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Lillestrom crestLillestrom
v
Plzen crestPlzen

UEFA Europa League | Thu 05 Nov, 17:45

Lillestrom v Plzen Stats

Data last updated: Wed 04 Nov 2026, 09:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lillestrom faces Plzen in a UEFA Europa League clash where both teams have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Lillestrom has struggled to score consistently, averaging 0.8 goals per game, while conceding twice per match. Plzen, despite conceding 2.2 goals on average, boasts a stronger attack with 1.4 goals per game and a perfect 100% rate for matches exceeding 2.5 goals. The fixture promises an open contest with both sides needing points, suggesting a high-tempo game with multiple scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Plzen has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, indicating frequent high-scoring games.
  • Lillestrom concedes an average of 2 goals per match, highlighting defensive frailties.
  • Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, supporting the likelihood of goals at both ends.
  • Plzen averages 17.2 shots per game with 6.2 on target, showing offensive pressure.
  • Lillestrom's attacker T. Lehne Olsen averages 6.52 shots per 90 minutes, posing a significant goal threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 3.5 Goals with a 58% chance, well above the implied 42% from current , offering a 16% . Plzen's perfect Over 2.5 Goals record and high shot volume, combined with Lillestrom's defensive concessions, underpin the expectation of a high-scoring match. Key attacking players like T. Lehne Olsen and L. Červ contribute significant shot and goal threat metrics, reinforcing the likelihood of multiple goals. The data quality is solid, supporting in this selection.

Plzen Over 2.5 Goals Rate100%
Strong positive
Lillestrom Goals Against Average2.0 per game
Strong positive
Shot Volume (Plzen)17.2 shots per game
Positive
T. Lehne Olsen Shots per 906.52 shots
Positive
Model Confidence76%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as Plzen's offensive prowess meets Lillestrom's defensive vulnerabilities. The high volume of shots and goal threats on both sides suggests multiple goals, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice based on tactical openness and recent scoring trends.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking dynamics and goal potential

“This fixture features two teams with contrasting defensive records but strong attacking intent, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter. Plzen's relentless shot volume and Lillestrom's key attackers create a scenario ripe for goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Plzen has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, indicating frequent high-scoring games.

Lillestrom concedes an average of 2 goals per match, highlighting defensive frailties.

Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, supporting the likelihood of goals at both ends.

Plzen averages 17.2 shots per game with 6.2 on target, showing offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last five matches, Plzen has maintained a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, while Lillestrom holds a 60% rate.
  • The average goals in their recent games suggest a fast tempo and attacking style, with defensive gaps likely to be exploited.
  • These trends indicate a strong chance of exceeding 2.5 goals, supporting the Over 3.5 Goals selection.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lillestrom0.8
Avg goals scored
Plzen1.4
Lillestrom2
Avg goals conceded
Plzen2.2
Lillestrom60%
BTTS rate
Plzen60%
Lillestrom60%
Over 2.5 goals
Plzen100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, suggesting goals at both ends are common. Plzen's perfect Over 2.5 Goals rate and Lillestrom's defensive concessions support a scenario with multiple goals. The combination of attacking intent and defensive lapses points to a match likely featuring several scoring moments.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Europa League fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 64% · edge +14.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Lillestrom to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Lillestrom Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Plzen Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The 57% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Lillestrom and 100% for Plzen, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lillestrom

LDLWD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 2L
22 Oct 2026H Real Sociedad0-6
15 Oct 2026A Sparta Praha1-1
17 Sep 2026H Torreense1-2
27 Aug 2026H Egnatia Rrogozhinë2-1
20 Aug 2026A Egnatia Rrogozhinë0-0

Plzen

LLLWL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 4L
22 Oct 2026H Levski Sofia1-2
15 Oct 2026A Ferencvarosi TC1-2
17 Sep 2026H Union St. Gilloise0-3
27 Aug 2026H FK Crvena Zvezda5-1
20 Aug 2026A FK Crvena Zvezda0-3
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Lillestrom to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Lillestrom Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Plzen Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Plzen to WinBetMGM guide price · model 36%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Recent form data shows Lillestrom scoring 0.8 goals per game and conceding 2, while Plzen scores 1.4 and concedes 2.2. Plzen's 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate contrasts with Lillestrom's 60%, indicating Plzen's matches consistently feature multiple goals. This form supports an expectation of a high-scoring game with offensive control from Plzen.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Lillestrom Over 2.5
100%Plzen Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Plzen has maintained a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, while Lillestrom holds a 60% rate. The average goals in their recent games suggest a fast tempo and attacking style, with defensive gaps likely to be exploited. These trends indicate a strong chance of exceeding 2.5 goals, supporting the Over 3.5 Goals selection.

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