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Sunderland crestSunderland
v
Dinamo Zagreb crestDinamo Zagreb

UEFA Europa League | Thu 05 Nov, 20:00

Sunderland v Dinamo Zagreb Stats

Data last updated: Thu 05 Nov 2026, 10:00 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sunderland hosts Dinamo Zagreb in a crucial UEFA Europa League clash as both teams seek European stability amid domestic challenges. Sunderland remains unbeaten in Europe with two wins and a draw, showing resilience despite poor Premier League form and defensive frailty. Dinamo Zagreb, undergoing managerial change, have a potent attack led by Dion Drena Beljo, who has scored 17 goals this season. Both sides have shown scoring ability and defensive vulnerabilities, setting the stage for an open, high-tempo match with goals likely at both ends.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 60%, above the 34% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Sunderland have kept only one clean sheet in their last eight matches, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Dinamo Zagreb's Dion Drena Beljo has scored 17 goals in 18 appearances, posing a significant threat.
  • Both teams have scored in three of Dinamo's four European away games this season, suggesting an open game.
  • Sunderland's recent European form includes two wins and a draw, showing strong attacking momentum.
Price warning

Over 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 60% while the model sits nearer 34% (-25.9 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Sunderland Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 2.15.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The Over 2.5 Goals pick is primarily football-led due to Sunderland's defensive struggles and Dinamo's attacking prowess, especially Beljo's scoring form. Despite the being 34%, the market price implies a 62.5% chance, making the price short and the selection price-sensitive. The tactical context of both teams seeking goals amid defensive lapses supports a high-scoring game. Reduced staking or waiting for improvement is advised, as stronger line-ups or late data could enhance value.

Sunderland Defensive RecordOnly 1 clean sheet in last 8 matches
Strong positive
Dinamo Zagreb AttackBeljo with 17 goals in 18 games
Strong positive
Market Price vs Model Chance34% model chance vs 59.9% implied (-25.9 pts)
Negative
Both Teams Scoring TrendDinamo scored in 3 of 4 European away matches
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The Over 2.5 Goals selection reflects Sunderland's defensive vulnerabilities and Dinamo Zagreb's attacking threat, particularly from Dion Drena Beljo. Sunderland's unbeaten European run suggests they will push forward, while Dinamo's scoring consistency ensures goals at both ends. This combination makes a high-scoring encounter likely, aligning with the tactical and form data.

Main risk

Away performances in Europe represent another concern.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking and defensive dynamics

“Sunderland's porous defense combined with Dinamo's clinical attack, spearheaded by Beljo, sets up a fixture ripe for goals. Both sides' recent European performances underline the likelihood of an open game with multiple scoring opportunities.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Dinamo Zagreb's Dion Drena Beljo has scored 17 goals in 18 appearances, posing a significant threat.

Both teams have scored in three of Dinamo's four European away games this season, suggesting an open game.

Sunderland's recent European form includes two wins and a draw, showing strong attacking momentum.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last three European matches for both teams, the trend towards Over 2.5 Goals is moderate but supported by Sunderland's attacking pressure and Dinamo's scoring consistency.
  • The tempo and tactical openness, combined with defensive vulnerabilities, suggest a fixture prone to multiple goals, aligning with the recent goal-scoring patterns in this competition.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sunderland1.33
Avg goals scored
Dinamo Zagreb1
Sunderland0.67
Avg goals conceded
Dinamo Zagreb1.33
Sunderland67%
BTTS rate
Dinamo Zagreb33%
Sunderland33%
Over 2.5 goals
Dinamo Zagreb33%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 34% vs implied 60% · edge -25.9 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Both teams have shown a tendency to score in this competition, with Dinamo scoring in three of four European away games and Sunderland's attacking momentum evident in their unbeaten run. Sunderland's defensive frailty and Dinamo's goal threat suggest both teams will find the net, supporting an open, goal-rich match scenario.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Europa League fixtures and predictionsSunderland v Dinamo Zagreb predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 34% vs implied 60% · edge -25.9 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Sunderland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Sunderland to WinBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Dinamo Zagreb to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
The 34% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (-25.9 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 33% for Sunderland and 33% for Dinamo Zagreb, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Both teams have scored in most of Dinamo's European away games, suggesting an open, high-scoring match likely.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sunderland

DWW
Last 52W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 0L
22 Oct 2026A Lech Poznan1-1
15 Oct 2026A Torreense2-1
16 Sep 2026H AZ Alkmaar1-0

Dinamo Zagreb

LWD
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
22 Oct 2026H NEC Nijmegen2-4
15 Oct 2026H Anderlecht1-0
16 Sep 2026A Hapoel Beer Sheva0-0
Best odds for this sectionSunderland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Sunderland to WinBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Dinamo Zagreb to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Dinamo Zagreb Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Sunderland's recent form in Europe is strong, with 7 points from 3 matches and an average of 1.33 goals scored per game, while conceding 0.67. Dinamo has 4 points with a slightly lower scoring rate but concedes more, averaging 1.33 goals against. Both teams have a 33% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches, indicating a moderate but rising trend towards higher scoring games.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Sunderland Over 2.5
33%Dinamo Zagreb Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last three European matches for both teams, the trend towards Over 2.5 Goals is moderate but supported by Sunderland's attacking pressure and Dinamo's scoring consistency. The tempo and tactical openness, combined with defensive vulnerabilities, suggest a fixture prone to multiple goals, aligning with the recent goal-scoring patterns in this competition.

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