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Celta Vigo crestCelta Vigo
v
Union St. Gilloise crestUnion St. Gilloise

UEFA Europa League | Thu 05 Nov, 20:00

Celta Vigo v Union St. Gilloise Stats

Data last updated: Wed 04 Nov 2026, 08:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This UEFA Europa League clash features Celta Vigo hosting Union St. Gilloise, with both sides seeking crucial points to enhance their group standing. Celta Vigo have struggled to find consistent form, scoring just one goal in recent matches and conceding more than one per game. Gilloise arrive with stronger momentum, averaging over two and a half goals per game and maintaining a solid defensive record. The tactical setup suggests Union St. Gilloise's attacking efficiency and defensive discipline could challenge Celta Vigo's home advantage in this pivotal fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Union St. Gilloise to Win

  • Gilloise holds a 70% to win, offering strong value at 3.1 .
  • Gilloise averages 22.33 shots per game with 11 on target, indicating high offensive pressure.
  • Celta Vigo concedes 1.33 goals per game, showing defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Gilloise ranks 6th in the group with 7 points, outperforming Celta Vigo's 25th place and 3 points.
  • Recent form favors Union St. Gilloise with 7 points and a lower goals conceded rate (0.33 per game).

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Union St. Gilloise to win due to their superior recent form, efficient attack, and strong defensive record. Their high volume of shots on target and lower goals conceded per game contrast with Celta Vigo's struggles in front of goal and defensive lapses. The of 3.1 offer significant value against the implied chance of 32.3%, supported by Union St. Gilloise's tactical discipline and momentum in the Europa League group stage. This combination makes the away win a compelling selection with a 70% level.

Recent formUnion St. Gilloise leads with 7 points vs. Celta Vigo's 3
Strong positive
Shots on targetUnion St. Gilloise averages 11 SOT per game vs. 3.67 for Celta Vigo
Strong positive
Goals concededUnion St. Gilloise concedes 0.33 goals per game vs. 1.33 for Celta Vigo
Strong positive
Market value edge47.3% model chance vs 32.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Gilloise's clinical finishing and disciplined defense provide a tactical edge over Celta Vigo, who have struggled to convert chances and maintain defensive stability. The data-driven in Union St. Gilloise's form and efficiency underpins the away win selection as the most logical outcome in this Europa League encounter.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and statistical advantage of Union St. Gilloise

“Gilloise's high shot volume and defensive resilience make them a formidable opponent, especially given Celta Vigo's recent scoring difficulties. Their ability to capitalize on chances while limiting opposition opportunities is key to their predicted success.”

Key Data Signals

Union St. Gilloise to Win evidence

Gilloise holds a 70% to win, offering strong value at 3.1 .

Gilloise averages 22.33 shots per game with 11 on target, indicating high offensive pressure.

Celta Vigo concedes 1.33 goals per game, showing defensive vulnerabilities.

Gilloise ranks 6th in the group with 7 points, outperforming Celta Vigo's 25th place and 3 points.

What To Watch In The Data

Union St. Gilloise to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have a 67% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating an open tempo and attacking intent.
  • Gilloise's efficient finishing and defensive discipline suggest they can capitalize on this trend, potentially leading to a high-scoring yet controlled encounter favoring the away side.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Celta Vigo1
Avg goals scored
Union St. Gilloise2.67
Celta Vigo1.33
Avg goals conceded
Union St. Gilloise0.33
Celta Vigo67%
BTTS rate
Union St. Gilloise33%
Celta Vigo67%
Over 2.5 goals
Union St. Gilloise67%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 85% vs implied 82% · edge +3 pts
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 37%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have a 67% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, but Union St. Gilloise's lower BTTS rate (33%) compared to Celta Vigo's 67% indicates a more controlled defensive approach. This suggests that while goals are likely, Union St. Gilloise may limit Celta Vigo's scoring chances, favoring a focused attacking display.

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Useful next reads

more UEFA Europa League analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickUnion St. Gilloise to WinBetUK guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Union St. Gilloise Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
The 47.3% for Union St. Gilloise to Win sits against roughly 32.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Gilloise to Win sits against roughly 32% implied by the current price. Gilloise have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 3 for Celta Vigo.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Celta Vigo

WLL
Last 51W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 2L
22 Oct 2026A Celtic2-1
15 Oct 2026H Juventus1-2
16 Sep 2026A Omonia Nicosia0-1

Union St. Gilloise

WDW
Last 52W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 0L
22 Oct 2026H Hapoel Beer Sheva4-0
15 Oct 2026H Real Sociedad1-1
17 Sep 2026A Plzen3-0
Market aligned with main pickUnion St. Gilloise to WinBetUK guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Union St. Gilloise Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Gilloise's recent form is strong, accumulating 7 points with a solid defensive record conceding only 0.33 goals per game. In contrast, Celta Vigo has managed just 3 points and scored only once recently, highlighting a clear momentum advantage for the visitors heading into this match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

67%Celta Vigo Over 2.5
67%Union St. Gilloise Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have a 67% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating an open tempo and attacking intent. Gilloise's efficient finishing and defensive discipline suggest they can capitalize on this trend, potentially leading to a high-scoring yet controlled encounter favoring the away side.

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