempo and tactical openness conducive to multiple goals. The trend supports the likelihood of an over 2.5 goals outcome, reinforcing the case for Over 3.5 Goals in this fixture.

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