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Abha crestAbha
v
Al Shabab crestAl Shabab

Pro League | Thu 05 Nov, 15:10

Abha v Al Shabab Stats

Data last updated: Wed 04 Nov 2026, 07:39 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Al Shabab enters this Pro League clash with strong momentum, sitting comfortably in 10th place with 14 points, compared to Abha's 18th position and 3 points. Al Shabab's attacking prowess is evident, averaging 2.8 goals per game and creating significantly more shots and shots on target than Abha, who have struggled to score and accumulate points. This match presents a clear opportunity for Al Shabab to extend their positive run against a side facing defensive challenges and limited offensive output, setting the stage for a likely away victory.

BT4Y best bet

Al Shabab to Win

  • Al Shabab ranks 10th with 14 points; Abha is 18th with 3 points.
  • Al Shabab averages 2.8 goals per game; Abha scores 0.4 on average.
  • Al Shabab creates 17.2 shots and 6.6 shots on target per game, nearly double Abha's 8.8 shots and 3 shots on target.
  • Al Shabab's over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, indicating frequent high-scoring matches.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.9 over 10 matches, supporting attacking play.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Al Shabab to win, assigning a 70% chance supported by their superior recent form, offensive statistics, and league standing. Al Shabab's high shot volume and goal-scoring rate contrast sharply with Abha's struggles in attack and defense. The 1.83 offer positive value given the 54.6% implied chance, reflecting in Al Shabab's ability to capitalize on Abha's vulnerabilities. No data limitations affect this assessment, making the selection a solid choice based on current team performance and statistical indicators.

Model Chance69.6% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance vs Model69.6% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormAl Shabab 11 points vs Abha 2 points (last 5 matches)
Strong positive
Goal Scoring RateAl Shabab 2.8 vs Abha 0.4 goals per game
Strong positive
Shot VolumeAl Shabab 17.2 vs Abha 8.8 shots per game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Al Shabab's clear superiority in recent form and attacking output makes them the logical choice to secure victory. Their ability to generate high-quality chances and maintain defensive solidity contrasts with Abha's struggles, suggesting a controlled away win is likely in this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Al Shabab's offensive dynamism and consistent shot creation provide a strong foundation for an away win, especially given Abha's defensive frailties and low scoring record.”

Key Data Signals

Al Shabab to Win evidence

Al Shabab ranks 10th with 14 points; Abha is 18th with 3 points.

Al Shabab averages 2.8 goals per game; Abha scores 0.4 on average.

Al Shabab creates 17.2 shots and 6.6 shots on target per game, nearly double Abha's 8.8 shots and 3 shots on target.

Al Shabab's over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, indicating frequent high-scoring matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Al Shabab to Win notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.9, indicating a tendency for open games with multiple goals.
  • Al Shabab's high over 2.5 goals rate of 80% in recent matches aligns with this trend, suggesting a fast tempo and attacking style likely to produce goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Abha0.4
Avg goals scored
Al Shabab2.8
Abha1.2
Avg goals conceded
Al Shabab0.8
Abha40%
BTTS rate
Al Shabab60%
Abha20%
Over 2.5 goals
Al Shabab80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 60% vs implied 62% · edge -1.7 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Al Shabab's matches feature a high over 2.5 goals rate of 80%, while Abha's rate is only 20%, indicating contrasting styles. The head-to-head average of 2.9 goals per game supports the likelihood of multiple goals, with Al Shabab's potent attack expected to break down Abha's defense, increasing chances for goals and BTTS outcomes.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAl Shabab to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Al Shabab Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The 69.6% for Al Shabab to Win sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Al Shabab have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 2 for Abha.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Abha

DLLLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 7L
30 Oct 2026H Al-Ittihad FC1-1
27 Oct 2026H Al-Faisaly FC0-1
24 Oct 2026A NEOM0-2
16 Oct 2026A Al-Qadisiyah FC1-2
13 Sep 2026A Al Diriyah0-0

Al Shabab

WWDWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
30 Oct 2026H Al-Ahli Jeddah6-1
22 Oct 2026A Al-Fateh3-1
19 Oct 2026H Al-Faisaly FC2-2
11 Oct 2026H Al Taawon3-0
12 Sep 2026H Al-Fayha0-0
Market aligned with main pickAl Shabab to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Al Shabab Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Al Shabab's recent form is markedly stronger, accumulating 11 points in the last five matches compared to Abha's 2 points. This momentum is underpinned by a high goal-scoring rate and defensive resilience, contrasting with Abha's struggles to score and prevent goals, reinforcing in an Al Shabab victory.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Abha Over 2.5
80%Al Shabab Over 2.5
2.9H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.9, indicating a tendency for open games with multiple goals. Al Shabab's high over 2.5 goals rate of 80% in recent matches aligns with this trend, suggesting a fast tempo and attacking style likely to produce goals in this fixture.

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