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Gaziantep FK crestGaziantep FK
v
Kasımpaşa crestKasımpaşa

Süper Lig | Fri 06 Nov, 17:00

Gaziantep FK v Kasımpaşa Stats

Data last updated: Thu 05 Nov 2026, 08:08 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Kasımpaşa enters this Süper Lig clash in stronger form and higher league position compared to Gaziantep FK, who have struggled to find consistency. Kasımpaşa's recent performances show improved attacking output and defensive solidity, while Gaziantep FK have conceded heavily and scored sparingly. The away side's tactical setup emphasizes quick transitions and effective finishing, contrasting with Gaziantep FK's difficulties in both attack and defense. This match offers Kasımpaşa a chance to consolidate their top-table status against a side fighting to avoid the relegation zone.

BT4Y best bet

Kasımpaşa to Win

  • Kasımpaşa holds a strong 70% to win, with positive value at 2.7 .
  • Gaziantep FK have scored only 0.4 goals per game recently, while conceding 2.4, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Kasımpaşa averages 1.6 goals per game and concedes just 1.2, showing better balance.
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, suggesting attacking openness.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Kasımpaşa to win based on their superior recent form, higher league standing, and more effective attacking and defensive metrics. Kasımpaşa's ability to create quality chances, led by striker A. Benedyczak's goal threat, contrasts with Gaziantep FK's struggles to convert shots despite high volume. The price offers clear value given the implied chance is significantly lower than the model's 70% win probability. This pick is supported by consistent team performance data and player-level attacking efficiency.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance52% model chance vs 37% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Goals For/AgainstKasımpaşa 1.6/1.2 vs Gaziantep FK 0.4/2.4
Strong positive
Key Player ImpactA. Benedyczak 6 goals, 1.46 SOT/90
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Kasımpaşa's tactical discipline and sharper attacking edge make them the likely winners in this matchup. Their recent form and league position reflect a team capable of exploiting Gaziantep FK's defensive vulnerabilities. The data supports backing Kasımpaşa to secure the three points with .

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Kasımpaşa's efficient attack, spearheaded by Benedyczak, combined with Gaziantep FK's defensive struggles, sets a clear path for the away side to claim victory in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Kasımpaşa to Win evidence

Kasımpaşa holds a strong 70% to win, with positive value at 2.7 .

Gaziantep FK have scored only 0.4 goals per game recently, while conceding 2.4, indicating defensive frailty.

Kasımpaşa averages 1.6 goals per game and concedes just 1.2, showing better balance.

Both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, suggesting attacking openness.

What To Watch In The Data

Kasımpaşa to Win notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 3.7 goals, highlighting a trend for high-scoring encounters.
  • Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rate of 60% supports expectations of an open game with multiple goal-scoring opportunities, driven by attacking styles and defensive lapses.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gaziantep FK0.4
Avg goals scored
Kasımpaşa1.6
Gaziantep FK2.4
Avg goals conceded
Kasımpaşa1.2
Gaziantep FK40%
BTTS rate
Kasımpaşa60%
Gaziantep FK60%
Over 2.5 goals
Kasımpaşa60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 54% · edge +7.8 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 80%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating an open game with attacking intent. Kasımpaşa's higher scoring rate and Gaziantep FK's defensive weaknesses suggest multiple goal opportunities, supporting a lively goals market and BTTS potential.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickKasımpaşa to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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Kasımpaşa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The 52% for Kasımpaşa to Win sits against roughly 37% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Kasımpaşa have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 0 for Gaziantep FK.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gaziantep FK

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
01 Nov 2026A Trabzonspor0-2
24 Oct 2026H Erzurumspor FK1-3
18 Oct 2026A Başakşehir1-2
11 Oct 2026H Çorum FK0-3
19 Sep 2026A Kocaelispor0-2

Kasımpaşa

DWWLD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 5D 1L
01 Nov 2026H Beşiktaş2-2
24 Oct 2026A Eyüpspor1-0
18 Oct 2026H Samsunspor4-1
09 Oct 2026A Galatasaray1-3
18 Sep 2026H Konyaspor0-0
Market aligned with main pickKasımpaşa to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Kasımpaşa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Recent form data highlights Kasımpaşa's superior performance with 8 points gained and a positive goal difference, contrasting with Gaziantep FK's 0 points and defensive frailty. This momentum advantage underpins Kasımpaşa's and tactical execution heading into the match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Gaziantep FK Over 2.5
60%Kasımpaşa Over 2.5
3.7H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches average 3.7 goals, highlighting a trend for high-scoring encounters. Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rate of 60% supports expectations of an open game with multiple goal-scoring opportunities, driven by attacking styles and defensive lapses.

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