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Botafogo SP crestBotafogo SP
v
Londrina crestLondrina

Serie B | Thu 05 Nov, 22:30

Botafogo SP v Londrina Stats

Data last updated: Wed 04 Nov 2026, 07:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Botafogo SP hosts Londrina in a Serie B clash where Botafogo SP's recent form and defensive solidity stand out. With 13 points from recent matches and conceding just 0.4 goals per game, Botafogo SP aims to capitalize on their home advantage against a Londrina side struggling with only 4 recent points and a leaky defense conceding 1.8 goals per match. Londrina's attacking threat is notable but inconsistent, making this a contest where Botafogo SP's tactical discipline and home momentum could prove decisive.

BT4Y best bet

Botafogo SP to Win

  • Botafogo SP has earned 13 points recently, showing strong form compared to Londrina's 4 points.
  • Botafogo SP concedes just 0.4 goals per game, indicating solid defensive organization.
  • Londrina averages 1.8 goals conceded per match, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Botafogo SP averages 6.6 corners per game, suggesting territorial control and attacking pressure.
  • Londrina's BTTS rate is 80%, but Botafogo SP's defensive record suggests a low-scoring match likely.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 74% chance for Botafogo SP to win, reflecting their superior recent form and defensive strength. Botafogo SP's ability to limit goals conceded to 0.4 per game contrasts sharply with Londrina's defensive struggles, conceding 1.8 per match. Despite Londrina's higher shot volume, Botafogo SP's home advantage and efficient defense create a strong probability for victory. The price offers positive value with a 16.2% edge, supporting a standard stake approach for this selection.

Recent FormBotafogo SP's 13 points vs Londrina's 4
Strong positive
Defensive Strength0.4 goals conceded per game by Botafogo SP
Strong positive
Price Value Edge72.8% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Londrina Defensive Weakness1.8 goals conceded per game
Positive
Shot VolumeLondrina averages more shots but less defensive solidity
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Botafogo SP's recent defensive resilience and home form make them the logical choice for victory. Their ability to suppress goals and accumulate points contrasts with Londrina's struggles, providing a tactical and statistical foundation for backing Botafogo SP to win this Serie B fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Botafogo SP's disciplined defense and home momentum create a compelling case for victory, especially against a Londrina side vulnerable at the back despite their attacking intent.”

Key Data Signals

Botafogo SP to Win evidence

Botafogo SP has earned 13 points recently, showing strong form compared to Londrina's 4 points.

Botafogo SP concedes just 0.4 goals per game, indicating solid defensive organization.

Londrina averages 1.8 goals conceded per match, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Botafogo SP averages 6.6 corners per game, suggesting territorial control and attacking pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Botafogo SP to Win notes

  • Over the last seven meetings, the average goals scored is 1.57, indicating generally low-scoring encounters.
  • This trend supports a cautious game tempo with limited goal-scoring opportunities, aligning with Botafogo SP's defensive strengths and Londrina's attacking inconsistencies.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Botafogo SP1.4
Avg goals scored
Londrina1.2
Botafogo SP0.4
Avg goals conceded
Londrina1.8
Botafogo SP40%
BTTS rate
Londrina80%
Botafogo SP20%
Over 2.5 goals
Londrina80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The goal context suggests a controlled scoring environment, with Botafogo SP's low concession rate contrasting Londrina's higher BTTS frequency. This indicates a likely low-scoring game with Botafogo SP managing to keep Londrina's attack in check.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBotafogo SP to WinBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Botafogo SP Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The 72.8% for Botafogo SP to Win sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Botafogo SP have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 4 for Londrina.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Botafogo SP

DWWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
31 Oct 2026H Sport Recife1-1
24 Oct 2026A Avai2-0
18 Oct 2026A CRB1-0
13 Oct 2026H Ceara1-0
07 Oct 2026A Operario-PR2-1

Londrina

LLWDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
01 Nov 2026H America Mineiro1-3
24 Oct 2026A CRB1-2
20 Oct 2026H Cuiaba1-0
13 Oct 2026A Athletic Club2-2
07 Oct 2026A Avai1-2
Market aligned with main pickBotafogo SP to WinBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Botafogo SP Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Botafogo SP's recent form is markedly superior, accumulating 13 points with a tight defense conceding just 0.4 goals per game. Londrina's form is weaker, with only 4 points and defensive frailties, reinforcing Botafogo SP's status as favorites in this encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Botafogo SP Over 2.5
80%Londrina Over 2.5
1.57H2H avg goals
Over the last seven meetings, the average goals scored is 1.57, indicating generally low-scoring encounters. This trend supports a cautious game tempo with limited goal-scoring opportunities, aligning with Botafogo SP's defensive strengths and Londrina's attacking inconsistencies.

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