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Atalanta crestAtalanta
v
Kairat Almaty crestKairat Almaty

UEFA Europa Conference League | Thu 05 Nov, 17:45

Atalanta v Kairat Almaty Stats

Data last updated: Wed 04 Nov 2026, 09:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atalanta faces Kairat Almaty in the UEFA Europa Conference League group stage, with Atalanta holding a slight edge in recent form and group standings. Atalanta has collected 7 points with a solid defensive record, conceding less than one goal per game, while Kairat Almaty has struggled defensively, conceding 3 goals per match on average. Both teams have shown moderate attacking output, but the tactical setup and stakes suggest a cautious approach, likely limiting goal-scoring opportunities in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Atalanta concedes only 0.75 goals per game, indicating defensive solidity.
  • Kairat Almaty concedes 3 goals per game, but their attack has been inconsistent.
  • Both teams have relatively low BTTS rates, with Atalanta at 25% and Kairat at 100%, indicating mixed scoring patterns.
  • Recent matches show Atalanta’s Over 2.5 Goals rate at 25%, supporting a low-scoring game.
  • Model projects a 66% chance for Under 2.5 Goals with positive value at of 2.88.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% probability, reflecting Atalanta’s strong defensive record and cautious tactical approach in European competition. Despite Kairat Almaty’s defensive vulnerabilities, their inconsistent attack and Atalanta’s controlled style limit goal-scoring chances. The of 2.88 offer good value given the low scoring tempo and recent form data. is high at 88%, supported by stable defensive performances and shot metrics indicating limited high-quality chances. No data limitations affect this analysis.

Defensive strengthAtalanta concedes 0.75 goals per game
Strong positive
Attacking inconsistencyKairat Almaty’s attack yields 1 goal per game but concedes 3
Neutral
Shot volumeAtalanta averages 14.75 shots, Kairat 13, moderate pressure
Positive
BTTS ratesAtalanta 25%, Kairat 100%, mixed scoring patterns
Neutral
Model confidence88% confidence in Under 2.5 Goals
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible pick given Atalanta’s disciplined defense and the tactical caution expected in this group-stage fixture. Kairat Almaty’s inconsistent attack and Atalanta’s control of possession suggest a match with limited clear-cut chances and a lower goal count. The data supports a tight game where defensive organization will be key.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · defensive tactics and scoring patterns

“Atalanta’s defensive resilience combined with Kairat Almaty’s inconsistent attack sets the stage for a low-scoring encounter. The tactical emphasis on control and risk management in European competition favors Under 2.5 Goals as a strong strategic selection.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Atalanta concedes only 0.75 goals per game, indicating defensive solidity.

Kairat Almaty concedes 3 goals per game, but their attack has been inconsistent.

Both teams have relatively low BTTS rates, with Atalanta at 25% and Kairat at 100%, indicating mixed scoring patterns.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have shown low Over 2.5 Goals rates, with Atalanta at 25% and Kairat Almaty at 50%.
  • The trend suggests a moderate tempo with limited high-scoring games.
  • The average goals per match in recent fixtures align with a controlled scoring environment, reinforcing the rationale for Under 2.5 Goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Atalanta1
Avg goals scored
Kairat Almaty1
Atalanta0.75
Avg goals conceded
Kairat Almaty3
Atalanta25%
BTTS rate
Kairat Almaty100%
Atalanta25%
Over 2.5 goals
Kairat Almaty50%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 56%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Goal and BTTS data show Atalanta scoring and conceding fewer goals, with only 25% BTTS rate, while Kairat Almaty has a higher BTTS rate but inconsistent scoring. This suggests a controlled game with limited goal exchanges, supporting a low total goals outcome and a BTTS No scenario.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Atalanta to WinBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Kairat Almaty to WinBet365 guide price · model 11%
15
Check odds @ 15
DrawBet365 guide price · model 14%
7
Check odds @ 7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The 49.7% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 34.7% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 25% for Atalanta and 50% for Kairat Almaty, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Atalanta

LWWD
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
22 Oct 2026A Ajax0-2
15 Oct 2026H Pafos3-1
27 Aug 2026A Hapoel Tel Aviv1-0
20 Aug 2026H Hapoel Tel Aviv0-0

Kairat Almaty

LD
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
22 Oct 2026H Panathinaikos1-5
15 Oct 2026A Riga1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.03
Check odds @ 1.03
Atalanta to WinBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Kairat Almaty to WinBet365 guide price · model 11%
15
Check odds @ 15
DrawBet365 guide price · model 14%
7
Check odds @ 7
Recent form data shows Atalanta with 7 points and a low goals-against average, highlighting defensive consistency. Kairat Almaty’s form is weaker with only 1 point and a higher goals conceded rate. Both teams have low Over 2.5 Goals rates recently, reinforcing the expectation of a low-scoring match shaped by defensive caution and tactical control.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

25%Atalanta Over 2.5
50%Kairat Almaty Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have shown low Over 2.5 Goals rates, with Atalanta at 25% and Kairat Almaty at 50%. The trend suggests a moderate tempo with limited high-scoring games. The average goals per match in recent fixtures align with a controlled scoring environment, reinforcing the rationale for Under 2.5 Goals in this fixture.

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