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Sparta Praha crestSparta Praha
v
Bournemouth crestBournemouth

UEFA Europa League | Thu 05 Nov, 17:45

Sparta Praha v Bournemouth Stats

Data last updated: Wed 04 Nov 2026, 09:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This UEFA Europa League clash features Sparta Praha and Bournemouth, two teams with contrasting league positions and styles. Bournemouth, sitting third in their group, have shown disciplined defensive form but also aggressive pressing, while Sparta Praha, lower in the standings, rely on physicality and intensity to challenge opponents. Both sides have players prone to fouls and tactical fouling appears likely in this competitive fixture, suggesting a high card count. The match's stakes and tactical approaches set the stage for a physical encounter with frequent interruptions.

BT4Y best bet

Over 4.5 Cards

  • Bournemouth average 2.67 yellow cards per game, Sparta Praha 2.33, indicating a physical match.
  • Model estimates a 63.5% chance for over 4.5 cards, well above the 50% implied by .
  • Both teams have aggressive midfielders and defenders with high foul and card risk, such as B.
  • Recent form shows both teams involved in matches with multiple cards, supporting a high card count scenario.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 4.5 Cards with a 63.5% probability, reflecting both teams' aggressive defensive styles and high foul rates. Bournemouth's disciplined but physical approach, combined with Sparta Praha's intensity and players like Singhateh and Macek who accumulate cards, supports frequent cautions. The current imply only a 50% chance, offering a positive of 13.5%. This match's competitive nature and tactical fouling likelihood reinforce the expectation of multiple cards. No price warnings apply, making this a solid value bet with standard stake guidance.

Model Probability63.5% model chance vs 50% implied (+13.5 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance63.5% model chance vs 50% implied (+13.5 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge63.5% model chance vs 50% implied (+13.5 pts)
Strong positive
Player Card RiskHigh for key midfielders and defenders
Positive
Recent FormMatches with multiple cards
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physical and intense Europa League fixture where tactical fouling and defensive pressure will likely lead to multiple yellow cards. Both teams have shown tendencies to commit fouls, and key players with card risks increase the likelihood of surpassing 4.5 cards. The statistical and tactical evidence points to a match where discipline will be tested frequently, making Over 4.5 Cards a compelling selection.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Cards market

“This fixture's competitive stakes and player profiles suggest a high card count, as both sides rely on aggressive defending and tactical fouling to disrupt play.”

Key Data Signals

Over 4.5 Cards evidence

Bournemouth average 2.67 yellow cards per game, Sparta Praha 2.33, indicating a physical match.

Model estimates a 63.5% chance for over 4.5 cards, well above the 50% implied by .

Both teams have aggressive midfielders and defenders with high foul and card risk, such as B.

Recent form shows both teams involved in matches with multiple cards, supporting a high card count scenario.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 4.5 Cards notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have shown a tendency for matches with multiple goals and physical play, but the key trend here is the tempo and intensity leading to frequent fouls and cards.
  • This trend supports the expectation of a high card count rather than just goal-scoring patterns.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sparta Praha1.67
Avg goals scored
Bournemouth2.67
Sparta Praha1
Avg goals conceded
Bournemouth0.33
Sparta Praha67%
BTTS rate
Bournemouth33%
Sparta Praha33%
Over 2.5 goals
Bournemouth100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 59% · edge +7.9 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 85%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
While goals and BTTS rates vary, the focus here is on disciplinary trends. Sparta Praha and Bournemouth's matches often feature physical battles leading to fouls and cards rather than open high-scoring games, aligning with the expectation of multiple cautions rather than goal-heavy outcomes.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Europa League fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · Model 71% vs implied 60% · edge +10.6 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Sparta Praha Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 43%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Bournemouth to WinBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Bournemouth Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
The 63.5% for Over 4.5 Cards sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price (+13.5 pts). Bournemouth have the higher yellow-card average at 2.67, while Sparta Praha sit at 2.33.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sparta Praha

LDW
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
22 Oct 2026A Olympiakos Piraeus0-1
15 Oct 2026H Lillestrom1-1
16 Sep 2026A Ararat-Armenia4-1

Bournemouth

WWW
Last 53W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 0L
22 Oct 2026H AC Milan3-0
15 Oct 2026H Sturm Graz3-0
17 Sep 2026A Real Sociedad2-1
Best odds for this sectionSparta Praha Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
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Bournemouth to WinBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Bournemouth Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 48%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Sparta Praha to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 20%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Recent matches for both teams show a pattern of multiple cards, with Bournemouth's games consistently featuring high foul counts and Sparta Praha's matches also marked by physicality. This recent form data supports the likelihood of surpassing 4.5 cards in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Sparta Praha Over 2.5
100%Bournemouth Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have shown a tendency for matches with multiple goals and physical play, but the key trend here is the tempo and intensity leading to frequent fouls and cards. This trend supports the expectation of a high card count rather than just goal-scoring patterns.

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