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FC Thun crestFC Thun
v
Heart Of Midlothian crestHeart Of Midlothian

UEFA Europa Conference League | Thu 05 Nov, 17:45

FC Thun v Heart Of Midlothian Stats

Data last updated: Wed 04 Nov 2026, 08:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This UEFA Europa Conference League fixture features FC Thun hosting Heart Of Midlothian in a contest where both teams have shown cautious attacking output recently. FC Thun have yet to score or earn points in their recent outings, while Heart Of Midlothian have managed a single goal and a narrow win, reflecting a measured tempo and defensive focus. The tactical setup suggests a tight match with limited goal-scoring opportunities, as both sides aim to avoid early setbacks in this knockout phase. The encounter promises a disciplined battle with an emphasis on defensive solidity and controlled possession.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • FC Thun have not scored or earned points recently, indicating low attacking threat.
  • Heart Of Midlothian average 1.5 goals conceded per game, showing defensive resilience.
  • Both teams have low Over 2.5 Goals rates: 0% for FC Thun, 25% for Heart Of Midlothian.
  • Shot data shows modest attacking volume, with FC Thun averaging 9 shots and Hearts 14.75 per game.
  • Player stats highlight key shooters but no prolific goal scorers, supporting a low-scoring outlook.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% chance, reflecting the defensive tendencies and recent low-scoring matches from both sides. FC Thun's lack of goals and Hearts' moderate scoring rate combine with cautious tactical approaches in European competition to suggest limited goal opportunities. Shot and BTTS data reinforce a controlled tempo with few clear chances. The price offers positive value given the implied chance of 41.7%, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible selection for this fixture.

Model Chance56.7% model chance vs 41.7% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance56.7% model chance vs 41.7% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Goals DataLow scoring from both teams
Positive
Shot VolumeModest shots and shots on target
Positive
BTTS RatesLow BTTS from FC Thun, moderate from Hearts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a fitting selection given the defensive discipline both teams have shown recently. FC Thun's struggles to score and Heart Of Midlothian's cautious approach in European competition suggest a tight match with limited goal-scoring chances. The data supports a low-scoring game where both sides prioritize structure over risk.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and scoring outlook

“This fixture is poised for a tactical chess match where defensive organization will dominate. The lack of prolific scorers and recent low goal returns point toward a match unlikely to exceed two goals.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

FC Thun have not scored or earned points recently, indicating low attacking threat.

Heart Of Midlothian average 1.5 goals conceded per game, showing defensive resilience.

Shot data shows modest attacking volume, with FC Thun averaging 9 shots and Hearts 14.75 per game.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have maintained low goal averages, with no previous head-to-head data to suggest otherwise.
  • The trend points to a slow tempo and defensive caution, making Over 2.5 Goals unlikely and reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals selection as the more probable outcome.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FC Thun0
Avg goals scored
Heart Of Midlothian1
FC Thun1
Avg goals conceded
Heart Of Midlothian1.5
FC Thun0%
BTTS rate
Heart Of Midlothian75%
FC Thun0%
Over 2.5 goals
Heart Of Midlothian25%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Both teams exhibit low goal-scoring and BTTS rates, with FC Thun yet to score in recent matches and Heart Of Midlothian showing a modest 25% Over 2.5 rate. This points to a game where goals will be scarce and both teams may not score, aligning with a low-scoring, cautious match environment.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Europa Conference League fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionHeart Of Midlothian to WinBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 33% · edge +5.4 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
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Heart Of Midlothian Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
FC Thun Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
FC Thun to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The 56.7% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 41.7% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for FC Thun and 25% for Heart Of Midlothian, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FC Thun

LL
Last 50W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 2L
22 Oct 2026H HNK Hajduk Split0-1
15 Oct 2026A Twente0-1

Heart Of Midlothian

LDDD
Last 50W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 1L
22 Oct 2026A Trabzonspor0-2
15 Oct 2026H FC Nordsjaelland1-1
26 Aug 2026A Rapid Vienna1-1
20 Aug 2026H Rapid Vienna2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 60% · edge +3.4 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Heart Of Midlothian to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
3
Check odds @ 3
Heart Of Midlothian Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 61%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
FC Thun Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
FC Thun to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Recent form data shows FC Thun with zero points and goals, highlighting offensive struggles. Heart Of Midlothian's single win and goal scored reflect a more stable but still cautious approach. Both teams' low Over 2.5 Goals rates reinforce expectations of a tight, low-scoring encounter consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%FC Thun Over 2.5
25%Heart Of Midlothian Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have maintained low goal averages, with no previous head-to-head data to suggest otherwise. The trend points to a slow tempo and defensive caution, making Over 2.5 Goals unlikely and reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals selection as the more probable outcome.

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