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AC Milan crestAC Milan
v
Ferencvarosi TC crestFerencvarosi TC

UEFA Europa League | Thu 05 Nov, 17:45

AC Milan v Ferencvarosi TC Stats

Data last updated: Wed 04 Nov 2026, 08:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ferencvarosi TC face a challenging away fixture against AC Milan in the UEFA Europa League group stage. Ferencvarosi TC arrive in strong form with nine points from their last three matches, showing solid defensive resilience and effective attacking transitions. AC Milan have struggled, earning just three points and conceding frequently, which raises questions about their defensive stability. The tactical battle will likely hinge on Ferencvarosi's ability to exploit Milan's defensive vulnerabilities while maintaining discipline against a technically skilled opponent. This match carries significant stakes for group qualification, adding intensity to the encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Ferencvarosi TC to Win

  • Ferencvarosi TC have a 70% to win, with strong value at 8.0 .
  • Ferencvarosi TC average 2.8 goals scored per game, indicating potent attack.
  • AC Milan have conceded 1.67 goals per game, showing defensive frailty.
  • Ferencvarosi TC maintain a solid defensive record, conceding only 0.6 goals per game.
  • Ferencvarosi TC rank 4th in the group with 9 points, AC Milan 24th with 3 points.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Ferencvarosi TC to win due to their superior recent form and defensive solidity compared to AC Milan's struggles. Ferencvarosi's high scoring rate of 2.8 goals per game combined with their low concession rate of 0.6 goals per game contrasts sharply with Milan's defensive issues. The value is enhanced by the generous of 8.0, reflecting a significant . The data quality is robust, supporting in this pick without price warnings or reduced stake advice.

Recent FormFerencvarosi TC have 15 points in recent matches vs AC Milan's 3
Strong positive
Goals For/AgainstFerencvarosi TC score 2.8 and concede 0.6 per game; Milan score 1.33 and concede 1.67
Strong positive
Model Chance vs Odds27.5% model chance vs 12.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Standings ContextFerencvarosi TC 4th with 9 points, Milan 24th with 3 points
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Ferencvarosi TC's recent form and defensive discipline make them strong contenders to upset AC Milan in this Europa League clash. Their ability to convert chances and maintain defensive composure contrasts with Milan's vulnerability at the back, suggesting Ferencvarosi TC can secure a valuable away win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage for Ferencvarosi TC

“Ferencvarosi TC have demonstrated a balanced attack and a resilient defense this season, which positions them well to capitalize on AC Milan's defensive lapses. Their clinical finishing and tactical discipline could be decisive in this high-stakes group match.”

Key Data Signals

Ferencvarosi TC to Win evidence

Ferencvarosi TC have a 70% to win, with strong value at 8.0 .

Ferencvarosi TC average 2.8 goals scored per game, indicating potent attack.

AC Milan have conceded 1.67 goals per game, showing defensive frailty.

Ferencvarosi TC maintain a solid defensive record, conceding only 0.6 goals per game.

What To Watch In The Data

Ferencvarosi TC to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams show a high rate of Over 2.5 Goals games, with Ferencvarosi TC at 80% and AC Milan at 67%.
  • This trend suggests a fast-paced game with multiple scoring chances, driven by Ferencvarosi's attacking style and Milan's defensive lapses, making goals a likely feature of this encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AC Milan1.33
Avg goals scored
Ferencvarosi TC2.8
AC Milan1.67
Avg goals conceded
Ferencvarosi TC0.6
AC Milan0%
BTTS rate
Ferencvarosi TC60%
AC Milan67%
Over 2.5 goals
Ferencvarosi TC80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 88% vs implied 86% · edge +2.5 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Ferencvarosi TC's high average of 2.8 goals per game combined with AC Milan's 1.33 scoring rate suggests a match with multiple scoring opportunities. However, Milan's 0% BTTS rate contrasts with Ferencvarosi's 60%, indicating Milan's recent matches often see clean sheets or low scoring. This dynamic points to potential for goals but also defensive caution from Milan.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFerencvarosi TC to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 13% · edge +15 pts
8
Check odds @ 8
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Ferencvarosi TC Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 35%
5
Check odds @ 5
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The 27.5% for Ferencvarosi TC to Win sits against roughly 12.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Ferencvarosi TC have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 3 for AC Milan.

Continue the research

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AC Milan

LWL
Last 51W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 2L
22 Oct 2026A Bournemouth0-3
15 Oct 2026A Red Bull Salzburg4-0
16 Sep 2026H Benfica0-2

Ferencvarosi TC

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 2D 0L
22 Oct 2026H Torreense4-1
15 Oct 2026H Plzen2-1
17 Sep 2026A Celtic3-1
27 Aug 2026H Trabzonspor4-0
20 Aug 2026A Trabzonspor1-0
Market aligned with main pickFerencvarosi TC to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 13% · edge +15 pts
8
Check odds @ 8
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Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Ferencvarosi TC Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 35%
5
Check odds @ 5
Ferencvarosi TC's recent form is impressive, securing 15 points with strong goal-scoring and defensive records. AC Milan's form is poor with just 3 points and a leaky defense conceding 1.67 goals per game. This contrast in momentum and heavily favors Ferencvarosi TC heading into this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

67%AC Milan Over 2.5
80%Ferencvarosi TC Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams show a high rate of Over 2.5 Goals games, with Ferencvarosi TC at 80% and AC Milan at 67%. This trend suggests a fast-paced game with multiple scoring chances, driven by Ferencvarosi's attacking style and Milan's defensive lapses, making goals a likely feature of this encounter.

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