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Willem II crestWillem II
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PEC Zwolle crestPEC Zwolle

Eredivisie | Fri 06 Nov, 19:00

Willem II v PEC Zwolle Stats

Data last updated: Thu 05 Nov 2026, 08:04 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

PEC Zwolle enters this Eredivisie clash with Willem II on the back of a solid recent run, having collected 7 points while conceding just 1.2 goals per game. Willem II struggles near the bottom of the table with only 2 points and a leaky defense conceding 4 goals per match. Zwolle's more efficient attack and defensive stability give them a tactical edge, while Willem II's poor form and defensive frailties make them vulnerable at home. This match presents a clear opportunity for Zwolle to capitalize on their momentum and secure an away victory.

BT4Y best bet

PEC Zwolle to Win

  • PEC Zwolle has earned 11 points this season versus Willem II's 2, showing stronger overall form.
  • Willem II concedes 4 goals per game, indicating defensive weaknesses.
  • PEC Zwolle averages 15 shots and 5.2 corners per match, reflecting attacking intent.
  • Willem II's recent matches have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting open games.
  • PEC Zwolle's top attackers like K. Namli contribute significantly to goal threat and chance creation.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 70% chance for PEC Zwolle to win, reflecting their superior recent form and defensive solidity compared to Willem II's struggles. Zwolle's higher shot volume and better defensive record underpin this . The of 2.3 offer positive value with a 26.5% edge, making this a strong data-supported selection. The model notes no data limitations, reinforcing the reliability of this forecast. This pick aligns well with the tactical and statistical profile of both teams this season.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance58.5% model chance vs 43.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge58.5% model chance vs 43.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Defensive FormZwolle concedes 1.2 vs Willem II 4.0 goals per game
Strong positive
Shot VolumeZwolle averages 15 shots per game vs Willem II 10.6
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

PEC Zwolle's recent defensive resilience and superior attacking metrics make them the logical choice to win this fixture. Willem II's defensive vulnerabilities and poor form provide Zwolle with clear tactical opportunities to control the game and secure the three points. The data strongly supports an away win in this matchup.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“PEC Zwolle's balanced attack and solid defense contrast sharply with Willem II's struggles, making them the favored side to claim victory in this contest.”

Key Data Signals

PEC Zwolle to Win evidence

PEC Zwolle has earned 11 points this season versus Willem II's 2, showing stronger overall form.

Willem II concedes 4 goals per game, indicating defensive weaknesses.

PEC Zwolle averages 15 shots and 5.2 corners per match, reflecting attacking intent.

Willem II's recent matches have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting open games.

What To Watch In The Data

PEC Zwolle to Win notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.4, indicating moderately open matches.
  • Willem II's high Over 2.5 Goals rate this season suggests a tendency for games with multiple goals, but Zwolle's defensive discipline may temper the overall scoring, pointing to a balanced tempo with chances for both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Willem II0.8
Avg goals scored
PEC Zwolle1.2
Willem II4
Avg goals conceded
PEC Zwolle1.2
Willem II60%
BTTS rate
PEC Zwolle40%
Willem II80%
Over 2.5 goals
PEC Zwolle40%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 79% vs implied 86% · edge -6.2 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Willem II's matches have featured an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating open, high-scoring games, while PEC Zwolle's 40% rate suggests more controlled encounters. Both teams have moderate BTTS rates, but Zwolle's defensive strength may limit goals conceded, making a competitive but not overly high-scoring game likely.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPEC Zwolle to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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PEC Zwolle Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 58.5% for PEC Zwolle to Win sits against roughly 43.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). PEC Zwolle have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 0 for Willem II.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Willem II

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 8L
31 Oct 2026A PSV Eindhoven0-7
24 Oct 2026H Cambuur1-6
17 Oct 2026A Sparta Rotterdam2-3
11 Oct 2026A Utrecht1-3
19 Sep 2026H Fortuna Sittard0-1

PEC Zwolle

WDWLL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
01 Nov 2026H ADO Den Haag1-0
24 Oct 2026A Utrecht1-1
18 Oct 2026H GO Ahead Eagles4-1
11 Oct 2026H Cambuur0-1
18 Sep 2026A Groningen0-3
Market aligned with main pickPEC Zwolle to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
PEC Zwolle Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
PEC Zwolle's recent form shows 7 points gained with a strong defensive record conceding only 1.2 goals per game, contrasting sharply with Willem II's 0 points and 4 goals conceded per match. This form disparity underlines Zwolle's momentum and defensive organization as key factors for their expected victory.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Willem II Over 2.5
40%PEC Zwolle Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.4, indicating moderately open matches. Willem II's high Over 2.5 Goals rate this season suggests a tendency for games with multiple goals, but Zwolle's defensive discipline may temper the overall scoring, pointing to a balanced tempo with chances for both sides.

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