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Bayer Leverkusen crestBayer Leverkusen
v
Marseille crestMarseille

UEFA Europa League | Thu 05 Nov, 20:00

Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille Stats

Data last updated: Wed 04 Nov 2026, 10:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bayer Leverkusen hosts Marseille in a UEFA Europa League clash where Leverkusen arrives in strong form with nine points and a solid defensive record, having conceded no goals recently. Marseille, struggling with zero points and a leaky defense conceding two goals per game, face a tough challenge. Leverkusen's attacking threat is notable but controlled, while Marseille's offense has been limited. This match shapes up as a tactical battle with Leverkusen likely to control possession and limit Marseille's chances, setting the stage for a low-scoring encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Leverkusen has conceded zero goals in recent matches, indicating strong defensive form.
  • Marseille has scored only 0.33 goals per game and conceded 2, showing offensive struggles.
  • Both teams have a low over 2.5 goals rate of 33%, supporting a low-scoring game.
  • Leverkusen averages 24 shots per game but converts few, suggesting controlled attacking.
  • Marseille averages fewer shots and shots on target, limiting goal-scoring opportunities.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 61.1% chance, reflecting strong defensive displays from Bayer Leverkusen and Marseille's limited attacking output. Leverkusen's zero goals conceded recently and Marseille's low scoring rate underpin this prediction. The at 2.75 offer positive value, as the implied chance is only 36.4%. This suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of a tight, low-scoring match, supported by both teams' recent form and shot statistics. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Defensive solidityLeverkusen conceded 0 goals recently
Strong positive
Low scoring rateMarseille averages 0.33 goals per game
Strong positive
Shots and chancesLeverkusen high shots but low conversion
Positive
Market oddsOdds imply only 36.4% chance, model 61.1%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sound choice given Bayer Leverkusen's recent defensive resilience and Marseille's offensive difficulties. The tactical setup suggests a controlled game with limited clear-cut chances, making a low-scoring outcome the most probable scenario based on current form and team profiles.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and defensive balance

“This fixture is likely to be a tactical chess match with Bayer Leverkusen's disciplined defense and Marseille's struggling attack setting the tone for a low-scoring game.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Leverkusen has conceded zero goals in recent matches, indicating strong defensive form.

Marseille has scored only 0.33 goals per game and conceded 2, showing offensive struggles.

Leverkusen averages 24 shots per game but converts few, suggesting controlled attacking.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Recent trends over the last five matches show both teams have only a 33% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a pattern of low-scoring affairs.
  • The average goals in their single head-to-head meeting was 3, but current form and defensive focus suggest a slower tempo and fewer goals this time around.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bayer Leverkusen2.67
Avg goals scored
Marseille0.33
Bayer Leverkusen0
Avg goals conceded
Marseille2
Bayer Leverkusen0%
BTTS rate
Marseille33%
Bayer Leverkusen33%
Over 2.5 goals
Marseille33%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 60%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 25%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have low scoring rates and modest BTTS percentages, with Leverkusen at 0% BTTS and Marseille at 33%. This indicates a controlled goals environment where either team failing to score is common, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals selection and a likely match with few clear goal opportunities.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more UEFA Europa League analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionMarseille Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.15
Check odds @ 4.15
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Bayer Leverkusen to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Bayer Leverkusen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Marseille to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
7
Check odds @ 7
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
The 51.4% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 36.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 33% for Bayer Leverkusen and 33% for Marseille, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bayer Leverkusen

WWW
Last 53W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 0L
22 Oct 2026A OFI2-0
15 Oct 2026A Lech Poznan4-0
16 Sep 2026H Celje2-0

Marseille

LLL
Last 50W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 3L
22 Oct 2026A Sturm Graz0-1
15 Oct 2026H Olympiakos Piraeus0-1
17 Sep 2026A Beşiktaş1-4
Best odds for this sectionMarseille Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.15
Check odds @ 4.15
Load more odds for this section
Bayer Leverkusen to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 45%
3
Check odds @ 3
Bayer Leverkusen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Marseille to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
7
Check odds @ 7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Leverkusen's recent form is strong with 9 points and zero goals conceded, highlighting defensive robustness. Marseille's form is poor with no points and 2 goals conceded per game, reflecting defensive vulnerabilities but limited offensive threat. Both teams have a low rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals prediction based on current momentum.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Bayer Leverkusen Over 2.5
33%Marseille Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Recent trends over the last five matches show both teams have only a 33% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a pattern of low-scoring affairs. The average goals in their single head-to-head meeting was 3, but current form and defensive focus suggest a slower tempo and fewer goals this time around.

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