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Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace
v
1899 Hoffenheim crest1899 Hoffenheim

UEFA Europa League | Thu 05 Nov, 17:45

Crystal Palace v 1899 Hoffenheim Stats

Data last updated: Wed 04 Nov 2026, 09:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This UEFA Europa League clash features Crystal Palace and 1899 Hoffenheim, two teams with contrasting attacking styles. Crystal Palace have shown a strong scoring tendency recently, averaging 2.67 goals per game with a perfect 100% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Hoffenheim, while slightly less prolific, still average 1.67 goals per game and have a history of open play. Both sides have defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 1.67 goals per game each, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring encounter. The match carries importance for group standings, adding competitive edge and urgency to their attacking intent.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Crystal Palace have a 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches, indicating consistent high scoring.
  • 1899 Hoffenheim average 18.33 shots per game, showing offensive activity that can increase goal chances.
  • Both teams concede 1.67 goals per game, suggesting defensive frailties that could lead to more goals.
  • Crystal Palace's attackers E. Mateta have high shots on target rates, increasing scoring potential.
  • Kramarić contribute significantly to attacking threat with shots and key passes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a strong value bet with a 58% chance versus an implied market chance of 43.5%, yielding a 14.5% . Crystal Palace's recent matches all exceeded 2.5 goals, and Hoffenheim's attacking volume and defensive concessions support a high-scoring game. The combination of prolific shooting from key forwards and mutual defensive vulnerabilities underpins the likelihood of at least four goals. is high at 74%, reflecting consistent data signals without notable data limitations.

Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals Rate100% recent matches
Strong positive
Hoffenheim Shots per Game18.33 average
Positive
Goals Conceded per Game Both Teams1.67 each
Positive
Model Chance vs Market Implied Chance58% model chance vs 43.5% implied (+14.5 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking match as both Crystal Palace and Hoffenheim have shown tendencies for high-scoring games recently. Crystal Palace's perfect over 2.5 goals record and Hoffenheim's offensive shot volume suggest a lively encounter with multiple goal opportunities. The data supports a bet on Over 3.5 Goals, reflecting the attacking strengths and defensive vulnerabilities of both sides in this Europa League fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking potential and match tempo

“This fixture promises a dynamic offensive display from both teams, with Crystal Palace's consistent scoring and Hoffenheim's shot volume creating fertile ground for a high-scoring match.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Crystal Palace have a 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches, indicating consistent high scoring.

1899 Hoffenheim average 18.33 shots per game, showing offensive activity that can increase goal chances.

Both teams concede 1.67 goals per game, suggesting defensive frailties that could lead to more goals.

Crystal Palace's attackers E. Mateta have high shots on target rates, increasing scoring potential.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Recent matches for both teams show a strong trend towards over 2.5 goals, with Crystal Palace at 100% and Hoffenheim at 67% in their last fixtures.
  • This trend suggests a high-tempo game with open defenses and multiple goal chances, supporting an expectation of at least three goals in this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Crystal Palace2.67
Avg goals scored
1899 Hoffenheim1.67
Crystal Palace1.67
Avg goals conceded
1899 Hoffenheim1.67
Crystal Palace67%
BTTS rate
1899 Hoffenheim33%
Crystal Palace100%
Over 2.5 goals
1899 Hoffenheim67%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 44% · edge +14.5 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both teams have shown goal-scoring ability and defensive vulnerabilities, with Crystal Palace scoring 2.67 and conceding 1.67 goals per game, while Hoffenheim averages 1.67 goals for and against. Crystal Palace's 67% BTTS rate and Hoffenheim's 33% indicate a mixed but offensively open contest, favoring multiple goals.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more UEFA Europa League analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 78% vs implied 65% · edge +12.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Crystal Palace Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Crystal Palace to WinBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
1899 Hoffenheim Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 43.5% implied by the current price (+14.5 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Crystal Palace and 67% for 1899 Hoffenheim, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Crystal Palace

DLW
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
22 Oct 2026A Beşiktaş2-2
15 Oct 2026A Lyon2-3
17 Sep 2026H Lech Poznan4-0

1899 Hoffenheim

WLL
Last 51W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 2L
22 Oct 2026H Lyon3-0
15 Oct 2026H Beşiktaş2-3
17 Sep 2026A OFI0-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 81% vs implied 80% · edge +1.1 pts
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Crystal Palace Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Crystal Palace to WinBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
1899 Hoffenheim Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
1899 Hoffenheim to WinBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
4
Check odds @ 4
Crystal Palace's recent form features a perfect 100% over 2.5 goals rate, scoring 2.67 goals per game, indicating consistent high-scoring matches. Hoffenheim's 67% over 2.5 rate and 1.67 goals per game show a tendency for open games, supporting the expectation of a high-scoring encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Crystal Palace Over 2.5
67%1899 Hoffenheim Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Recent matches for both teams show a strong trend towards over 2.5 goals, with Crystal Palace at 100% and Hoffenheim at 67% in their last fixtures. This trend suggests a high-tempo game with open defenses and multiple goal chances, supporting an expectation of at least three goals in this match.

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