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Larne crestLarne
v
Tre Fiori crestTre Fiori

UEFA Champions League | Tue 14 Jul, 20:00

Larne v Tre Fiori Stats

Data last updated: Wed 05 Aug 2026, 01:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Larne face Tre Fiori in UEFA Champions League on Tue 14 Jul, 20:00. Larne return to Northern Ireland with a one-goal advantage, but their Champions League first qualifying-round contest against Tre Fiori remains far from settled. Analysing Larne's attacking rhythm reveals they have consistently scored in ten consecutive home fixtures.

BT4Y best bet

Larne Win

  • At 4/1, Larne Win implies roughly 20%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 35%.
  • Larne's solid defensive stability is evident from keeping five clean sheets across their last six outings.
  • Larne have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Tre Fiori.
  • Larne have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Larne Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 35% for Larne Win sits against roughly 20% implied by the current price. Larne have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Tre Fiori. Larne's solid defensive stability is evident from keeping five clean sheets across their last six outings.

Model chance vs price35% model chance against roughly 20% implied
Strong positive
Larne have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points.Visible data support
Positive
Larne have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Larne's solid defensive stability is evident from keeping five.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Larne Win is the preferred angle because larne's solid defensive stability is evident from keeping five clean sheets across their last six outings. Larne have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Tre Fiori. At some stage, they must push more players forward, accept greater risk and expose spaces that Larne were not consistently able to attack in the opening match.

Main risk

At some stage, they must push more players forward, accept greater risk and expose spaces that Larne were not consistently able to attack in the opening match.

Key Data Signals

Larne Win evidence

Larne's solid defensive stability is evident from keeping five clean sheets across their last six outings.

Larne have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Tre Fiori.

Larne have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Larne Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Larne Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Larne1
    Avg goals scored
    Tre Fiori0
    Larne0
    Avg goals conceded
    Tre Fiori1
    Larne0%
    BTTS rate
    Tre Fiori0%
    Larne0%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Tre Fiori0%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 68%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Larne

    W
    Last 51W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 0L
    07 Jul 2026A Tre Fiori1-0

    Tre Fiori

    L
    Last 50W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 1L
    07 Jul 2026H Larne0-1
    Market aligned with main pickLarne to WinBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 86% · edge -17.3 pts
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
    1.01
    Check odds @ 1.01
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickLarne to WinBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 86% · edge -17.3 pts
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Larne to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Larne wins
    0Draws
    0Tre Fiori wins
    07 Jul 2026Tre Fiori v Larne0-1
    Market aligned with main pickLarne to WinBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 86% · edge -17.3 pts
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Larne to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    UEFA Champions League

    Larne4
    Played
    Tre Fiori2
    Larne0.8
    Avg goals for
    Tre Fiori0.5
    Larne2.5
    Avg goals against
    Tre Fiori1.5
    Larne1
    Clean sheets
    Tre Fiori0
    Market aligned with main pickLarne to WinBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 86% · edge -17.3 pts
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Season data supports Larne to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    0%Larne Over 2.5
    0%Tre Fiori Over 2.5
    1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Larne sit at 0% and Tre Fiori sit at 0% with the H2H average at 1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.