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Benfica crestBenfica
v
Lech Poznan crestLech Poznan

UEFA Europa League | Thu 05 Nov, 20:00

Benfica v Lech Poznan Stats

Data last updated: Wed 04 Nov 2026, 09:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Benfica hosts Lech Poznan in a UEFA Europa League clash where Benfica leads the group and aims to consolidate their position. Benfica's potent attack, averaging over three goals per game recently, contrasts with Lech Poznan's defensive vulnerabilities and lower points tally. The match promises open play with Benfica's offensive pressure and Lech Poznan's need to respond, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter under European night conditions.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Benfica averages 3.2 goals per game with 80% Over 2.5 rate this season.
  • Lech Poznan concedes 2.2 goals per game and has a 40% BTTS rate, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Head-to-head clashes have averaged 5 goals across two matches, suggesting open games.
  • Benfica's attackers like Pavlidis and Cabral have high shot volumes and goal threat.
  • Both teams show strong attacking intent, with Benfica averaging 21.4 shots and Lech Poznan 15.2 shots per game.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 3.5 Goals with a 58% chance, slightly above the implied market chance of 55.6%, indicating modest value. Benfica's prolific scoring and Lech Poznan's defensive struggles create conditions for multiple goals. High shot volumes and recent head-to-head averages support a goal-rich match. The model is solid at 60%, reflecting consistent attacking data and tactical openness. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation.

Benfica scoring rate3.2 goals/game
Strong positive
Lech Poznan defensive record2.2 goals conceded/game
Strong positive
Head-to-head average goals5 goals per match
Positive
Shot volumeBenfica 21.4, Lech Poznan 15.2 shots/game
Positive
Model confidence60%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect Benfica's attacking prowess to dominate this fixture, with their high shot and goal rates likely to overwhelm Lech Poznan's leaky defense. The data strongly points to a match with multiple goals, driven by Benfica's offensive efficiency and Lech Poznan's need to chase the game.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match scoring potential

“Benfica's aggressive forward play combined with Lech Poznan's defensive vulnerabilities sets the stage for a high-scoring game, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling selection.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Benfica averages 3.2 goals per game with 80% Over 2.5 rate this season.

Lech Poznan concedes 2.2 goals per game and has a 40% BTTS rate, indicating defensive frailty.

Head-to-head clashes have averaged 5 goals across two matches, suggesting open games.

Benfica's attackers like Pavlidis and Cabral have high shot volumes and goal threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • The last two head-to-head matches averaged 5 goals, indicating a trend toward high-scoring encounters.
  • Recent Over 2.5 Goals rates of 80% for both teams over the season suggest a fast tempo and attacking openness conducive to multiple goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Benfica3.2
Avg goals scored
Lech Poznan2
Benfica0.8
Avg goals conceded
Lech Poznan2.2
Benfica80%
BTTS rate
Lech Poznan40%
Benfica80%
Over 2.5 goals
Lech Poznan80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 56% · edge +2.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Benfica's 80% Over 2.5 rate and Lech Poznan's defensive concessions create a fertile environment for multiple goals. While Lech Poznan's 40% BTTS rate is lower, Benfica's offensive control and previous high-scoring head-to-heads indicate goals from both sides are possible but not guaranteed.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Europa League fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Lech Poznan to WinBet365 guide price · model 20%
19
Check odds @ 19
Benfica to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
8
Check odds @ 8
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (+2.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Benfica and 80% for Lech Poznan, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Benfica

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 1D 1L
22 Oct 2026A Omonia Nicosia4-1
15 Oct 2026H Celtic4-1
16 Sep 2026A AC Milan2-0
27 Aug 2026A Aarhus3-1
20 Aug 2026H Aarhus3-1

Lech Poznan

DLLDW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 2L
22 Oct 2026H Sunderland1-1
15 Oct 2026H Bayer Leverkusen0-4
17 Sep 2026A Crystal Palace0-4
27 Aug 2026A FC Thun2-2
20 Aug 2026H FC Thun7-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 33% vs implied 18% · edge +15 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
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Lech Poznan to WinBet365 guide price · model 20%
19
Check odds @ 19
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.02
Check odds @ 1.02
Benfica to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
8
Check odds @ 8
Benfica's recent form shows 15 points with an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, reflecting consistent high-scoring performances. Lech Poznan's 5 points and similar Over 2.5 rate indicate they have also been involved in open matches, supporting expectations for a goal-rich contest.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Benfica Over 2.5
80%Lech Poznan Over 2.5
5H2H avg goals
The last two head-to-head matches averaged 5 goals, indicating a trend toward high-scoring encounters. Recent Over 2.5 Goals rates of 80% for both teams over the season suggest a fast tempo and attacking openness conducive to multiple goals.

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