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Levski Sofia crestLevski Sofia
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Jagiellonia crestJagiellonia

UEFA Europa League | Thu 05 Nov, 17:45

Levski Sofia v Jagiellonia Stats

Data last updated: Thu 05 Nov 2026, 09:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Levski Sofia hosts Jagiellonia Bialystok in a crucial Europa League clash where both teams seek to boost their knockout-stage hopes. Levski Sofia arrives unbeaten in six matches, showcasing strong defensive discipline with just 0.6 goals conceded per game and commanding possession averaging 61.6%. Jagiellonia, despite recent away struggles with four defeats in five, bring attacking momentum from three consecutive wins, with forwards Jesus Imaz and Nik Prelec scoring in successive matches. This contrast sets the stage for a competitive encounter with potential for multiple goals as Jagiellonia's defensive vulnerabilities meet Levski's attacking control.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Levski Sofia concedes only 0.6 goals per game in last 10 matches, showing defensive strength.
  • Jagiellonia concedes 1.7 goals per game and allows 15.6 shots on average, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Levski Sofia scored 9 goals in their current six-match unbeaten run, reflecting attacking form.
  • Jagiellonia's forwards Imaz and Prelec have scored in consecutive matches, adding away goal threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The Over 2.5 Goals pick aligns with Jagiellonia's defensive struggles conceding 1.7 goals per game and high shot volume allowed, combined with Levski Sofia's recent scoring form of nine goals in six unbeaten matches. Levski's possession control suggests sustained pressure, increasing scoring chances. Although Levski's strong defense could limit goals, Jagiellonia's attacking resurgence and defensive lapses create a coherent case for a higher-scoring game. The model's 63% chance and positive of 7.4% support this selection as a balanced, data-driven choice.

Levski Sofia Defensive Record0.6 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Jagiellonia Defensive Vulnerability1.7 goals conceded per game, 15.6 shots allowed
Strong positive
Levski Sofia Attacking Form9 goals in last 6 matches
Positive
Jagiellonia Attacking ThreatImaz and Prelec scored in consecutive matches
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Levski Sofia's strong home form and possession control position them well to create scoring opportunities, while Jagiellonia's recent attacking revival suggests they will contribute goals despite defensive weaknesses. This combination makes Over 2.5 Goals a compelling choice, reflecting both tactical control and attacking momentum from both sides.

Main risk

Their defensive record offers particular cause for concern.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match tempo and goal potential

“The tactical contrast between Levski's possession control and Jagiellonia's defensive fragility sets up a high-tempo game with multiple goal-scoring chances, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Levski Sofia concedes only 0.6 goals per game in last 10 matches, showing defensive strength.

Jagiellonia concedes 1.7 goals per game and allows 15.6 shots on average, indicating defensive frailty.

Levski Sofia scored 9 goals in their current six-match unbeaten run, reflecting attacking form.

Jagiellonia's forwards Imaz and Prelec have scored in consecutive matches, adding away goal threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In recent matches and limited head-to-head context, Over 2.5 Goals has been frequent due to Jagiellonia's defensive openness and Levski's attacking consistency.
  • The last six matches show a trend toward higher tempo and goal volume, supporting the expectation of at least three goals in this encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Levski Sofia1
Avg goals scored
Jagiellonia2
Levski Sofia1
Avg goals conceded
Jagiellonia1.4
Levski Sofia67%
BTTS rate
Jagiellonia60%
Levski Sofia33%
Over 2.5 goals
Jagiellonia100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 52% · edge +10.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 81%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 41%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Both teams have shown goal-scoring ability recently, with Levski scoring nine times in six matches and Jagiellonia's forwards scoring in consecutive games. Jagiellonia's defensive record of conceding 1.7 goals per game and allowing high shot volumes supports the likelihood of goals from both sides, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals scenario.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 52% · edge +10.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Jagiellonia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Jagiellonia to WinBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 22%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Levski Sofia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
The 63% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 52.4% implied by the current price (+10.6 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 33% for Levski Sofia and 100% for Jagiellonia, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Europa League fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Levski Sofia v Jagielloniacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Levski Sofia

WDL
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
22 Oct 2026A Plzen2-1
15 Oct 2026A NEC Nijmegen1-1
17 Sep 2026H Red Bull Salzburg0-1

Jagiellonia

LWLWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 2L
22 Oct 2026H Anderlecht0-3
15 Oct 2026H Ararat-Armenia3-1
16 Sep 2026A Olympiakos Piraeus1-2
27 Aug 2026A FC Iberia 19992-1
20 Aug 2026H FC Iberia 19994-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Jagiellonia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Jagiellonia to WinBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
DrawBetfred guide price · model 22%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Levski Sofia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Levski Sofia to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2
Check odds @ 2
Levski Sofia is unbeaten in six matches, scoring nine goals and conceding few, reflecting strong momentum and defensive stability. Jagiellonia has won three consecutive matches, showing improved attacking form despite defensive lapses. This contrasting recent form supports a dynamic game with multiple goals, consistent with the Over 2.5 Goals pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Levski Sofia Over 2.5
100%Jagiellonia Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
In recent matches and limited head-to-head context, Over 2.5 Goals has been frequent due to Jagiellonia's defensive openness and Levski's attacking consistency. The last six matches show a trend toward higher tempo and goal volume, supporting the expectation of at least three goals in this encounter.

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